Oil: The Latin America Daily Wrap — July 20, 2026
Key Facts
- WTI crude jumps to 123.96 dollars closing up 3.91% day-on-day via USO, extending a multi-week rally that tightens margins for importers but fattens cash flow for producers.
- Brazil’s pre-salt now delivers more than four-fifths of national output with April 2026 production at 5.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and around 4.34 million barrels per day of crude.
- Petrobras leans on record pre-salt fields as the Búzios offshore field alone averages 1.1 million barrels per day, following Tupi past the one-million-barrel mark.
- Guyana has emerged as South America’s second-largest oil producer pumping about 926,550 barrels per day by late February 2026, with capacity set to cross one million barrels per day once the Uaru project starts up later in the year.
- Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale turns the country into a net energy exporter with production around 600,000 barrels per day in 2025 and YPF targeting 250,000 barrels per day of its own crude in 2026.
- Mexico’s Pemex still struggles despite higher prices posting a first-quarter 2026 loss of 45.99 billion pesos (about 2.6 billion dollars) even as government support for the debt-laden firm rises.
Today’s Focus
Oil prices have surged again, with WTI tracked by USO closing at 123.96 dollars, up 3.91%, putting fresh wind behind Latin American producers even as it raises energy costs for consumers.
Brazil sits at the centre of this upswing: pre-salt fields now deliver more than 80% of national hydrocarbons, pushing April production to a record 5.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and lifting Petrobras’ earnings power.
Guyana’s rapid climb to more than 900,000 barrels per day and Venezuela’s recovery above one million barrels per day are reshaping export flows, while Argentina’s Vaca Muerta and listed YPF add a new shale pillar to the region.
Mexico is the outlier: despite higher prices and a 14.1 billion-dollar budget boost for Pemex, production remains sluggish and losses large, highlighting that not every national oil company can easily turn a price rally into a fiscal cure.
What matters today. The key is whether today’s high prices and record pre-salt and shale volumes can be translated into lasting investment and fiscal repair, rather than another boom that leaves state producers and their governments over-exposed when the cycle turns.
01 The session in one read
Oil ended the latest session sharply higher, with WTI crude as tracked by the USO fund closing at 123.96 dollars, up 3.91%, extending a rally that has run through much of the northern summer.
For foreign investors looking at Latin America, this price deck reinforces a simple pattern: countries with scalable, low-cost geology and credible operators, such as Brazil, Guyana and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, are increasingly geared winners, while financially stretched state giants like Pemex and PDVSA see relief but not yet transformation.
The current oil rally is clearly positive for Latin America’s upstream producers, with prices high enough to make deep-water pre-salt and unconventional shale highly profitable, yet the benefits are uneven because balance-sheet health and institutional strength differ sharply across the region. Petrobras and Guyana’s consortium model look best placed to convert today’s price deck into sustainable investment, while Pemex and Venezuela still carry heavy structural burdens in debt, governance and infrastructure, making the durability of their recovery the variable to watch.
02 The board
The live board shows WTI at 123.96 dollars via USO, up 3.91% day-on-day, alongside Petrobras at 17.97 dollars, Ecopetrol at 16.09 dollars and YPF at 49.68 dollars, with all three Latin American producers posting solid single-session gains of between 1.84% and 2.86%, signalling investor enthusiasm for the region’s oil story.
For an outsider, the key read across that board is that equity markets are crediting Brazil’s pre-salt, Colombia’s more modest but steady Ecopetrol, and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta-driven YPF with real leverage to this oil price move, while Mexican and Venezuelan names remain more constrained by politics and debt and are less directly visible to foreign retail investors.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | 123.96 $ | +3.91% |
| Petrobras | 17.97 $ | +2.86% |
| Ecopetrol | 16.09 $ | +1.84% |
| YPF | 49.68 $ | +2.54% |
Source: EODHD close, 2026-07-17. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Commodities — Live Market Board
-0.77%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,045 | +0.87% | +18.91% | 4,010 | 4,050 | 4,003 | 18,214 |
| SILVER | 58.01 | +2.12% | +48.35% | 56.80 | 58.15 | 56.38 | 5,018 |
| BRENT | 88.53 | -0.77% | +27.92% | 89.22 | 89.15 | 88.31 | 874 |
| WTI | 82.23 | -1.20% | +22.37% | 83.23 | 82.74 | 81.92 | 8,663 |
| COPPER | 6.40 | +1.57% | +14.04% | 6.30 | 6.40 | 6.33 | 3,392 |
| LITHIUM | 66.92 | -2.14% | +57.46% | 68.38 | 67.75 | 66.78 | 178,132 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +65.48% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,222 | -0.35% | +20.37% | 1,226 | 1,225 | 1,220 | 11,261 |
| CORN | 471.00 | +4.78% | +16.66% | 449.50 | 472.00 | 469.00 | 12,118 |
| WHEAT | 672.75 | -0.19% | +24.07% | 674.00 | 678.75 | 670.25 | 3,570 |
| COFFEE | 323.50 | -1.51% | +8.83% | 328.45 | 327.05 | 315.40 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.81 | -0.13% | -9.53% | 14.83 | 14.94 | 14.73 | — |
| COCOA | 5,507 | -0.47% | -32.48% | 5,533 | 5,681 | 5,349 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 146.90 | +6.30% | -55.12% | 138.20 | 148.15 | 136.65 | — |
| COTTON | 78.88 | +2.35% | +18.55% | 77.07 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,747 |
| BEEF | 223.30 | -0.50% | -0.85% | 224.43 | 223.53 | 219.83 | 24,937 |
| CATTLE | 346.78 | +0.24% | +5.85% | 345.95 | 347.00 | 338.30 | 11,861 |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | -0.40% | -8.74% | 5.11 | 5.09 | 5.09 | — |
03 What moved it
The immediate driver of the price move has been tight physical balances, with global crude and liquids production projected at 107.8 million barrels per day this year and demand expectations revised higher, keeping inventories lean and giving each supply disruption more impact.
