USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 13, 2026: The Number Under The Number
Executive Summary
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for August 13: American producer prices were flat in July and the annual rate fell to 4.7%, but the measure feeding the
Rio Times · USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 13
Key Facts
—Flat on the month American producer prices for final demand were unchanged in July, below the small rise economists expected.
—The annual rate fell Producer prices rose 4.7% over the twelve months to July, down from 5.5% through June.
—Goods fell, services rose Final demand goods prices dropped 0.7% while services rose 0.2%, with energy down 3.1% and gasoline 5.7%.
—The number underneath Prices excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4%, four times June’s pace.
—What drove it Portfolio management fees surged 6.5%, a component that feeds directly into the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve prefers.
—Canada counts down A 50% American tariff on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods takes effect in six days.
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 13 — The headline said American wholesale inflation had stopped rising.
The measure that feeds the central bank’s preferred gauge quadrupled its monthly pace.
United States – A Reassuring Headline
Unchanged, and down over the year
Producer prices for final demand were unchanged in July, the labour statistics bureau reported on Thursday morning, below the modest rise economists had forecast. Over the twelve months to July they rose 4.7%, down from 5.5% through June.
Final demand goods prices fell 0.7% while services rose 0.2%. Energy prices dropped 3.1% and gasoline 5.7%, with food down 0.9%.
Two days of data pointing one way
Consumer prices on Wednesday came in exactly as forecast at 3.4% over the year, easing from 3.5%. Producer prices on Thursday were softer than expected and their annual rate fell nearly a point.
Read together, that is a country whose wholesale inflation stopped rising in a month when energy fell hard. It is also not the whole release.
The Component Nobody Headlines
Nought point four, from nought point one
Prices excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4% in July, four times the 0.1% recorded in June. That narrower measure strips out the volatile components and is watched precisely because it does.
A 6.5% surge in portfolio management fees was a principal driver. Those fees are among the categories that feed directly into the personal consumption expenditures index, which is the gauge the central bank actually targets.
Why the timing matters
That preferred gauge is published on the twenty-sixth of August, and today’s component readings are among its inputs. A reassuring headline in the middle of the month can precede an unwelcome figure at the end of it.
The temper of the release is exactly this contradiction. One number says the pressure eased and another says it moved somewhere less visible.
The Federal Reserve – An Argument Still Unresolved
A public case for raising
Cleveland Federal Reserve president Beth Hammack wrote publicly on Tuesday that now is the time to act, arguing that delay would make returning inflation to 2% harder and more expensive. She dissented at the July meeting in favour of raising.
Two days of softer data do not settle that argument, they postpone it. The institution has held rates while central banks in Europe and Japan raised theirs.
And the wage gap that has not closed
Consumer inflation at 3.4% still sits above wage growth of 3.2%, with real average hourly earnings down 0.2% over the year after a 0.1% gain in June, with real average hourly earnings down 0.2% over the year. The household savings rate has fallen to a four-year low.
Falling real income with a shrinking savings buffer is a consumption problem rather than an employment one. Friday’s retail sales are where it would first appear.
American producer prices were flat in July and the annual rate fell to 4.7%, while the narrow measure feeding the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge jumped to 0.4% from 0.1% — a reassuring headline sitting directly on top of an unwelcome component.
The Bond Market – Still Where It Was
Twenty-year highs at the long end
The thirty-year Treasury yield remains near its highest level in two decades, with auctions arriving this week into exactly that. Nothing in either inflation release this week bears directly on it.
The long end prices fiscal expectations rather than the next policy decision. It sets the floor under emerging-market borrowing costs regardless of what happens in September.
Shares near records on earnings
American shares have traded close to record levels after a mild consumer price reading and strong results from companies tied to artificial intelligence. The technology index recovered a near ten percent fall recorded in July.
Strength coming from company results rather than rate expectations is a narrower but more durable foundation. It also depends on one theme continuing to deliver.
Canada – Six Days
The date does not move
A 50% American tariff on roughly 20 billion dollars of Canadian goods takes effect on 19 August, six days from now, covering products that comply with the continental trade agreement. Canada added 75,000 jobs in July and cut unemployment to 6.4%, its lowest since July 2024.
