Mexican Peso Rallies Sharply as Technicals Confirm Momentum Shift

Official TradingView charts for June 23, 2025, show the Mexican peso decisively strengthened against the US dollar, with USD/MXN dropping from 19.29 to 19.02.

This move marks a clear reversal of the mild dollar rebound seen in previous sessions, as the peso gained nearly 1.4% in less than 24 hours. The peso’s rally unfolded as global risk sentiment stabilized after last week’s geopolitical shocks.

The US dollar, already under pressure from persistent fiscal concerns and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, lost further ground. The US Dollar Index continued its downward trend, reflecting broad-based selling.

Banxico’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut to 8.5% did not deter buyers, as the rate differential with the US remains attractive and inflation in Mexico remains under control.

Technical analysis on the 4-hour USD/MXN chart reveals a swift rejection at the 200-period moving average, which acted as a ceiling for the recent rally.

The price then sliced through the 50-period moving average and settled just above the lower Bollinger Band, confirming strong downward momentum. The Ichimoku cloud, now above price, signals a bearish environment.

The MACD histogram turned sharply negative, and the signal line crossed below zero, confirming a momentum shift. The RSI dropped from 58 to 44, moving out of overbought territory and showing renewed selling pressure.

USD/MXN Shows Signs of Peso Strength Amid Technical Reversal

The daily chart reinforces this view. USD/MXN failed to break above the 50-day moving average, and the price remains well below the 200-day moving average.

The MACD on the daily timeframe shows a bearish crossover, while the RSI, now at 42.65, points to a market that has exited oversold conditions but has not yet found a floor.

The Ichimoku cloud and all major moving averages remain above the current price, confirming the peso’s dominance. No significant changes in trading volume or ETF flows appeared in the last 24 hours.

This suggests that the move was driven by spot market participants reacting to technical triggers and macroeconomic signals rather than large institutional repositioning.

The story behind these figures is straightforward: the peso’s recent weakness ended as the market rejected higher USD/MXN levels and momentum shifted in favor of the Mexican currency.

The technical breakdown below key averages, combined with a lack of new negative news for Mexico and continued skepticism about the US dollar, fueled the move.

The peso’s surge signals that market participants remain wary of the dollar’s prospects and see value in the Mexican currency, especially as Banxico maintains a cautious policy stance and inflation stays contained.

The next test lies at the 19.00 level; if the peso holds these gains, further strengthening is likely as long as US fundamentals remain shaky and technicals confirm the trend.