Uruguayan Analysts Adjust 2024 Economic Growth Forecast to 3.3%

Uruguayan economists have trimmed the 2024 growth expectations to 3.3%, a subtle dip from June’s 3.35%.

These insights, extracted from the Central Bank of Uruguay’s recent Survey of Expectations, underline a cautious yet hopeful outlook among financial experts.

According to the survey, economic forecasts for 2024 range widely. The most conservative estimate points to a 2.8% GDP increase.

On the flip side, the more optimistic scenario predicts a growth of up to 3.9%. These figures mirror the complex economic terrain Uruguay navigates, shaped by both domestic challenges and global economic trends.

The country’s economic pulse in the early months of 2024 showed a marginal increase of 0.6%.

This follows a 0.4% rise in 2023, affected by drought and the completion of significant construction projects.

Despite these hurdles, the government, led by President Luis Lacalle Pou, projects a rebound, targeting growth rates above 3.0%.

Looking further ahead, the 2025 forecast by the same survey projects a GDP growth of 2.55%. This estimate represents a 0.5% rise from the previous month’s predictions.

Inflation forecasts are also part of this economic mix. Analysts foresee a 5.5% inflation rate for 2024, with an expected 0.4% uptick in July.

Remarkably, the inflation trajectory is seeing a significant downtrend, reaching a peak year-on-year increase of 4.96% in June 2023—its lowest since 2005.

Background – Uruguayan Analysts Adjust 2024 Economic Growth Forecast to 3.3%

The first quarter shows a modest increase of 0.6% year-over-year. This follows a 0.9% rise from the final quarter of 2023, suggesting resilience in Uruguay’s economic fabric.

This period of growth draws strength from diverse sectors. Remarkably, the Electricity, Gas, and Water sector surged by 20%, lighting up possibilities for future sustainability.

The Trade, Accommodation, and Food Services sector also flourished, marking a 2.9% increase.

These expansions signal a rebound in consumer confidence and spending, vital for sustaining momentum.

Conversely, not all industries shared in the prosperity. The Manufacturing Industry faced a downturn, retracting by 10.3%, while the Construction sector dipped by 3.8%.

In the verdant fields and along the coastlines, the Agriculture, Fishing, and Mining sector grew by 4.3%, underscoring Uruguay’s rich natural resources.

Meanwhile, the Transport and Storage sector along with Information and Communications grew by 2.5%, highlighting advancements in infrastructure and technology.

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