Peru’s 10 Most At-Risk Crops as El Niño Threatens Food Supply and Exports
Peru · Agriculture
Key Facts
—10 high-risk crops Peru’s Ministry of Agriculture and producer groups identify potatoes, rice, maize, quinoa, onions, avocados, mangoes, blueberries, olives and strawberries as critically exposed to El Niño damage.
—Food supply threatened The planted area for staple transitional crops like potatoes, rice and corn has already fallen 10.5%, raising the risk of basic food shortages across Peru.
—Export losses During the last El Niño event, blueberry exports dropped 41% and mango shipments fell 67%, threatening a sector vital for national employment and foreign currency.
—Price spikes ahead Analysts project vegetable prices could rise between 30% and 200%, depending on rainfall intensity, directly impacting household budgets in Lima and nationwide.
—Economic impact Credicorp estimates El Niño could subtract S/16,000 million (about US$4.3 billion) from the economy between 2026 and 2027, with agriculture and fishing among the hardest-hit sectors.
Peru’s next planting campaign faces severe disruption as El Niño threatens to devastate Peru crops most at risk from El Niño, including daily staples such as potatoes and rice as well as high-value exports like blueberries and mangoes.
Which Peruvian crops face the greatest danger?
Agroclimatologist Ulises Osorio warns that El Niño is severely altering the agricultural calendar and could trigger scarcity of potato, rice, corn and coffee in local markets. The Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri) has already recorded a 10.5% decrease in the area planted with transitional crops — potatoes, rice, yellow corn and quinoa — since August.
On the export front, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has flagged coffee, cotton, bananas, table grapes, avocados, mangoes and blueberries as highly vulnerable. In 2023 alone, El Niño-linked conditions slashed blueberry exports by 41% and mango shipments by 67%, according to industry data compiled by The Rio Times.
Staples and food security: potatoes, rice, maize and onions
Potatoes are among the crops most affected by El Niño, with higher temperatures boosting pests such as soil worms, leaf-miner flies and the potato moth. Osorio emphasizes that the sanitary conditions and quality of Andean products deteriorate sharply under these climate patterns.
Meanwhile, heavy rains have already damaged large rice-producing areas, and drought in southern regions like Arequipa threatens to cut rice harvests by up to 40%.
Onion plantings have registered losses, with harvests in Arequipa projected to fall 30%. The area planted with maize choclo is also shrinking, with production down 42.4% in the current period.
These declines directly impact family food baskets, given that transitional crops represent nearly half of Peru’s agricultural production.
Export crops under threat: blueberries, mangoes, avocados and olives
Peru’s star agro-exports are concentrated in the northern coastal regions of Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque and La Libertad, which host about 80% of the country’s mango, avocado and blueberry crops. Mario Salazar of the agro-industry committee reports that mango production has already declined by 10%, while blueberries are vulnerable to fungal infections after rains and subsequent heat.
Growers in Olmos reported 30–40% lower blueberry production in the 2023/24 season.
Olive production has suffered a staggering 70.8% decline under current El Niño conditions, according to Conveagro, Peru’s National Convention of Agro Rural Organizations. In Tacna, olive output is projected to fall 65% due to drought.
Avocado production is down 6.9%, with quality issues in color, flavor and weight also reported.
Why this matters for residents and investors
Rising food prices are a direct consequence of these production shortfalls. Analysts project that vegetable prices for potatoes, yellow chili, onions, cauliflower and cucumber could surge between 30% and 200%, depending on rainfall intensity and infrastructure resilience.
Food basket costs are expected to rise in Lima and nationwide, squeezing household budgets at a time when the broader economy is already under strain.
For investors, the stakes are high. Credicorp Asset Capital Management estimates El Niño could subtract S/16,000 million (about US$4.3 billion) from Peru’s economy between 2026 and 2027, more than 1% of GDP.
Agro-exports, a pillar of the country’s foreign trade, face sustained risk if El Niño persists into 2027, with table grapes and mangoes singled out by the BCRP as the most heavily hit export fruits.
The human toll: farmers and rural communities
In the Junín highlands, a breadbasket for potatoes and maize, a looming drought could affect 850,000 people, including 100,000 farmers and 116,000 hectares of crops. Small producers lacking technical support or financial assistance are most likely to see intensified scarcity and losses in crops such as potato, maize, coffee and avocado.
The New Humanitarian reports that climate shocks have already driven some farmers off their land.
Pest outbreaks linked to El Niño conditions increase production costs due to heightened pesticide use, and cause premature fruit drop, reducing marketable yields. Gabriel Amaro of a producers’ association says around 6,000 hectares of fruit crops including avocados, blueberries, citrus and pomegranates have already been devastated by El Niño-related heavy rains in northern Peru.
What comes next for Peruvian agriculture
Senamhi, Peru’s National Meteorology and Hydrology Service, anticipates climatic alterations due to El Niño through at least summer 2027, increasing risks of floods, landslides and pest pressure on key crops. A weak to moderate El Niño event predicted for 2025 could reduce Peru’s GDP growth by up to 0.5 percentage points, with agriculture identified as the most vulnerable sector.
Conveagro warns that national food production could fall by up to 50% if anomalous conditions persist. The first anchoveta fishing season achieved only 25% of the allotted quota, reflecting El Niño’s impact on fisheries and the broader food chain, with knock-on effects on livestock feed, meat, poultry and dairy costs.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Which Peruvian crops are most affected by El Niño?
The ten crops consistently identified as most at risk are potatoes, rice, maize, quinoa, onions, avocados, mangoes, blueberries, olives and strawberries. Export crops such as table grapes, coffee and asparagus are also under significant threat from heavy rains, pests and drought.
How much have blueberry and mango exports fallen due to El Niño?
During the 2023 El Niño period, Peruvian blueberry exports dropped by 41% and mango shipments fell by 67%. Industry reports indicate mango production has already declined by a further 10% in the current cycle, while blueberry growers in Olmos saw 30–40% production losses.
Will food prices rise in Peru because of El Niño?
Yes. Analysts project that vegetable prices could rise between 30% and 200%, depending on rainfall intensity and infrastructure damage.
Staple crops like potatoes, onions and rice face supply constraints that will push food basket costs higher in Lima and nationwide.
Sources: El Niño phenomenon alters crops and fishing in Peru: what foods could be scarce (Infobae), Coastal El Niño threatens Peru’s booming agro-exports with heavy rains (Reuters), Losses from Coastal El Niño estimated at over USD 3 billion; food production could fall by half (Infobae), El Niño stalks Peru’s breadbasket: 7.3 million hectares of farmland in the crosshairs (The Rio Times), El Niño threatens Peru’s agro-export stars (Gestión), El Niño could subtract S/16,000 million (about US$4.3 billion) from Peru between 2026 and 2027 (Infobae)
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