Key Points
- Copom and the Fed are expected to hold, but the tone can move the first-cut timeline.
- Brazil’s record equities meet U.S. politics and Big Tech earnings in one session.
- Debt data, commodities, and geopolitics add cross-currents that can amplify volatility.
Super Wednesday pairs Copom and the Fed. In Brazil, consensus points to the Selic holding at 15.00%, with March cuts in focus. IPCA-15 rose 0.20% in January and 12-month inflation reached 4.50%, the top edge of the target band.
On January 27, the Ibovespa closed at 181,919.13, a record, and hit 183,360 intraday. Foreign inflows were cited, along with policy hopes.
In the United States, markets expect a hold at 3.50%–3.75%. CME’s FedWatch put the odds of no change near 97%. Jerome Powell speaks as Trump presses for deeper cuts.
The Fed is also facing scrutiny tied to headquarters renovation costs, and succession talk is rising. Trump is scheduled to appear at a Treasury-backed “Trump Accounts” summit.
The plan would seed eligible children with $1,000, then allow family and third-party contributions, with possible state participation. A Dell-family pledge tied to the initiative has been reported.
Brazil And Global Markets Await Catalysts
Brazil’s Treasury will publish three documents at 14:30: the December 2025 Monthly Debt Report, the 2025 Annual Debt Report, and the 2026 Annual Financing Plan.
Corporate catalysts are landing too. Vale said 2025 iron-ore output reached 336.1 million tonnes, its strongest since 2018, with higher copper and nickel output. Embraer reported a record $31.6 billion backlog at the end of 2025.
Global trading adds inputs. U.S. index futures were higher ahead of Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla results, with AI spending projected above $500 billion in 2026.
Europe was mixed after ASML beat on orders and guided higher, while LVMH shares fell after mixed results. Oil hovered near four-month highs at $62.46 WTI and $67.56 Brent. Dalian iron ore settled at 783 yuan ($113). Bitcoin traded near $88,906.
Geopolitics stayed active. Israel said it struck Hezbollah-related activity in southern Lebanon. Italy saw backlash after reports of ICE support around Winter Olympics security.
Argentina’s country-risk gauge slipped below 500 basis points. Europe’s parliament asked the EU’s top court to assess the EU–Mercosur deal.