Sheinbaum Touts Mexico Growth as US$55 Billion Stalls
MEXICO · POLITICS & ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What happened: President Claudia Sheinbaum gave her second annual state-of-the-nation address in Mexico City on September 1.
- —How big: She reported US$35 billion in foreign investment for the first half of 2026, a record high.
- —The catch: Separately, a labor union leader says US$55 billion in petrochemical investment sits frozen over trade doubts.
- —Where: The stalled projects center on Mexico’s Gulf Coast petrochemical hub around Tampico and Altamira in Tamaulipas.
- —What comes next: Mexico, the United States and Canada now hold annual reviews of their trade deal through 2036.
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s second annual address touted record investment, even as US$55 billion in petrochemical projects sits frozen over trade fears.
President Claudia Sheinbaum delivered her second Informe de Gobierno on September 1. The address is Mexico’s annual report on the state of the government.
She said the economy remains stable, pointing to US$35 billion in foreign investment in the first half of 2026. That figure marked a record for the period, she said.
A Report Card on Growth and Security
Sheinbaum highlighted a 51% drop in homicides since her term began. She said the daily murder average fell from about 87 to about 43.
She also pointed to nearly 43 million people receiving government welfare payments. Officials say Mexico spends more than 1 trillion pesos (about US$59 billion) a year on pensions and other social programs.
Mexico’s economy grew 1.4% in the second quarter of 2026. Sheinbaum said 60 million people now hold jobs, with 86,765 new positions added.
She also noted the peso trades near 17 to the dollar. She called it one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year.
She only noted that Mexico’s economy keeps growing despite new United States tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum. She did not dwell on trade troubles in the speech itself.
A Trade Deal Clouds the Picture
Away from the podium, trade uncertainty is a real worry for investors. The USMCA is a free-trade deal linking Mexico, the United States and Canada.
Mexico calls the pact T-MEC, using its Spanish name. The two names refer to the same agreement.
The three countries reviewed the deal in July 2026. The United States declined to renew it early, so annual reviews continue through 2036.
That has left companies unsure how long today’s trade rules will last. Reuters reported new foreign investment in Mexico fell 13% in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier.
Reuters also reported that the US$35 billion figure Sheinbaum cited includes reinvested company profits. Only 7.8% of it funded brand-new projects on the ground.
Investment in brand-new factories fell nearly 50% last year, to US$24 billion. One example is World Emblem, an American apparel maker that relocated production to the Dominican Republic.
Pedro Casas leads the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico. He said constant renegotiation before next July creates what he called pure uncertainty for investors.
US$55 Billion Sits on the Sidelines
One clear example is Mexico’s petrochemical industry. Isaac Maya leads the country’s national union for chemical and petrochemical workers.
He says US$55 billion in planned projects remains stalled, per the newspaper Zócalo. He blames both trade uncertainty and shortages of key raw materials.
He says Mexico must import large amounts of naphtha, ethane and other feedstocks. Domestic natural gas and refining capacity cannot cover current demand.
Maya raised the alarm at a labor forum in Tampico. Representatives from 60 companies attended the event.
Maya said no layoffs have happened yet. He blamed the slowdown on global factors beyond Mexico’s control.
Altamira and Tampico have anchored Mexico’s petrochemical sector for decades. Maya says the region could lead the country again if new investment arrives.
The industry once made up 5% of Mexico’s economy in the 1970s. Today it accounts for roughly 2%, Maya says.
Sheinbaum’s speech did not mention the petrochemical slowdown directly. But the contrast is stark next to her own investment numbers.
What Comes Next
Sheinbaum said she will present a new economic plan for 2027 within days. She promised the plan would balance the budget and keep funding health and education.
A separate round of bilateral trade talks was set for Mexico City in July. It was expected to cover automotive rules, steel and aluminum tariffs.
Business groups are asking both governments for faster clarity. They say clearer rules would unlock stalled investment more quickly.
Trade officials in Mexico, the United States and Canada will keep meeting every year. Any of the three could still agree to extend the deal early, locking in today’s rules for 16 more years.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Informe de Gobierno?
It is the president’s annual address on the state of Mexico’s government, given each September 1.
What does T-MEC mean?
T-MEC is Mexico’s name for the USMCA. That is the free-trade deal linking Mexico, the United States and Canada.
Why is US$55 billion in petrochemical investment stalled?
A union leader says trade uncertainty and shortages of natural gas and other inputs have frozen the projects.
What happens next with the USMCA trade deal?
Mexico, the United States and Canada now hold annual reviews through 2036. They can still agree earlier to extend the deal.
Sources: Reuters; El Universal; Expansión; Zócalo (Saltillo); White & Case LLP; Presidencia de la República (gob.mx); XE currency data.
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