S&P Merval Plunges 3.3% to 2,723,175 — Argentina’s Post-Election Rally Fully Erased
The Merval crashed 3.3% after the long Carnival weekend, closing at 2,723,175 points and erasing virtually all gains accumulated since Milei’s legislative victory on October 26. In dollar terms, the index fell 3.4% to USD 1,858, its lowest level since late October, as global tech selling and domestic political noise created a perfect storm for Argentine equities.
The peso continued its dramatic strengthening, with the official dollar holding at ARS 1,420 at Banco Nación — down ARS 60 since the start of 2026 — while the blue dollar fell to ARS 1,435. The BCRA bought USD 80 million on Wednesday, extending its streak to 31 consecutive sessions of net purchases and accumulating USD 2,169 million in 2026.
Country risk climbed to 515 basis points as sovereign bonds turned negative, with investors watching the Labor Modernization reform debate in Diputados for the next catalyst. Analyst Gustavo Ber noted investors are seeking political and economic signals to resume buying, with the labor reform vote representing both a legislative milestone and a confidence test.
| INDICATOR | VALUE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval Close | 2,723,175 | -3.30% |
| Merval Weekly | — | -8.69% |
| Merval YTD 2026 | — | -10.8% |
| ATH (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 | -17.4% from ATH |
| Merval in USD (CCL) | 1,858 | -3.4% |
| USD Official (BNA) | ARS 1,420 | 0.0% |
| USD Blue | ARS 1,435 | -0.35% |
| USD MEP | ARS 1,423 | -0.04% |
| USD CCL (GD30) | ARS 1,462 | -0.61% |
| Country Risk (EMBI+) | 515 bps | +4 pts |
| BCRA Policy Rate (LEFI) | 29% TNA | unchanged |
| CPI Jan 2026 | 2.9% m/m | 32.4% y/y |
| BCRA Reserves (Gross) | USD 45,129M | -USD 29M |
| BCRA Daily Purchases | USD 80M | 31st straight |
| S&P 500 | 6,881.31 | +0.56% |
After the long Carnival weekend, the Merval opened directly into the selloff that ADRs had already priced on Tuesday in New York. The index closed at 2,723,175 points, down 3.3%, with losses broad-based and concentrated in small caps and utilities. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentine markets and Latin American financial news.
Sociedad Comercial del Plata led the carnage at -8.6%, followed by Metrogas (-5.7%) and Cresud (-5.3%). In the ADR market on Tuesday, the damage had been led by Edenor (-5.6%), Central Puerto (-4.8%), and Grupo Financiero Galicia (-4.8%).
The disconnect between Wall Street and Buenos Aires was stark: while the S&P 500 rose 0.56% on Wednesday, the Merval plunged. In USD terms, the Merval at 1,858 points returned to levels not seen since October 28, effectively erasing the entire post-election rally.
TradingView data shows Transener (+65.83% YTD) leads all Merval components in 2026, while Sociedad Comercial del Plata (-46.51%) is the worst performer. The financial sector, trading at roughly 1.7–1.8x book value, remains the consensus overweight for 2026, with analysts at Insider Finance highlighting Banco Macro, Galicia, and BYMA as top picks.
The peso’s strength is the defining theme of early 2026. The official dollar held at ARS 1,420, down ARS 60 from where it closed 2025, while the blue dollar fell ARS 5 to ARS 1,435 — a level not seen since November 18. The blue has lost ARS 95 since the start of the year.
Financial dollars continued their descent: the MEP closed at ARS 1,423 (-0.04%) and the CCL at ARS 1,462 (-0.61%), putting the official-blue spread at a negligible 0.35% and the CCL spread at just 4.4%. Since January 2026, the BCRA has shifted to adjusting the exchange band ceilings monthly based on the latest inflation print rather than the previous 1% crawl.
The BCRA continues buying aggressively: USD 80 million on Wednesday alone, bringing the 2026 total to USD 2,169 million across 31 consecutive sessions, averaging USD 68 million per day. Gross reserves slipped USD 29 million to USD 45,129 million. Analyst Fernando Marull of FMyA warned that March typically brings less peso demand and more dollar demand, which could create some tension.
The BCRA policy rate remains at 29% TNA (2.42% effective monthly) since the January 31 cut from 32%. January inflation came in at 2.9% — above the REM consensus of 2.4% — with a 32.4% annual rate. The REM projects inflation will not break below 2% monthly until April, with the full-year 2026 estimate at 22.4%.
The Merval’s daily chart reveals a decisive breakdown below the Ichimoku cloud, with the close at 2,723,175 slicing through both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen support. Price is now trading below the cloud for the first time since November, a bearish regime change signal. The orange Kijun-sen around 2,901,916 now acts as overhead resistance.
RSI sits at 47.41 on the main oscillator, still in neutral territory but trending lower. The secondary RSI at 30.88 is approaching oversold levels, suggesting momentum exhaustion may be nearing. MACD remains firmly bearish with the histogram extended below the signal line.
