Michelle Bolsonaro Emerges as Strongest Conservative Challenger for 2026 Brazilian Election
A recent poll by the MDA Institute for the National Transport Confederation (CNT) reveals Michelle Bolsonaro as the most formidable conservative challenger to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian election.
The survey, released on Tuesday, November 12, 2024, tested various scenarios without former President Jair Bolsonaro. The poll shows Michelle Bolsonaro outperforming other right-wing figures.
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.9% · Lula 23.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 75% · Lula 25%
As of 22 October, 6:40 pm ET (23:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
This includes influencer Pablo Marçal and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. In a hypothetical matchup, Lula leads with 34.1% of voting intentions, while Michelle garners 20.5% and Marçal trails at 14.1%.
Former minister Ciro Gomes and current Planning Minister Simone Tebet round out the field with 9.3% and 9.2%, respectively. When Governor Tarcísio replaces Michelle in the scenario, Lula’s support rises slightly to 35.2%, with Marçal at 16.9% and Tarcísio at 15%.
The survey also explored voter preferences within ideological groups. Among right-leaning and center-right voters, Jair Bolsonaro remains the top choice at 47.9%.
However, if he cannot run, Tarcísio (22.6%), Michelle (21.9%), and Marçal (20.3%) emerge as potential alternatives.
Brazil’s Political Landscape
On the left, Lula dominates with 60.2% support from left and center-left voters. If Lula opts out, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad leads with 31.3%, followed by federal deputy Guilherme Boulos at 17.5% and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin at 15%.
Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility until 2030, due to a controversial meeting with ambassadors during his presidency, has reshaped the political landscape.
This ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) stems from Bolsonaro’s claims about Brazil‘s electronic voting system before the 2022 election. The MDA poll carries a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
As Brazil’s political scene evolves, these figures offer insight into potential outcomes for the 2026 election, highlighting the ongoing influence of the Bolsonaro name in Brazilian politics.
For the full picture, see our Brazil Elections 2026: Complete Guide.
For the full picture, see our Brazil Tax Reform: Complete Guide.
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This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief