The Big Three
The dollar mayorista plunged to ARS 1,368 — its lowest since October 14, 2025 — as relentless selling pressure drove the third consecutive session of peso strength. The BCRA bought USD 57 million, extending its streak to every trading day since the new FX regime launched.
Bloomberg reported that Argentina’s sluggish economy is threatening Milei’s fiscal surplus, his signature achievement. Cracks in growth are emerging just as the government confirmed it will not tap international debt markets until at least 2028.
The Merval fell −1.3% to 2,769,368 after reversing early gains, dragged by a global selloff as oil surged 4%+ and Wall Street tumbled on the collapse of Iran peace momentum. ADRs fell led by Cresud (−4.4%) and Loma Negra (−4.1%).
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Merval Close | 2,769,368 | −1.28% |
| Merval ATH (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 | −16.00% |
| Country Risk (EMBI) | 593 bps | −2 bps |
| Dollar Mayorista | ARS 1,368 | −0.7% |
| Dollar Oficial | ARS 1,390 | −0.7% |
| Blue Dollar | ARS 1,425 | +0.4% |
| MEP Dollar | ARS 1,398.09 | −0.51% |
| CCL Dollar | <ARS 1,450 | lowest since Feb 23 |
| BCRA Reserves | USD 43,536M | −USD 296M |
| S&P 500 | 6,477.00 | −1.74% |
02 Equities
The Merval Argentina today reversed early gains to close at 2,769,368, down −1.3% as the global risk-off wave overwhelmed domestic momentum. Volume was thin at USD 316.4 million. In New York, ADRs fell sharply — Cresud (−4.4%), Loma Negra (−4.1%), Central Puerto (−3.9%), and Edenor (−3.7%) led the decline. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentina’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Bonds mirrored the equity weakness with Globales falling 0.3%–0.7%, led by GD35 and GD29. Country risk touched an intraday high of 599 before settling at 593 bps — still below the 595 close on Wednesday, reflecting underlying bond demand. El Cronista described the move as “ordered profit-taking” without signs of stress.
The Bloomberg report on Milei’s fiscal surplus being threatened by sluggish growth added a domestic overhang. With the government confirmed out of international markets until 2028 and net reserves still deeply negative, the fiscal narrative is increasingly central to investor confidence.
03 Currency
The dollar mayorista dropped ARS 9.50 (−0.7%) to ARS 1,368 — its lowest since October 14, 2025 and a remarkable 6% decline in Q1 2026. The peso has now strengthened against the dollar for three consecutive sessions. ABC Mercado de Cambios operator Nicolás Merino noted selling pressure dominated from the open, breaking successive levels without finding support.
The BCRA bought USD 57 million (18% of spot volume), extending its unbroken purchasing streak under the new FX regime to approximately USD 4 billion total. However, reserves fell USD 296 million to USD 43,536 million, driven by a 3.2% drop in gold prices. The blue dollar was the lone contrarian, rising ARS 5 to ARS 1,425, while the MEP and CCL both fell to multi-week lows.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
The index opened at 2,805,730 — essentially at Wednesday’s close — rallied briefly to 2,830,650, then sold off hard to a session low of 2,739,077 before recovering marginally to 2,769,369. The long upper shadow signals failed buying conviction and distribution at the highs.
The MACD histogram at 27,605 remains positive but is starting to fade. RSI at 51.05/45.04 is right at the 50 midline, leaving the trend ambiguous. A close below 2,716,955 would trigger a bearish signal; a reclaim of 2,827,001 would confirm resumption of the recovery.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Merval |
| Resistance 3 | 2,863,120 |
| Resistance 2 | 2,827,001 |
| Resistance 1 | 2,805,730 |
| Current Close | 2,769,369 |
| Support 1 | 2,721,279 |
| Support 2 | 2,700,776 |
| Support 3 | 2,535,515 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street was hammered — S&P 500 −1.74%, Nasdaq −2.38%, Dow −1.01%. Meta crashed 8%. Oil surged 4%+ as Iran rejected the ceasefire and Hormuz fears returned. Trump claimed Iran was “begging” for a deal despite Tehran’s public denials.
07 Looking Ahead
The dollar‘s relentless decline creates a paradox: peso strength is great for inflation (Q1 decline of 6%), but Bloomberg’s reporting on growth cracks suggests the fiscal surplus — Milei’s core political asset — may be harder to maintain. April’s soybean liquidation remains the key catalyst for reserves.
The equity-FX divergence (Merval down, peso up) suggests foreign flows are targeting fixed–income carry rather than equity risk. Country risk holding below 600 despite the global selloff is a quiet positive, but the 500 bps threshold needed for market access remains distant.
08 Verdict
Thursday delivered a session of contradictions: the dollar hit five-month lows while the Merval gave back Wednesday’s gains entirely. The Bloomberg fiscal warning adds a fundamental concern — if growth doesn’t accelerate, the spending-cuts model loses its anchor. RSI at exactly 51 leaves the technical picture on a knife edge.
Bias: Neutral. The peso’s strength and the BCRA’s unbroken buying streak are structurally constructive, but the Merval is hostage to global risk appetite and the emerging fiscal narrative. Until oil stabilizes or growth data improves, the index remains range-bound between 2,700,000 and 2,830,000.