Lula’s Party Tells His Vice President: Stay or Go — It’s Your Call

Eight months before Brazil votes, the ruling Workers’ Party is still trying to solve a puzzle that could determine whether President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins or loses the country’s biggest state. The question: what to do with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Brazil politics and Latin American financial news.

Speaking on Tuesday at a ceremony marking the PT’s 46th anniversary, party chairman Edinho Silva made a striking declaration of deference.

“Alckmin will be a candidate for whatever he wants,” he said, adding that if the vice president decides his best role is staying on Lula’s ticket, “we will respect that decision.”

The statement was carefully diplomatic, but the subtext is impossible to miss: the PT would prefer Alckmin to run for governor of São Paulo.

São Paulo is home to roughly a quarter of Brazil’s electorate, and the party has never won the governorship there. Without a competitive slate in the state, Lula risks losing crucial votes to the right in the very place that could decide a tight national race.

Current Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a right-wing favorite, enjoys approval ratings above 60 percent and is running for reelection — making the challenge even steeper.

Alckmin, a former four-term São Paulo governor who knows the state’s political terrain better than almost anyone, would be the natural solution. But allies say he has privately signaled he wants to stay as vice president.

That reluctance is forcing the PT toward its backup option: Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Edinho called Haddad “the most important minister in Lula’s government” and “São Paulo’s name” — but acknowledged that “nobody is a candidate without being convinced.”

The stakes extend beyond São Paulo. On the right, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has surged in polls since his father — the jailed former president — designated him as the opposition’s standard-bearer in December.

Recent surveys show Flávio closing the gap with Lula, climbing from 23 to 32 percent in scenarios without other right-wing contenders. Edinho acknowledged the consolidation was inevitable: “Any candidate representing that side of the polarization would consolidate quickly.”

To counter that threat, the PT is reaching across the aisle. Edinho confirmed talks with leaders of União Brasil and the Progressistas party — centrist blocs that hold ministries in Lula’s government but have historically flirted with the opposition during elections.

“They participate in the government, they have ministries. Contradictions are natural, but we need to talk,” he said. He also highlighted public security as a campaign pillar, noting that São Paulo’s police forces receive some of the lowest salaries in the country.

Meanwhile, the PT backed the installation of a congressional inquiry into the Banco Master scandal — a banking fraud case that has drawn bipartisan support for investigation, with 56 percent of lower house members and 68 percent of senators favoring a probe.

Edinho framed the move as part of building a unifying agenda, though the rival requests from left and right reflect a pre-election battle for political control of the narrative.

The coming weeks will test whether diplomacy or inertia prevails. Both Haddad and Alckmin must make decisions that will reshape Lula’s coalition — and the clock is running.

Brazilian electoral law requires senior officeholders to step down by early April to run for office. The chess match is accelerating, and the PT cannot afford a stalemate.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Brazil’s Big Three Banks Shut 938 Branches in One Year