Latin American Pulse for Thursday, June 25, 2026
Executive Summary
The Latin American Pulse for June 25, 2026: oil sinks to a pre-war low as a strong dollar knocks regional markets and Brazil holds firm.
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The Latin American Pulse · Thursday, June 25, 2026 · The 60-second read
The bottom line
- Oil did the reshuffling. US crude tumbled almost 4% to about $70 a barrel, a pre-war low that drained the last of the war premium, and the relief landed first in Brazil, where cheaper fuel feeds lower inflation and pulled in a record $4.1 billion of foreign money in a single day.
- But the dollar turned the screens red. A global dash for safety firmed the US currency and knocked equities across the region, with Argentina’s Merval crashing 4.25% and Colombia’s COLCAP falling a third straight day, while Brazil’s Ibovespa dipped just 0.44% — the regional outperformer once again.
- Mexico takes the stage today. Banxico decides interest rates after the IPC slid to 66,278 and inflation cooled to a multi-month low, a print our market desk reads as opening the door to a cut even as much of the Street still expects a hold at 6.50%.
The regional tape
Wednesday’s close · the markets snapshot
Levels and moves are Wednesday, June 24 closes from The Rio Times’ market data — Ibovespa, IPC, IPSA, Merval and COLCAP. Oil’s collapse to a pre-war low near $70 cushioned the region’s importers even as a global flight to safety firmed the dollar and turned the equity screens red, with Brazil the outperformer and Argentina the worst. Local indices are in points; the S&P 500 and oil in US dollars.
The big picture · oil giveth, the dollar taketh
The two forces pulled in opposite directions, and where a country sat decided which one it felt. The dollar’s surge knocked equities across the region — Argentina’s Merval crashed 4.25% and Colombia’s COLCAP fell for a third straight day — while cheaper oil did its slow, useful work underneath, easing inflation and rewarding the patient.
Nowhere was the split clearer than in Brazil. Its Ibovespa slipped just 0.44% to 170,507 as the commodity giants Petrobras and Vale fell with crude, yet the big banks rose on the promise of lower rates, and foreign money kept arriving at a record $4.1 billion in a single day.
The real eased to about 5.19 per dollar, its weakest since March, but that is the modest price of a world bracing for an American inflation reading due later today. For now Brazil is the rare market that turns a falling-oil, rising-dollar day into a story of resilience rather than retreat.
Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
-0.44%
170,507
-0.44%
66,278
-0.85%
10,675
-0.88%
3,110,490
-4.25%
2,270.97
-3.24%
55,438.99
-0.40%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 170,507 | -0.44% | +24.31% | 171,259 | — | — | — |
| IPSA | 10,675 | -0.88% | — | 10,770 | 10,888 | 10,675 | — |
| IPC MEX | 66,278 | -0.85% | +16.80% | 66,848 | — | — | — |
| MERVAL | 3,110,490 | -4.25% | +50.66% | 3,248,428 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,270.97 | -3.24% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 55,438.99 | -0.40% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.18 | -0.28% | -5.98% | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.18 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.88 | -0.48% | -8.01% | 5.91 | 5.90 | 5.88 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.61 | -0.02% | -7.31% | 17.61 | 17.63 | 17.58 | — |
| USD/CLP | 919.04 | +0.52% | -1.75% | 914.28 | 919.16 | 919.01 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,430 | +0.03% | -15.86% | 3,429 | 3,435 | 3,429 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.42 | -0.06% | -2.86% | 3.42 | 3.42 | 3.42 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,479 | -0.02% | +25.98% | 1,479 | 1,479 | 1,479 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.11 | +1.12% | +0.21% | 39.66 | 40.11 | 40.11 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,080 | +1.43% | -22.71% | 5,994 | 6,080 | 6,080 | — |
| USD/BOB | 6.85 | +1.29% | +1.50% | 6.76 | 6.85 | 6.85 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.74 | +1.38% | -0.52% | 57.94 | 58.74 | 58.32 | — |
| USD/CRC | 452.10 | +2.23% | -8.44% | 442.23 | 452.10 | 452.10 | — |
Deep dive · the refuge trade, refined
The day’s real lesson was that a single shock can split a continent. A flight to safety lifted the dollar and pressed hardest on the markets that had run furthest, while a parallel collapse in oil quietly rewarded the importers that buy their fuel abroad.
