Venezuela Power Crisis Casts Shadow Over Washington’s Oil Deal Timetable
Venezuela · Energy
Key Facts
—The question. El Estímulo asks whether Venezuela’s power crisis endangers Washington’s oil plans: blackouts hit several states again this week while the government negotiates what the outlet calls the biggest oil deal in the country’s history.
—The deficit. Sector analysts put the grid’s structural shortfall at about 2,000 megawatts against national demand of more than 14,000, according to El Estímulo, which reports that more than half the population lives under power rationing.
—The plan. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced agreements with GE Vernova in Caracas on September 3: restart existing assets within six to twelve months, then 1 gigawatt of new capacity in two years and 5 more gigawatts in the following four.
—The outages. A severe fluctuation on Tuesday night cut power across greater Caracas and at least ten states; another cut hit on Thursday night. Corpoelec offered no technical explanation.
—The workaround. Since June, a regulatory reform of the Hydrocarbons Law has required oil companies — Chevron included — to install their own generation and run off the national grid where possible, according to El Estímulo.
—The stakes. Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros estimates Venezuelan oil output will grow by more than 280,000 barrels a day this year — growth that needs electricity the current system cannot reliably supply.
Venezuela’s power crisis is colliding with Washington’s oil timetable: as blackouts swept Caracas and at least ten states this week, El Estímulo asked whether a grid running some 2,000 megawatts short can carry what it calls the biggest oil deal in the country’s history.
A Week of Outages, No Official Explanation
On Tuesday, September 8, at around 7:18 p.m., a severe fluctuation in the National Electric System interrupted service and triggered voltage drops across greater Caracas — including the Distrito Capital — and at least ten states, among them Miranda, La Guaira, Aragua, Carabobo, Anzoátegui, Sucre, Nueva Esparta, Zulia, Táchira, Mérida, Trujillo and Barinas, El Nacional reported. Parts of Guarenas and Guatire, satellite cities east of the capital, went dark; residents reported smaller fluctuations earlier the same day.
On Thursday night, several states lost power again, El Estímulo reported on Friday. How long each cut lasted is impossible to establish: the state utility Corpoelec offered no technical explanation, and information was pieced together, as usual, on social media under the hashtag #SinLuz — “without light.”
The pattern is chronic. Rotating blackouts and simultaneous failures have become routine across much of the country, on a system that sector analysts estimate is running with a structural deficit of about 2,000 megawatts against national demand of more than 14,000, El Estímulo reported. According to the outlet, more than half of Venezuelans live under some form of power rationing, and daily outages — scheduled or not — hit the provinces harder than Caracas.
Wright’s Plan: Six to Twelve Months Just to Stabilize
The latest plan to reverse the deficit arrived on September 3, when US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced in Caracas a set of agreements with GE Vernova to intervene in electric infrastructure tied to the oil industry and to recover components of the national grid together with state oil company Pdvsa and Corpoelec. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez called the deal a “historic step” — the first time a government of the Chavista movement has contracted a US company to maintain or renew the country’s electric service.
Wright’s own timetable is sobering. The first phase aims to restart assets that already exist — among them the Guri hydroelectric dam, which Wright said produces only half of the energy it was designed for because turbines and transmission lines have gone without maintenance — within six to twelve months. Only then would come 1 gigawatt of new capacity in two years, and another 5 gigawatts in the four years after that. Full stabilization, on that schedule, is a six-year project with first improvements visible within a year.
That is the tension at the heart of the story: the ceremony was immediate, the megawatts are not. The same week that Washington’s energy chief toured Venezuela to unveil the package, the grid failed twice in three days.
Why Oil Needs the Grid
Electricity is not a side issue to the oil deal — it is a precondition. Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros told Unión Radio this week that rising oil and mining output puts pressure on a system already operating without margin. “It is what economists call a supply constraint,” he said — an obstacle that slows growth because it is not in step with the pace of the country. Carabobo state, the heart of Venezuela’s industrial base, is suffering one of its most critical electricity situations, with deterioration that has worsened over the past three months.
Part of the official answer is to take the oil industry out of that bottleneck. Since June, a regulatory reform of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law has required oil companies operating in Venezuela — Chevron included — to install their own power generation and function, as far as possible, off the national grid, according to El Estímulo. But as the outlet notes, that does not solve the underlying problem: even if new fields generate their own electricity, the expansion promised under the agreement with Nabep — more wells, more rigs, more treatment plants — still depends on contractors, transport and the cities where the workforce lives, all of which run on the public grid.
Oliveros estimates Venezuelan oil production grew by some 100,000 barrels a day in 2025 and will close this year with an increase of more than 280,000 barrels a day — nearly triple — with another 300,000 projected for 2027, according to El Estímulo. The visible economic effects, he cautions, will only be felt toward the second half of 2027 and in 2028 — roughly the same horizon on which Washington’s promised new generation capacity is supposed to arrive.
The Questions Left Hanging
For foreign residents and investors, the opacity surrounding both the oil contract and the power plan leaves the same questions El Estímulo poses: how much will fixing the grid cost, who will pay for it — and will the lights stop going out? Until the answers arrive, every megawatt of promised oil growth travels through a network that failed twice this week alone.
As The Rio Times reported this morning, Venezuelan crude production is already holding at a seven-year high. Sustaining and expanding it is exactly what the power system, in its current state, is least prepared to do.
Frequently Asked Questions
How bad is Venezuela’s power crisis right now?
Sector analysts estimate a structural deficit of about 2,000 megawatts against demand above 14,000. More than half the population faces rationing, and this week alone outages hit greater Caracas and at least ten states on Tuesday night, with further cuts on Thursday night. Corpoelec has given no technical explanation.
What did the US announce for Venezuela’s electric grid?
On September 3 in Caracas, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced agreements with GE Vernova, Pdvsa and Corpoelec: restart existing assets — including the Guri dam, running at half capacity — within six to twelve months, then add 1 gigawatt in two years and 5 more gigawatts over the following four.
Does the power crisis threaten the US-Venezuela oil deal?
Yes, according to El Estímulo’s analysis: oil expansion needs electricity the grid cannot reliably supply. A June reform forces oil firms to generate their own power, but contractors, transport and workers’ cities still depend on the public network.
Connected Coverage
The Rio Times is tracking the US-Venezuela energy package as it moves from announcement to implementation.
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Sources: El Estímulo; El Nacional; Unión Radio; US Embassy Caracas.
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