Its ten-year yields have been sitting near 3.68%, more than a point below American equivalents, with at least one analyst house expecting no policy change through 2026. Ottawa has done what it controls.
A quiet central bank in a loud month
The contrast with Washington’s public disagreement is stark. One central bank is arguing with itself in print and the other is expected to sit still for a year.
Canada’s position is competent and constrained in equal measure. That is not a comfortable place to be six days before a tariff.
What This Means From Latin America
Read the twenty-sixth, not the thirteenth
Today’s headline suggests American price pressure is easing, while the narrow component feeding the central bank’s preferred gauge quadrupled its monthly pace. That gauge is published on 26 August and carries more weight for the September decision than either release this week.
Regional borrowers should treat this week’s relief as provisional. The number that decides the dollar has not been published yet.
And watch the barrel from both sides
Energy prices fell 3.1% at the American wholesale level in July, which is much of why the headline was flat. The same barrel has since rallied for six days on Gulf shipping uncertainty.
That means August’s producer figure faces a harder comparison than July’s did. For regional oil exporters it is revenue and for the region’s importers it is a cost, and both effects arrive at once.
The Bigger Picture
American producer prices were unchanged in July and the annual rate fell to 4.7% from 5.5%, with goods down 0.7%, energy down 3.1% and gasoline down 5.7%. Taken with Wednesday’s consumer prices at 3.4%, that is two days of data pointing toward easing.
Underneath it, prices excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4%, four times June’s 0.1%, driven partly by a 6.5% surge in portfolio management fees. Those categories feed directly into the personal consumption expenditures index the Federal Reserve targets, published on 26 August.
For Latin American readers the instruction is narrow. Treat this week’s relief as provisional, watch the twenty-sixth rather than the thirteenth, and note that July’s flat headline rested on an energy decline the barrel has already reversed.
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 13: What We Are Watching
- Friday – Retail sales and consumer sentiment, with the savings rate already at a four-year low.
- 26 August – The personal consumption expenditures index, which today’s components feed into.
- 19 August – The 50% American tariff on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods.
- September – The Federal Reserve meeting, with at least one official publicly arguing to raise.
- This week – Treasury auctions arriving into a thirty-year yield near twenty-year highs.
- Ongoing – The oil price, now rallying for a sixth day after July’s 3.1% wholesale energy decline.
Go Deeper
The full US & Canada Intelligence Dossier — the interactive risk dashboard and the six people who matter — is updated daily by the Rio Times Intelligence Desk.
More from the Rio Times Intelligence Desk on August 13: the Africa Intelligence Brief, the Asia Intelligence Brief and the Europe Intelligence Brief. For how these stories developed, see the USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for August 12 and the USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for August 11.
The USA & Canada Intelligence Brief August 13 returns tomorrow morning.
The Big Picture
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the July producer price report show?
Producer prices for final demand were unchanged in July, below the modest rise economists had forecast, with the twelve-month rate falling to 4.7% from 5.5% through June. Final demand goods prices fell 0.7% while services rose 0.2%, with energy down 3.1%, gasoline down 5.7% and food down 0.9%.
Why is the headline figure not the whole story?
Prices excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4% in July, four times the 0.1% pace recorded in June, driven partly by a 6.5% surge in portfolio management fees. Those categories feed directly into the personal consumption expenditures index that the Federal Reserve targets, which is published on 26 August, so a reassuring mid-month headline can precede a less welcome month-end figure.
How does this fit with Wednesday’s consumer prices?
Consumer prices rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% over the year, easing from 3.5% and matching forecasts exactly, with core at 2.5%. Inflation at 3.4% nonetheless remains above wage growth of 3.2% for a fourth consecutive month, with real average hourly earnings down 0.2% over the year and the household savings rate at a four-year low.
What is Canada facing on 19 August?
A 50% American tariff on roughly 20 billion dollars of Canadian goods takes effect that day, covering products that comply with the continental trade agreement. It arrives despite Canada adding 75,100 jobs in July and cutting unemployment to 6.4%, its lowest since July 2024, with ten-year yields near 3.68% and no policy change expected through 2026.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TechTimes, TradingKey, BLS Producer Price Index
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