Argentina Country Risk Is Down on the Week, Up on the Month
ARGENTINA · MARKETS
Key Facts
- —Where it stands 490 basis points, the last published print, dated Friday 4 September 2026.
- —On the week Down from 501 on 1 September, and it has been under 500 since 2 September.
- —The catch It is up from 451 a month ago. The easing narrative only works on a one-week view.
- —No Monday print Wall Street was shut for Labor Day, so the index produced no new reading.
- —Who publishes it J.P. Morgan, as the EMBI spread of Argentine sovereign bonds over US Treasuries.
- —The external drag US Treasury yields between 4.55 and 5.27 percent are the highest since October 2023.
Argentina country risk below 500 reads as progress. Measured against a month ago it is a step backwards, and Monday produced no reading at all.
Argentina country risk sits at 490 basis points. That is the last published print, from Friday 4 September.
Monday produced no reading. Wall Street was closed for Labor Day, so the index had no price signals to work from.
On the week the direction is down. It was 501 on 1 September and fell below 500 the following day, touching 493 intraday.
On the month the direction is up. It stood at 451 on 7 August, which makes the current level 39 points worse.
Why the Argentina Country Risk Framing Matters
Below 500 has become a psychological marker in Argentine coverage. Crossing it is reported as an achievement.
That is true against last week and false against last month. Both comparisons are accurate and they point in opposite directions.
The index measures what investors demand to hold Argentine sovereign debt over United States Treasuries. J.P. Morgan publishes it as part of its emerging markets bond index.
At 490 points, Argentina still pays nearly five percentage points more than the United States government. That is not a normalised borrower.
What Is Pulling It Down
The fiscal side is the government’s strongest card. Zero-deficit targets have held and the central bank has been buying dollars.
Reserves have moved above 50 billion dollars. Argentina also recorded its first external surplus since 2019.
Monthly inflation has been consolidating near 1.7 percent rather than the 2 percent that had looked like a floor. Peso rates have been falling and the exchange rate has been steady.
Oil near 97 dollars a barrel helps an economy with a growing energy export balance. A Citi note argued the market was exaggerating political risk.
What Is Pushing It Up
The election calendar is the domestic drag. The proximity of the presidential vote adds constraints that markets price whether or not anything happens.
Central bank dollar purchases have slowed and agricultural liquidations have thinned. Both reduce the flow that has been supporting the peso.
The external picture is heavier. US Treasury yields between 4.55 and 5.27 percent are the highest since October 2023, which pressures every emerging market asset.
American payrolls came in at 162,000 against 55,000 expected. Strong US data raises the return on the safest alternative to Argentine debt.
A Note on the Numbers You Will See
Automatically generated indicator pages have been publishing figures far outside the mainstream range. One showed 850 points for 1 September.
That is inconsistent with every established outlet and is simply wrong. The series used here comes from Infobae’s daily market reporting on the J.P. Morgan index.
There is also no figure for 8 September itself. Anyone quoting one today is quoting Friday’s.
What to Watch
The first marker is Tuesday’s reopening. Two sessions without a print leaves the index stale.
The second is whether 490 holds through the campaign. The August level of 451 shows how quickly it moves.
The third is the US yield curve. Argentina’s spread narrows when Treasuries fall, regardless of anything decided in Buenos Aires.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Argentina’s country risk right now?
490 basis points, the last published print, dated Friday 4 September 2026. No reading was published on Monday 7 September because Wall Street was closed for Labor Day.
Is it improving?
It depends on the comparison. It is down from 501 a week earlier, but up from 451 a month earlier. The easing story holds on a one-week view and reverses on a one-month view.
Who calculates it?
J.P. Morgan, as the EMBI spread of Argentine sovereign bonds over US Treasuries. At 490 points Argentina pays nearly five percentage points more than the United States government to borrow.
Sources: J.P. Morgan EMBI, Infobae, Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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