El Niño Stalks Peru’s Breadbasket: 7.3 Million Hectares of Farmland in the Crosshairs

Across the highlands of Junín, Cusco and Huancavelica, February rains are already loosening slopes that have swallowed roads and homes in previous years. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Peru affairs and Latin American financial news.

Peru’s disaster prevention agency Cenepred has now mapped the full threat: 5.3 million hectares of farmland face high or very high risk from mudslides, while another two million hectares confront the same danger from flooding — together covering nearly two thirds of the country’s agricultural surface.

The ten most exposed regions — Junín, Puno, Huánuco, Áncash, Huancavelica, Ayacucho, San Martín, Cajamarca, Amazonas and Cusco — form the spine of Peru’s highland farming economy.

In the north, Piura, La Libertad, Lambayeque and Loreto face the worst flood projections, with Senamhi forecasting above-normal rainfall through April and the multi-agency El Niño commission confirming weak warm conditions arriving in March, a month earlier than initially expected.

Agroclimatologist Ulises Osorio warns that two additional factors could amplify the damage: a possible recurrence of Cyclone Yaku, which devastated the northern coast in 2023, and the ascending San Andrés winds, whose temperature swings disrupt flowering and fruiting in export crops like blueberries, avocados and mangoes.

For the world’s largest blueberry exporter — Peru shipped $2.27 billion worth in 2024 alone, part of $12.3 billion in total agricultural exports — the timing is alarming.

El Niño tests Peru’s disaster readiness

The agriculture ministry says its Catastrophic Agricultural Insurance covers 7.5 million hectares with 737 million soles ($225 million) allocated through August 2026.

Critics on the free-market right, led by AGAP president Gabriel Amaro, argue the fund is woefully inadequate given that previous El Niño events destroyed 80,000 hectares in the north alone.

Speaking from Berlin‘s Fruit Logistica fair, Amaro demanded to know what prevention infrastructure the state had actually built in identified risk zones.

Left-leaning analysts counter that the deeper problem is structural: decades of unregulated urban expansion into flood plains, 2,474 paralyzed public works nationwide, and chronic underinvestment in disaster prevention — less than 12 soles per inhabitant annually.

Economists estimate even a weak El Niño could shave half a percentage point off GDP, while the 2017 and 2023 events each cost 1.5 points.

With 15.5 million Peruvians now living in classified risk zones and international buyers dependent on Peruvian berries and avocados for year-round supply, the coming months will reveal whether Lima’s preparedness has finally matched the fury its geography has always promised.

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