War in Ukraine: 65% of Brazilians agree with Brazil’s neutrality

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Almost two weeks ago, Russia started a war against Ukraine. Despite having repudiated and condemned the Russian military operation during the General Assembly and Security Council votes, both at the United Nations (UN), President Jair Bolsonaro has adopted a neutral stance towards the conflict. Most Brazilians, 65%, agree with the country’s impartiality.

The most recent EXAME/IDEIA survey heard 1,269 people between March 5 and 8. The interviews were done by telephone, with calls to both fixed and cell phones. The margin of error is three percentage points higher or lower. The EXAME/IDEIA survey is a project that unites EXAME and IDEIA, a research institute specialized in public opinion.

Maurício Moura, founder of IDEIA and professor at George Washington University in the USA, explains that Brazilian public opinion typically does not support the country’s involvement in foreign policy issues. However, he points out that there is a significant number who think the country should take some side, whether in favor of Ukraine or Russia.

“The question about neutrality is much more about Brazil not getting directly involved in the war than the position of President Jair Bolsonaro. That’s how the respondents perceived the issue. But a significant number think that Brazil should not stay neutral [35%], which is a high number, given Brazil’s history in military, geopolitical issues around the world,” says Maurício Moura.

Among those interviewed, 62% think that Ukraine is right in the conflict, and only 6% believe that Russia is right. A portion of 32% says they don’t know which of the two countries is right.

“The overwhelming majority of the Brazilian population favors the Ukrainian cause. It is noteworthy that the higher education and income level, this number goes over 70%. So, the support of Brazilian public opinion concerning Ukraine is quite clear,” says Maurício Moura.

IMPACT OF THE WAR ON THE ECONOMY

Even though the war is miles away from Brazil, the impacts have already reached the country. One of the most immediate is the price of a barrel of oil, which surpassed 130 dollars on Monday, July 7, and tends to rise even more. All this puts pressure on the price of gasoline and diesel at the service stations since the price table practiced by Petrobras is linked to the international price.

For 65%, the armed conflict in Europe will reflect on the Brazilian economy. Other 57% believe that the consequence will be on agribusiness. The concern with the agribusiness sector grows in some regions that depend more economically on the activity, such as the North (65%) and the Center-West (58%).

Analysts of the agribusiness sector have been speaking cautiously about the impacts of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The main point of attention is in the fertilizers and chemical fertilizers group, which account for more than 60% of everything Brazil imports from Russia. The European country is the leading supplier of these products to the entire planet.

“Brazil is very dependent on Russia in the case of fertilizers. It is our main trade partner, with 23% of imports. But the whole world depends on Russia to purchase fertilizers,” details Bruno Fonseca, sector analyst for the input market at Rabobank Brazil, specializing in agribusiness markets.

Last week, the Minister of Agriculture, Livestock, and Supply, Tereza Cristina, said Brazil has guaranteed fertilizers stocks until October. But the summer crop, which begins to be planted between September and October, generates concern.

Another item that should suffer impacts from the war is wheat. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, large producers of grain, Russia and Ukraine, represent almost 30% of the export market of the commodity. Despite not having significant purchases from the two countries (most of it comes from Argentina), Brazil will feel the effects of the increase in the general price.

Higher food and fuel prices resulting from the war are precisely the biggest concern for Brazilians. “This leads to a feeling that we will have bad months regarding inflation. The theme that was already very strong in people’s minds pre-war will continue to be present because this expectation of worsening prices feeds inflation even more,” says Maurício Moura, founder of IDEIA.

With information from EXAME