Oil Falls: USO, Petrobras, Pemex, YPF — the Rio Times
Key Facts
- WTI crude fell on Thursday the USO tracking fund closed at US$125.03, down 1.78% in the session.
- Petrobras shares rose the Brazilian producer gained 0.73% to US$17.89 even as crude slipped.
- YPF outperformed the Argentine shale-focused name added 1.12% to US$49.45.
- Ecopetrol led the board the Colombian national oil company closed up 1.47% at US$17.21.
- Diesel cracks are the real signal Russia’s exports fell to 80,000 barrels per day in early August, tightening fuel markets.
- Hormuz talks remain deadlocked traders weighed a US$120 risk scenario against hopes for a US-Iran deal freeing trapped barrels.
Today’s Focus
Crude fell on Thursday with the WTI-tracking USO closing at US$125.03, a 1.78% drop, as traders sorted through competing signals from refinery attacks and stalled Gulf diplomacy.
Latin American producers bucked the slide: Petrobras gained 0.73% to US$17.89, YPF rose 1.12% to US$49.45, and Ecopetrol advanced 1.47% to US$17.21.
The divergence reflects fuel-market tightness rather than crude weakness alone, with Russian diesel exports collapsing to 80,000 barrels per day as Ukrainian strikes hit refineries.
Markets are caught between a Hormuz stalemate that could push prices toward US$120 and any diplomatic breakthrough that would release millions of trapped barrels.
What matters today. Latin American crude producers held gains even as headline oil fell, because the squeeze in global fuels is rewarding companies that export refined products.
01 The session in one read
Oil prices eased on Thursday but the story underneath was messy. The WTI-tracking USO closed at US$125.03, down -1.78%, a drop that masked a sharply split market between crude and fuels.
Latin American names mostly ignored the slide. Petrobras added 0.73% to US$17.89, Ecopetrol climbed 1.47% to US$17.21, and YPF rose 1.12% to US$49.45 in a session that rewarded refiners and diversified state producers.
The session’s most durable message is that refining capacity, not raw crude supply, is driving relative value. Ukraine hit Gazprom’s 200,000-barrel-per-day Salavat refinery on Thursday, deepening a fuel crisis that has pushed Russia to restrict diesel exports to multi-year lows and turned refiners into the market’s real bottleneck. For Latin America, that means companies like Petrobras and YPF with domestic fuel businesses are seeing equity support even as the WTI benchmark softens. The variable to watch is whether the Hormuz deadlock breaks before refining losses become large enough to drag crude lower again.
02 The board
The board showed crude softness alongside resilience in Latin American producers. Petrobras closed at US$17.89, up +0.73%; Ecopetrol at US$17.21, up +1.47%; and YPF at US$49.45, up +1.12%, all advancing despite the USO’s 1.78% retreat.
Nowhere did the divergence feel more pointed. Investors were buying oil companies with fuel exposure while selling the crude benchmark itself, a pattern that matches a market worried about refinery capacity and product shortages more than raw supply.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$125.03 | -1.78% |
| Petrobras | US$17.89 | +0.73% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.21 | +1.47% |
| YPF | US$49.45 | +1.12% |
Source: RT close, 2026-08-13. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,100.95 | -0.23% | +21.85% | 167,491.07 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,000.07 | +0.16% | — | 10,982.72 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 65,335.52 | -0.64% | +12.17% | 65,755.97 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,000,582 | +0.04% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,432.10 | +0.07% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 58,814.75 | -1.21% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
Ukraine struck Gazprom’s Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan on Thursday, setting fire to a 200,000-barrel-per-day complex and deepening Russia’s fuel crisis. Russia’s diesel and gasoil exports have already crashed to 80,000 barrels per day in the first seven days of August, the lowest in many years.
