Aluminium Holds Near Multi-Year Highs As Inventories, Premiums, And A Soft Dollar Steer Trade
Key Points
- Aluminium hovered near $3,000 a tonne after a thin holiday session, with China’s SHFE shut and the dollar softer.
- Traders kept fixating on where metal sits, as LME stocks and cancelled warrants swung sharply in late December.
- US physical tightness remains the loudest signal, with elevated Midwest premiums and policy-driven frictions shaping “all-in” prices.
Aluminium began 2026 holding its gains, but the rally looked more like controlled grip than fresh breakout. On the TradingView/Capital.com feed, the price was $2,988.3 per tonne at 07:57 UTC.
The day’s range sat near $2,976.8–$2,990.3. LME three-month aluminium traded around $2,988–2,990 per tonne on December 31, 2025, and then crossed above $3,000, reaching about $3,015.5 per tonne on January 2, 2026. The small gap between the CFD feed and LME is normal.
Overnight price action was muted by holiday conditions. China’s SHFE was closed, limiting arbitrage and reducing liquidity.
A softer US dollar added support, as it often does for dollar-priced metals. The result was a market that refused to give much back, rather than one charging higher.
Aluminium tightness drives premiums
The last week’s narrative stayed anchored in “availability,” not just price. Late December saw LME opening stocks cited near 509,250 tonnes, with cancelled warrants swinging alongside.
By Dec. 31, another update put LME opening stock at 511,750 tonnes, while cancelled warrants continued easing. These shifts matter because on-warrant versus cancelled metal can tighten nearby conditions quickly.
China’s signals were more mixed. SHFE aluminium futures warrants were reported at 81,669 tonnes on Dec. 31, up 3,164 day-on-day and up 5,233 over the week. That hints at near-term stock building into the holiday period.
Outside China, the physical story remains loudest in the United States. Midwest premiums have been pushed higher by tariffs and supply frictions, making the “all-in” price diverge from the LME screen.
The CME’s Platts-linked Midwest premium for Jan. 2026 sat near $0.9075 per pound, or about $2,001 per tonne. In Europe, market participants also watched Platts methodology changes effective Jan. 2, 2026 for a new duty-unpaid calculation series.
Upstream risk still shadows the tape. Bauxite and alumina disruptions, including Guinea-linked uncertainty, keep a risk premium alive. Technicals show strength with stretch.
On your charts, 4-hour RSI sat near 64 with a positive but fading MACD histogram. The daily RSI was near 69, and the weekly RSI near 73. Resistance clusters near $2,998–$3,000. First supports sit near $2,950, then $2,910–$2,920.
ETF-style flow data was not cleanly verifiable this morning, but aluminium-linked ETPs were still trading near highs. The WisdomTree Aluminium line was quoted around 3.919. The next test comes when China reopens and spreads, basis, and inventories start speaking again.
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