The 200-day SMA at 2,423,930 (blue line) provides the critical long-term floor roughly 11% below current levels. The post-election rally that began in late October has been completely retraced, bringing the index back to where it stood before Milei’s coalition secured 41% of the legislative vote.
| LEVEL | VALUE | NOTE |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 3,296,502 | ATH Jan 28 |
| R2 | 3,034,190 | Cloud top / Senkou A |
| R1 | 2,930,208 | Kijun-sen / cloud base |
| Close | 2,723,175 | Feb 18 close |
| S1 | 2,717,263 | Session low |
| S2 | 2,423,930 | 200-day SMA |
Wall Street’s modest gains offered no lifeline to Buenos Aires. The S&P 500 rose 0.56% to 6,881 as Nvidia rallied on the Meta GPU deal, but the Fed minutes revealed a divided committee with a “less dovish bias” that pressured emerging markets. The DXY surged 0.50%, its biggest daily gain since January 30.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
+1.92%
176,010.90
-0.36%
66,409.65
-0.18%
10,947.38
-0.70%
3,291,246
+1.92%
2,292.03
-0.29%
57,174.37
—
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,291,246 | +1.92% | +58.61% | 3,229,324 | — | — | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,475 | -0.05% | +17.08% | 1,476 | 1,476 | 1,475 | — |
| YPF | 78,550 | +1.00% | +94.13% | 77,775 | 79,375 | 76,650 | 229,031 |
| GGAL | 8,205 | +3.73% | +35.20% | 7,910 | 8,275 | 7,880 | 1,442,395 |
| PAMPA | 5,240 | +0.19% | +41.32% | 5,230 | 5,290 | 5,140 | 469,483 |
| TXAR | 668.00 | +0.91% | +1.98% | 662.00 | 672.50 | 657.50 | 761,794 |
| ALUAR | 959.50 | +1.11% | +33.89% | 949.00 | 972.00 | 940.50 | 329,553 |
| TGS | 9,750 | +0.41% | +48.48% | 9,710 | 9,840 | 9,600 | 84,670 |
| CEPU | 2,344 | +0.73% | +61.52% | 2,327 | 2,353 | 2,301 | 218,518 |
| MIRGOR | 16,975 | +1.34% | -20.73% | 16,750 | 17,000 | 16,350 | 1,680 |
| COME | 45.63 | -0.26% | -12.62% | 45.75 | 46.39 | 45.01 | 4,212,603 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,615 | +2.34% | +31.22% | 3,533 | 3,640 | 3,490 | 106,114 |
| BYMA | 304.25 | +1.08% | +56.23% | 301.00 | 304.75 | 300.00 | 4,060,934 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,315 | -0.40% | +85.85% | 4,333 | 4,388 | 4,293 | 51,290 |
| GLOBANT | 31.98 | +3.43% | -62.20% | 30.92 | 32.60 | 31.20 | 2,101,963 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,843 | -1.64% | -23.36% | 1,874 | 1,905 | 1,820 | 502,358 |
Sovereign bonds were mixed to negative: Bonares fell up to 0.80% (AL41D) and Globales dropped as much as 0.60% (GD41D). Country risk rose from 511 to 515 basis points, having touched 506 intraday before reversing. The indicator remains above the post-election low of 494 reached on January 27, when it hit levels not seen since June 2018.
On the commodities front, WTI crude surged 3.83% to USD 64.72 on Iran/Hormuz tensions and stalled Ukraine–Russia peace talks. This is a double-edged sword for Argentina: positive for Vaca Muerta producers but inflationary for the broader economy. Gold climbed 1.62% to USD 4,957, boosting BCRA reserve valuations given its 1.98 million troy ounce holding.
The labor reform vote in Diputados remains the near-term political catalyst. The project already passed the Senate, and a positive result in the lower house would signal legislative capacity and boost investor confidence. Investors are also watching the BCRA’s second technical review of the extended facilities agreement with the IMF, expected in February.
The February inflation print will be critical: the REM consensus is 2.1%, down from January’s 2.9% shock. A print at or below consensus would validate the disinflation thesis and support the case for further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the BCRA’s re-monetization plan targets growing the monetary base from 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by year-end.
March seasonality favors dollar demand over pesos, which could test the BCRA’s buying streak. Balanz analysts noted the Merval in dollars has underperformed the region, falling 4.5% YTD versus broader LatAm gains, suggesting Argentine equities are “more conditioned by domestic factors” than external ones.
The Merval finds itself in a paradox: macro fundamentals are arguably the strongest in a decade — 31 consecutive days of BCRA dollar purchases, country risk near 7-year lows, inflation decelerating toward 2% monthly — yet equities are falling.
The answer lies in the observation from Balanz that the reserve accumulation strategy, while excellent for bonds and sovereign credit, is depressing equity valuations by keeping the peso strong and eroding dollar-denominated returns. The Merval in dollars has underperformed every major LatAm index in 2026.
The 2,930,208 Kijun-sen is now the line in the sand for bulls. A failure to reclaim this level would confirm the chart breakdown and open the door to the 200-day SMA at 2,423,930 — a further 11% decline.
For now, the carry trade remains the dominant strategy: peso yields comfortably above inflation with a central bank actively compressing the dollar. But as Marull warns, March seasonality and diminishing agricultural liquidation could test the equilibrium.
For regional context, see the Brazil’s Ibovespa report for the same date: Brazil’s Ibovespa.
For regional context, see the Chile’s IPSA report for the same date: Chile’s IPSA.
Deep Dive
For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
In depth
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