OilPrice reported that Wood Mackenzie warned oil supply shocks could accelerate electric vehicle adoption, while Jefferies analysts argued diesel cracks reveal the real oil market. Brent crude futures eased to around US$90 a barrel early Thursday, down roughly 1.4%, as traders awaited any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The Hormuz stalemate remains the macro swing factor. OilPrice separately noted that for five and a half months traders have weighed a US$120 price scenario from disrupted Gulf oil flows against hopes a US-Iran deal would free millions of barrels trapped in the region.
04 The Latin American read
Petrobras’s rise despite lower crude reflects the Brazilian pre-salt producer’s strength as a fuel and energy player rather than a pure upstream name. Brazil’s deepwater barrels remain globally competitive, and the company’s refining system gives it exposure to the same product tightness driving diesel cracks higher.
Mexico’s Pemex faces the opposite stress. OilPrice reported Mexico built and upgraded refining capacity faster than it learned to operate it reliably, forcing the state company to send more crude into domestic plants and less onto export markets, a strategy under fresh scrutiny as fuel self-sufficiency remains out of reach.
Argentina’s YPF gained as Vaca Muerta shale continues to attract capital even amid headline crude softness. Guyana’s boom did not feature directly in Thursday’s tape, but it remains the region’s most consequential supply growth story outside Brazil.
Venezuela’s production remains constrained by sanctions and infrastructure decay, leaving it stuck between the same geopolitical currents affecting Iran and Russia, with no immediate relief priced in.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is the clearest regional beneficiary of fuel-product tightness. Its pre-salt crude is among the most carbon-competitive and inexpensive to lift, while its refineries let it capture crack-spread strength that pure upstream peers miss.
Pemex is the cautionary tale. The state company built refining capacity faster than it trained operators, creating a reliability gap that forces Mexico to import fuels even as it exports less crude, exactly the opposite of the national self-sufficiency goal.
YPF offers the most direct play on Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale. Each incremental pipeline or takeaway deal removes a bottleneck, and with product markets tight, domestic fuel sales in Argentina add a margin cushion that crude-only producers lack.
Ecopetrol’s 1.47% gain to US$17.21 stood out on a day when crude fell, a sign that markets are rewarding Latin American refiners and integrated state names rather than benchmark-length positions.
06 The outlook
The next move likely comes from two places: whether Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries, and whether Washington and Tehran break their Hormuz deadlock. OilPrice reported that stalled negotiations and tightening fuel supplies continue to support prices, with some top energy experts warning of sharper disruptions if diplomacy fails.
For Latin America, the fuel crunch is a rare tailwind for Petrobras, YPF and Ecopetrol even when crude slips. The test is whether refinery attacks in Russia and any Gulf escalation outweigh demand worries that could dampen the same product margins now lifting these names.
07 What to watch
- Ukraine refinery strikes: Each attack on Russian capacity tightens diesel markets and supports Latin American refiners.
- Hormuz negotiations: A US-Iran deal would release trapped barrels and pressure crude; failure risks the US$120 scenario.
- Pemex refinery reliability: Mexico’s self-sufficiency push exposes operational gaps that could shift its crude export balance.
- Diesel crack spreads: Refining margins, not crude prices, are the clearest signal for Petrobras, YPF and Ecopetrol.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall while Petrobras and YPF rose?
Fuel-product tightness from Russian refinery attacks pushed refining margins higher, helping integrated Latin American producers even as the raw crude benchmark slipped.
What is driving the fuel market tighter?
Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries, including Gazprom’s Salavat plant on Thursday, have cut Russia’s diesel exports to multi-year lows of 80,000 barrels per day.
What role does the Strait of Hormuz play?
Stalled US-Iran talks and disrupted Persian Gulf oil flows have raised the risk of US$120 crude, though a deal would free millions of barrels and push prices lower.
How does Mexico’s Pemex fit the picture?
Mexico has increased refining capacity faster than it has learned to operate it reliably, undermining the push for fuel self-sufficiency and reshaping its export strategy.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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