Mexico’s Activity Gauge Slips, Raising the Bar for More Rate Cuts

Key Points

• November’s setback was driven by a steep fall in agriculture, while services also softened.
• Industry held up, led by construction, but manufacturing and wholesale trade stayed weak.
• The mixed picture strengthens the case for caution at Banxico’s February 5 decision.

Mexico’s economic momentum stumbled in November 2025, undercutting hopes of a clean rebound and sharpening the debate over how far interest rates can fall without reigniting inflation.

The Global Indicator of Economic Activity, or IGAE, slipped 0.2% from October on a seasonally adjusted basis, when it had jumped 1.0%.

The index stood at 105.6. Compared with November 2024, the same adjusted measure was still 1.1% higher, showing growth that exists but lacks force.

The month’s weakness came from primary activities, which dropped 7.0%, a reminder that agriculture can swing the headline.

Services, which dominate the economy, also eased. Tertiary activities fell 0.4% on the month. Industry provided a partial offset. Secondary activities rose 0.6% in November.

Within industry, construction rose 1.6% from October and was 3.0% higher than a year earlier. Manufacturing increased 0.5% on the month but was 0.8% lower than a year earlier. Mining was flat on the month and fell 1.0% year on year.

Services told a split story. Wholesale trade fell 2.2% on the month and was down 3.8% from a year earlier, a warning sign for inventories and business demand.

Retail trade rose 1.5% and was up 6.0% year on year, pointing to pockets of resilient consumption. Transport and storage declined 1.4% on the month and were 1.1% lower than a year earlier.

In unadjusted figures, IGAE fell 0.1% year on year in November. For January through November 2025, activity was up just 0.2% versus the same period in 2024.

For policymakers, the message is awkward. Banxico cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in December to 7.00%, with a 4–1 vote.

Since then, officials have signaled greater caution, citing inflation risks and uncertainty. A pause would align with credibility-first central banking, even as political currents often push for cheaper credit. The next decision comes on February 5.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Cooperation or Coercion: The New U.S.–Mexico Front Over Cart This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexico affairs and Latin American financial news.

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