With half the death rate of Brazil, Europe bets on lockdowns against a 3rd wave

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The governments of France and other countries, such as Italy, Germany and the Netherlands, see signs of the emergence of a third wave of the disease and have begun to close doors, prepare for it, or postpone reopenings.

Currently, the coronavirus kills about 10 people a day in Brazil for every 1 million inhabitants. In the European Union, the daily rate is almost 5 deaths per million. Both are on an upward trajectory, but in a more accentuated way in Brazil.

If we consider the data from the largest countries in the European bloc, Poland leads with 7.6 deaths per million each day, followed by Italy (6.3), France (3.9), Spain (2.5), and Germany (2.2).

This is the picture of the situation on 3/18, but it is likely to get worse because cases are increasing and deaths are also likely to increase in the following weeks.

The situation in Paris is particularly worrying, with almost 1,200 people in intensive care in hospitals, more than at the peak of the second wave in November, according to French Health Minister Olivier Véran.

Starting this Friday (19/3) there will be non-essential trade closures in 16 French regions where nearly 21 million people live, including the capital, Paris.

But the measures this time will not be as strict as in the previous lockdown, said Prime Minister Jean Castex. People will be allowed to exercise outdoors, schools will remain open, but travel between cities can only be made for essential reasons, for example.

The new lockdown in France was announced just days after a similar announcement in Italy.

Currently, schools, stores and restaurants are closed in more than half of Italy, including the two most populous regions, where Rome and Milan are located. Residents will be forced to stay at home except for work, health, or other essential reasons.

The term lockdown does not refer to the same set of measures, it has become synonymous with strict measures but there are different levels, and each country or region adopts its own restrictions, with different times and sectors affected differently.

According to a survey conducted by UNESCO (the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization), 29 countries currently adopt partial or total closure of schools.

In Europe, countries like Portugal and Ireland have their educational institutions completely closed, and Germany, Italy and the Netherlands partially open. On the other hand, the UK, France, and Spain do not adopt restrictions.

This may change as cases on the continent progress. As an example of the differences between countries, schools will stay open in French regions under lockdown, but will be closed in Italian regions that have restricted the movement of people.

“I am aware that today’s restrictions will have consequences on the education of your children, on the economy and on everyone’s mental health,” said Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi. “But they are necessary to avoid a worsening of the situation that would require even stricter measures.” In most Italian regions, “hospitals and especially intensive care units are already overloaded,” the Gimbe center for health studies warned this week, according to the AFP news agency.

Other countries on the continent face advances. Poland recorded nearly 21,000 new cases daily in the middle of this month, the highest number since November.

Germany has recorded a rapid rise in infections among schoolchildren, mainly with new variants of the coronavirus, such as the one discovered in the UK. German authorities fear an “exponential” increase in cases and, by extension, hospital overcrowding. “It is very possible that we will have during Easter a similar situation as we had before Christmas, with a very high number of cases, many severe cases and deaths and crowded hospitals,” said Lars Schaade, vice president of the Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases.

Even still under strict measures, Germany and the Netherlands, for example, have recorded increases in cases and have started to reconsider the timetable outlined for gradually reopening the economy.

Lockdown around the world and Bolsonaro’s reactions

A survey by Oxford University in the UK shows that the two regions with most countries adopting strict measures on the movement of people are Europe and Latin America.

In Latin America, six countries have schools completely closed: Mexico, Bolivia, Venezuela, Honduras, Panama, and the Dominican Republic.

Brazil is in the group of countries with partial opening, along with others such as Chile, Argentina and Uruguay. Only Nicaragua, Peru, Suriname and Cuba have educational institutions completely open in the region.

Brazil is currently facing the biggest health and hospital collapse in its history, according to Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), and the tendency is to get worse.

Amid the scenario of crowded hospitals and lack of medicines and health professionals, the pressure for lockdowns in the country is growing, as well as the criticism of President Jair Bolsonaro to this policy.

Bolsonaro even appealed to the Supreme Court to overturn trade closures in Bahia, in the Federal District, and in Rio Grande do Sul. He argues that this type of measure depends on the approval of the Legislature, and not only through decrees issued by governors.

In a live broadcast on social networks on Thursday (18/3), he again criticized isolation measures, classified the World Health Organization (WHO) as “discredited” and said that the body does not recommend lockdown as a measure to contain the pandemic – which is incorrect.

“Staying home is a cool thing, who doesn’t want to stay home on vacation,” the president ironized, in contrast to his peers around the world.

“I always preached, back there, vertical isolation. Special care for the elderly, those with co-morbidities, and the obese. And the rest have to go back to normality,” he said, again contradicting evidence pointed out by authorities such as Israeli epidemiologist Gabriel Barbash, former director-general of the Israeli Ministry of Health, who in a recent interview to BBC News Brazil said that “there is no doubt” about the effectiveness of lockdowns in fighting covid-19.

At several points, the Brazilian president criticized those who have sought to work from home to slow the upward curve of contaminations. “It’s very easy for me to adhere to lockdown. ‘Lockdown, lock everything down.’ It’s cool, it’s politically correct. I would be betraying my conscience if I acted that way.”

Again advocating alternative treatments that are not indicated by the international scientific community, the president even joked and reproduced choking sounds emitted by people short of breath because of the disease. “The appeal I make to those who are against it…. No problem. If you start to feel a weird business, follow Minister Mandetta’s prescription. Go home, and when you are there… (Bolsonaro starts making choking sounds) with shortness of breath, then you go to the hospital.”

Vaccine shortage

Another factor that aggravates the pandemic situation is that both the European Union and Brazil have not yet managed to advance vaccination and feel the positive effects in the reduction of deaths, as it was felt in Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States, for example.

The problem got even worse in the European continent because several countries suspended the application of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine for fear of blood clots as a side effect, but the suspicions proved unfounded, according to the European Medicines Agency.

In Brazil, 4.6% of the population has already received the first dose. Italy, France and Germany vaccinated 8.3%, and the UK, 38%. The most advanced country in this respect is Israel, with 59.5% of its inhabitants immunized with at least one dose.

Among these countries, Brazil has the highest daily death rate per 1 million inhabitants (9.8), followed by Italy (6.3), France (3.9), Germany (2.2), Israel (1.7), and the UK (1.6).

Brazil was the only one among them not to adopt national lockdown at any time. On the other hand, all the countries compared above began vaccination while strict measures were in place, which further slowed the spread of the disease.

Source: BBC Brasil