Paraguay Warned Its Power Could Run Short by 2030 as It Chases Doubled Exports to the US
PARAGUAY · ECONOMY
Key Facts
—The warning: Industry leaders say Paraguay could face power shortages, even rolling blackouts, as soon as 2030.
—The paradox: Paraguay uses only about 16 percent of the electricity it generates and exports the rest.
—The ambition: The private sector now wants to double Paraguayan exports to the United States.
—The catch: Paraguay sells most of its power abroad cheaply, so the crunch is about what it keeps.
—The baseline: Exports to the US reached US$50.7 million in June 2026, up 13.1 percent on a year earlier.
—What comes next: A mining and energy ministry plan eyeing US$11 billion is meant to close the investment gap.
Industry leaders warn that Paraguay’s available energy could run short by 2030 without fresh investment, just as the country’s private sector sets out to double exports to the United States.
A power exporter that could run short of power
The warning sounds impossible at first. Paraguay is one of the world’s biggest electricity exporters, thanks to giant dams it shares with its neighbours.
Itaipú, co-owned with Brazil, is among the largest hydroelectric plants ever built. Yacyretá, shared with Argentina, and the smaller Acaray plant add more capacity.
Yet Paraguay consumes only about 16 percent of the power it produces. The rest flows to Brazil and Argentina at prices well below market rates, set by old treaties.
A report by the UIP, the Unión Industrial Paraguaya, the country’s main industrial lobby, put the consequence in plain terms. Without new investment, Paraguay faces energy shortages, and even rolling blackouts, as soon as 2030.
Some economists think the pinch comes sooner. Julio Fernández, a leading Paraguayan economist, has warned that the real danger begins around 2028.
Demand is growing faster than the grid
The numbers behind the warning are stark. Electricity consumption rose 21 percent in the first four months of 2026 alone, according to BNamericas.
New demand comes from energy-hungry industries, including cryptocurrency mining and data centres drawn by cheap power. Hotter summers and fiercer storms are straining the grid at the same time.
The state utility ANDE, the Administración Nacional de Electricidad, runs transmission lines that badly need upgrades. Years of underinvestment favoured an export model over domestic capacity.
There is another wrinkle foreigners often miss. Despite the claim that Paraguay runs on 100 percent renewables, about a third of total domestic energy comes from biomass, mostly charcoal and wood.
Roughly another third comes from imported oil and gas. The dams cover the electricity bill, not the whole energy economy.
Doubling exports to the United States
Against that backdrop, the private sector has raised its ambitions. Business leaders now want to double Paraguayan exports to the United States, the business daily 5Días reported on 28 August.
The goal builds on real momentum. Paraguay shipped US$50.7 million of goods to the US in June 2026, up 13.1 percent on June 2025, according to trade data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
The broader trade picture is strong. Foreign sales reached US$10.16 billion in the first half of 2026, up 23.6 percent, leaving a surplus of US$746.6 million, central bank figures show.
The US is already the third-largest buyer of Paraguayan beef. It took 12.1 million kilograms worth US$65.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, behind Chile and Israel.
Doubling US-bound sales means more processing, more cold storage and more factories. All of that runs on electricity, which is where the two stories collide.
The investment wall in the way
Fixing the power side requires money on a scale Paraguay has not yet committed. The mining and energy ministry has drawn up a plan eyeing US$11 billion of investment.
The shopping list is long. Transmission lines, substations and new generation all compete for the same budget as roads, schools and hospitals.
Treaty economics complicate everything. As long as Itaipú power is sold abroad at treaty prices, keeping more of it at home carries a real fiscal cost.
Industry argues the trade-off is worth it. A megawatt used in a Paraguayan factory creates jobs at home, while a megawatt exported cheaply creates them in Brazil.
What to watch from here
First, watch whether the UIP’s 2030 warning moves the government’s timetable. Official projections have consistently lagged actual demand growth.
Second, watch ANDE’s investment programme. Grid upgrades take years, so a decision delayed is effectively a decision made.
Third, watch the US trade numbers month by month. A doubling goal needs sustained double-digit growth, not one strong quarter.
For foreign investors, the equation is simple. Paraguay offers cheap renewable power and low taxes today, and both advantages expire if the grid falls behind.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why could Paraguay face power shortages by 2030?
Demand is growing far faster than the grid, with consumption up 21 percent in early 2026. The UIP industrial lobby warns of shortages and even rolling blackouts without new investment.
Doesn’t the Itaipú dam give Paraguay unlimited energy?
No. Paraguay uses only about 16 percent of the electricity it generates and exports the rest under treaties. About a third of its total energy still comes from biomass and imported oil and gas.
What is Paraguay’s export goal for the United States?
The private sector wants to double Paraguayan exports to the US, the daily 5Días reported. Shipments reached US$50.7 million in June 2026, up 13.1 percent on a year earlier.
How is Paraguay’s wider trade performing?
Total exports hit US$10.16 billion in the first half of 2026, up 23.6 percent, with a surplus of US$746.6 million. The US is the third-largest market for Paraguayan beef.
What would it take to avoid the energy crunch?
Grid and generation investment on a large scale. The mining and energy ministry has drafted a plan eyeing US$11 billion, but transmission upgrades take years to build.
Connected Coverage
We detailed the investment plan in Paraguay’s Mining and Energy Ministry Plan Eyeing US$11 Billion, the export surge in Paraguay’s push into 43 new markets and the earlier strategy in Paraguay’s big bet on power and proximity.
Sources: 5Días (Asunción), The Paraguay Post, BNamericas, Central Bank of Paraguay via Asuncion Times, Observatory of Economic Complexity, SENACSA export data.
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