ECUADOR · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What happened Ecuador’s total public debt reached 65.7 percent of gross domestic product by June 2026, new figures show.
- —How big The total debt load now stands at about US$88.8 billion, according to Finance Ministry figures.
- —What it means That debt has grown faster than the economy in every year since at least 2019, analysts say.
- —The catch The widely cited figure counts money Ecuador owes its own social security and central bank funds, not just bondholders.
- —What comes next A separate 2010 law caps a narrower official debt measure at 40 percent of gross domestic product by 2032.
Ecuador’s public debt is rising faster than its economy, according to new government figures.
Ecuador’s total public debt reached 65.7 percent of gross domestic product in June 2026. That is about US$88.8 billion, according to an analysis published Sunday by the outlet Expreso.
The debt has grown faster than the economy every year since at least 2019. Interest payments alone now equal 3.3 percent of gross domestic product each year, exceeding the pace of recent economic growth.
Why the Debt Keeps Outrunning the Economy
From 2019 to 2026, public debt grew an average of 5.1 percent a year. The economy grew only 3.1 percent a year over that same stretch, Expreso’s analysis found.
Ecuador’s economy is expected to grow only 2 to 2.3 percent in 2026. That would be a sharp slowdown from 3.7 percent growth in 2025.
Ecuador’s government has spent more money than it collects in taxes and oil sales for years. The budget gap reached about US$5.3 billion in 2025, up 71 percent from 2024.
Government spending rose 11 percent in 2025 alone, budget figures show. Oil income fell 15 percent that same year.
Oil sales still provide roughly one-third of all government revenue. Oil production fell to its lowest level in more than two decades in 2025.
Export earnings from oil dropped to about US$7.7 billion that year. That was a fifth lower than the year before.
A Legal Ceiling Measured a Different Way
A 2010 law caps Ecuador’s officially tracked public debt at 40 percent of gross domestic product by 2032. For now, that law allows a higher interim limit of 57 percent.
That narrower, officially tracked debt reached about US$65.5 billion in 2025. That equaled 49 percent of gross domestic product, within the legal limit.
The higher 65.7 percent figure adds debt owed to the state pension fund and the central bank. Those obligations do not count toward the legal ceiling under current rules.
Financial analyst Pablo Iturralde has called Ecuador’s true debt burden critical. He told the outlet Radio Pichincha the country faces serious economic difficulty this year.
What the International Monetary Fund and Rating Agencies Say
The International Monetary Fund is backing Ecuador with a four-year loan program worth about US$5 billion. The fund’s board completed its fifth funding review in April 2026.
By the end of 2025, Ecuador had drawn about US$2.7 billion from the program. The April 2026 review released roughly US$400 million more.
S&P Global Ratings raised Ecuador’s credit score in August 2026, citing stronger fiscal management. That still leaves Ecuador’s bonds rated below investment grade.
Investors also demand much less extra interest to hold Ecuadorian bonds than in 2023. That premium fell from about 20 percentage points to under 5 percentage points by early 2026.
More: Ecuador news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are Ecuador’s debt figures given in US dollars?
Ecuador has used the US dollar as its currency since 2000, so its figures are already in dollars.
Why do some reports give a different debt figure for Ecuador?
Ecuador tracks a narrower, legally capped measure and a broader total measure. The broader total measure reached 65.7 percent of gross domestic product in June 2026.
Is Ecuador at risk of defaulting on its debt?
Ecuador is not currently seen as at high risk of default. S&P Global Ratings raised Ecuador’s credit score in August 2026, citing stronger fiscal management.
Sources: Expreso, Primicias, Radio Pichincha, Ecuador’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, the International Monetary Fund, S&P Global Ratings, Bloomberg.
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