On the supply side, record Brazilian output, accelerating Guyanese volumes and recovering Venezuelan production have helped offset OPEC discipline and pockets of underinvestment elsewhere, but they have not been enough to create a comfortable surplus, which is why every incremental barrel from pre-salt wells or Vaca Muerta pads still commands a strong margin.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil is the anchor: April 2026 hydrocarbon production hit 5.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which roughly 4.34 million barrels per day was crude, and pre-salt assets accounted for about 4.61 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, more than 81% of total output, underscoring how the Santos and Campos basin discoveries have reshaped both national finances and global balances.
Guyana, once a poor country of fewer than one million people, now produces over 900,000 barrels per day and is expected to cross the one-million-barrel-per-day mark in late 2026 when the Uaru project adds roughly 250,000 barrels per day, making it South America’s second-largest producer after Brazil and a key non-OPEC growth engine.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is tightly linked to this story: its Búzios pre-salt field has reached a record 1.1 million barrels per day of output, following Tupi as the second field in its portfolio above the one-million-barrel threshold, and the company has outlined a 32 billion-dollar pre-salt programme expected to add about 1.8 million barrels per day of capacity between 2026 and 2031.
YPF is the equity gateway to Argentina’s shale rush: Vaca Muerta production reached around 600,000 barrels per day in 2025 and the company’s chief executive Horacio Marín has set a target of 250,000 barrels per day of YPF crude in 2026, up from a recent record of 200,000 barrels per day, while Pemex remains a cautionary tale, losing 45.99 billion pesos in the first quarter of 2026 despite state support and still carrying roughly 80 billion dollars of debt.
06 The outlook
Looking ahead, the combination of favourable geology, improving technology and still-elevated prices suggests Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s deep-water blocks, Vaca Muerta shale and a slowly resuscitating Venezuela will remain central to the global supply picture, but for foreign readers the critical question is whether governments can use this window to strengthen institutions and balance sheets rather than simply lean harder on volatile commodity rents.
07 What to watch
- Brazil pre-salt expansion: Watch how Petrobras deploys its 32 billion-dollar pre-salt programme and whether investment really lifts national capacity by the targeted 1.8 million barrels per day over 2026–2031, which would lock in Brazil’s role as a swing exporter.
- Guyana project ramp-up: Monitor the timing and performance of the Uaru and Yellowtail projects, because crossing one million barrels per day of capacity will confirm Guyana as the second pillar of South American offshore supply after Brazil.
- Vaca Muerta export build-out: Follow midstream and export infrastructure from Argentina’s shale heartland, since turning 600,000 barrels per day of production into stable export flows is what will decide whether YPF and the country become true global players.
- Pemex and PDVSA debt and governance: Track fiscal support, restructuring and licence changes for Pemex and PDVSA, because heavy debt loads, refinery performance and sanctions policy will determine whether Mexico and Venezuela remain laggards or manage a credible turnaround.
Frequently Asked Questions
How high is Brazil’s oil production now?
Official data show Brazil produced about 5.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in April 2026, including roughly 4.34 million barrels per day of crude, with pre-salt fields contributing around 4.61 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, or just over 81% of output.
Why is Guyana suddenly important to oil markets?
Guyana has rapidly scaled offshore production to more than 900,000 barrels per day by late February 2026 and is expected to exceed one million barrels per day later this year when the Uaru project adds around 250,000 barrels per day, making it South America’s second-largest producer and a key non-OPEC source of growth.
What is Vaca Muerta and why does it matter?
Vaca Muerta is a shale formation in Argentina whose oil output has surged from about 45,000 barrels per day in 2014 to around 453,000 barrels per day in December 2024 and approximately 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, helping turn Argentina into a net energy exporter and underpinning YPF’s growth plans.
Is Pemex benefiting from higher oil prices?
Pemex gains from higher prices in terms of revenue, but it still posted a first-quarter 2026 loss of 45.99 billion pesos, carries about 80 billion dollars in debt and relies on a proposed 517.4 billion peso budget for 2026, showing that operational and financial challenges are muting the upside.
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