The Big Three
COLCAP fell −1.77% to 2,233.40, erasing most of Wednesday’s +1.61% rally as oil rebounded on the collapse of Iran peace hopes. Decliners overwhelmed advancers, led by Nutresa (−5.96%), Cementos Argos (−5.94%), and Grupo Sura (−5.61%).
The peso defied the equity selloff, with the TRM at COP 3,688.46 — its lowest reading since March 16. The SPOT average fell to COP 3,683.74, five pesos below the TRM, as the currency continued to benefit from carry flows and a weaker dollar.
Wall Street reversed Wednesday’s optimism as Iran peace talks stalled. The S&P 500 opened down −0.80%, while oil rebounded on Hormuz supply fears, erasing much of the prior session’s de-escalation trade.
01 Market Snapshot — USD COP Today
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| COLCAP Close | 2,233.40 | −1.77% |
| COLCAP ATH (Jan 27) | 2,562.00 | −12.83% |
| USD/COP TRM (Mar 26) | 3,688.46 | −0.33% |
| USD/COP SPOT Average | 3,683.74 | 1-week low |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | +100 bps (Jan 30) |
| Ecopetrol | COP 2,245 | +1.35% |
| Brent Crude | ~$103 | ↑ rebound |
| S&P 500 (Open Mar 26) | — | −0.80% |
| Coffee (C) | $301.45 | +2.26% |
02 Equities
The USD COP today fell to a one-week low of COP 3,683.74, but that peso strength could not shield equities from a sharp reversal. COLCAP dropped −1.77% to 2,233.40, giving back nearly all of Wednesday’s +1.61% advance as Iran’s rejection of the ceasefire proposal sent oil climbing again. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
The selloff was concentrated in conglomerates and consumer names. Nutresa plunged −5.96% to COP 300,000, Cementos Argos shed −5.94%, and Grupo Sura lost −5.61%. Against the tide, Ecopetrol rose +1.35% to COP 2,245 — a rare green session for the state oil company, buoyed by the Brent rebound — while Mineros gained +3.58% to COP 19,680 and Grupo Bolívar added +3.29%.
The Ecopetrol board meets March 30 to revisit the Ricardo Roa governance crisis. La Silla Vacía reported no resolution was reached on March 24, and the USO strike threat remains on the table. Coffee futures climbed +2.26% to $301.45, providing a cushion for Colombia’s agricultural export balance.
03 Currency
The peso’s decoupling from equities was Thursday’s most notable development. The TRM at COP 3,688.46 marked the lowest reading since March 16, while the SPOT average landed at COP 3,683.74 — five pesos below the official rate. Noticias Caracol noted this was the first sustained move below 3,700 in over a week.
BanRep’s 10.25% policy rate continues to anchor carry-trade flows. Year-to-date, the peso has appreciated against the dollar, and El Universal noted that the dollar has been the best-performing currency globally since the Iran war began — yet the peso has still managed to strengthen, a testament to Colombia’s yield differential.
04 Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily
The index opened at 2,266.69, tried to hold Wednesday’s gains near the 2,273 high, but sellers dominated from mid-session, pushing the close to 2,233.40 — a red candle that engulfed most of the prior day’s body. The session low of 2,231.93 holds just above the 2,226 support zone.
The MACD histogram at 9.52 remains marginally positive but is fading rapidly. RSI at 47.85/43.88 has slipped back below 50, canceling the tentative bullish signal from Wednesday. The 200-day SMA sits at approximately 1,996, well below current levels.
05 Key Levels
| Level | COLCAP |
| Resistance 3 | 2,302.50 |
| Resistance 2 | 2,293.41 |
| Resistance 1 | 2,257.76 |
| Current Close | 2,233.40 |
| Support 1 | 2,226.79 |
| Support 2 | 2,211.67 |
| Support 3 | 2,124.95 |
06 Global Context
The risk-on mood evaporated overnight as Iran rejected the 15-point ceasefire and Brent rebounded toward $103. Wall Street opened lower with the S&P 500 down −0.80%, the Nasdaq −1.14%, and the Dow −0.49%. The dollar held firm globally amid expectations the Fed will stand pat all year.
07 Looking Ahead
Monday’s Ecopetrol board meeting on March 30 is the week’s defining event for Colombian equities. A removal of Roa would likely trigger a relief rally in Ecopetrol and the broader index; retention would crystallize the USO strike risk and could weigh on the stock further.
The peso-equity divergence bears watching. If the peso keeps strengthening while COLCAP sells off, it suggests foreign fixed-income flows are entering Colombia for the 10.25% yield while equity investors remain cautious. This dynamic favors Colombian bonds over equities in the near term.
08 Verdict
Thursday’s −1.77% reversal confirmed that Wednesday’s bounce was a dead-cat rally rather than a trend change. RSI slipping back below 50, the bearish engulfing candle, and the fading MACD histogram all point to continued range-bound trading between the 2,210 support and 2,300 resistance until a clear catalyst — either Roa’s exit or a Brent drop below $100 — breaks the impasse.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bearish. The peso’s strength is a positive outlier, but the equity market is trading on oil and governance headlines rather than fundamentals. Sellers have the edge until either macro risk or the Ecopetrol saga resolves.