Lula’s government is disapproved by 10% of those who elected him

A PoderData survey conducted from April 2 to 4 shows that 10% of the voters who voted for the current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), in the second round of 2022, disapprove of his administration at the helm of the Presidential Administration.

To arrive at these numbers, PoderData asked the interviewees how they voted in the last election and crossed the results with the question about government approval (“Do you approve or disapprove of President Lula’s government?”).

This segment, naturally, tends in its majority to approve of Lula’s administration – the 10% are the exception, indicating a profile of a “disgruntled voter” of Lula.

The PowerData also cross-referenced the respondents’ vote in 2022 with other questions asked in the same round of research.

About the president’s work – when the interviewee can evaluate Lula’s performance as good/very good, fair, or bad/worst – the result is similar: 11% bad/worst.

Another cross-section shows that 16% of those who voted for Lula see no improvement in the government about the previous administration: 8% think that Lula’s administration is “equal” to Bolsonaro’s, and 8% think it is worse.

Lula received 60,345,999 votes in the second round of 2022 against Bolsonaro’s 58,206,354.

This means that this contingent of dissatisfied voters is equivalent to something like 6 million voters, a number higher than the 2.14 million votes that decided the election in favor of the PT candidate.

PoderData also detected the opposite effect: a considerable part of those who voted for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the second round of 2022 now have a favorable evaluation of the Lula administration.

Today, among those who previously chose the military man, 14% approve of the current government, 12% think that Lula does a good or excellent job, and 26% think that Lula’s administration, so far, has been equal or better than Bolsonaro’s.

If we consider the approval data for the government, the survey indicates that just over 8 million Bolsonaro voters currently have an upbeat assessment of the Lula 3 administration.

In other words: on both sides, several voters show signs of changing their opinion – and, on both sides, this number exceeds the difference in votes between the candidates in the 2nd round.

The survey was carried out by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group, with its resources.

Data were collected from April 2 to 4th, 2023, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 2,500 interviews in 233 cities in the 27 units of the Federation.

The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.

To reach 2,500 interviews that proportionally fill out (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education, and geographical location, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls.

Often, it takes more than 100,000 calls until it finds the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.

THOSE WHO DIDN’T VOTE

Nearly half (49%) of the people who did not go to the polls to vote in the second round of 2022 approve of the Lula government today.

A similar rate (47%) thinks he has been better than Bolsonaro. In evaluating Lula’s work, this group is divided: into 39% excellent/good and 34% terrible/worst.

The 2nd round of the presidential elections in 2022 registered an abstention rate of 20.59%. In total, 32.2 million Brazilians eligible to vote did not do so.

With information from Poder360