Argentina wore the scars of the first force. Its Merval crashed 4.25% to about 3.11 million as MSCI kept the country in its lowest tier with no path to an upgrade, the climax of a roughly 11% three-day unwind — though tellingly the peso barely moved, marking the blow as an equity repricing rather than capital flight.
Brazil rode the second. Cheap oil is close to ideal for a fuel importer, and the rotation out of expensive US technology and into cheaper, higher-yielding markets has played straight to its strengths — which is why its market can fall on the day and still feel like the safest seat in the room.
Country by country
Brazil was the region’s outperformer for a second time this week, its Ibovespa dipping only 0.44% to 170,507 as the big banks offset falling commodity giants Petrobras and Vale. Cheaper oil near $70 a barrel — close to ideal for a fuel importer — drew a record $4.1 billion of foreign inflows in a single day, even as the real eased to about 5.19 per dollar and the central bank’s minutes pointed to a likely pause in August after three Selic cuts to 14.25%.
Mexico’s IPC fell 0.85% to 66,278, a sixth straight decline, though the drag came from its own mining heavyweights — Peñoles and Grupo México each off more than 4% — rather than the flat peso near 17.60 per dollar. Banxico decides interest rates today after inflation cooled to a multi-month low, a print our market desk reads as opening the door to a cut even as much of the Street still expects a hold at 6.50%.
The Merval crashed 4.25% to about 3.11 million, the region’s worst session and the climax of a roughly 11% three-day slide, after MSCI kept Argentina in its lowest tier with no path opened to an upgrade. The blow was an equity repricing rather than a currency event — the wholesale dollar held flat near 1,479 — and Milei’s bloc still contained a censure push against cabinet chief Manuel Adorni while advancing its ‘Súper RIGI’ investment regime.
The COLCAP dropped 3.24% to 2,271, a third consecutive decline that has erased most of the rally into the June 21 runoff, and this time the peso softened too — to about 3,434 per dollar — the first sign caution is spreading beyond shares. The losing leftist Iván Cepeda is demanding a recount across tens of thousands of tally sheets, though the electoral council has certified Abelardo de la Espriella’s one-point win and the pro-business president-elect is set to take office on August 7.
Chile’s IPSA slipped 0.88% to 10,675 for a second day, and the tell was that it fell even as copper gained more than 1% and lithium firmed — a weaker peso, to about 919 per dollar, and a global pullback from risk did the damage. In Santiago the Constitutional Court struck down parts of President Kast’s flagship ‘Escuelas Protegidas’ school-security law, while the Senate advanced his ‘Reconstrucción Nacional’ reform in general.
Keiko Fujimori has been confirmed the runoff winner over the leftist Roberto Sánchez, ending one of the closest counts in Peru’s modern history, though a caretaker governs until the July 28 handover. A court handed the state a win in the long fight over China’s Chancay mega-port, a quiet test of how Lima will balance Beijing and Washington.
President Rodrigo Paz has declared a 90-day state of emergency and sent the army to clear road blockades, even as his team closes on an IMF financing programme of around $3.3 billion. La Paz also signed a $20 million anti-drug-trafficking deal with Washington, a sharp turn for a country that spent two decades aligned against it.
The risk dashboard
Our 1–5 read across ten countries · higher = more pressure
| Country | Score | Pol | Fin | Sec | Mkt | Ext | What’s driving it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolivia | 5.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | A 90-day state of emergency holds as the army keeps the roads open; an IMF programme of about $3.3 billion ($3.3bn) is the lifeline it is chasing, alongside a fresh $20 million anti-drug deal with Washington. |
| Cuba | 4.8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Blackouts and shortages grind on as Washington tightens the squeeze on the oil lifeline that keeps the island running. |
| Venezuela | 4.2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | Hollow but supervised: US-seated transition talks inch ahead as oil majors circle the Orinoco and Wall Street eyes a debt deal. |
| Peru | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | Fujimori is confirmed the winner, but a caretaker governs to the July 28 handover; a court just backed the state over China’s Chancay port. |
| Colombia | 4.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | A third straight COLCAP fall (−3.24% to 2,271) and a now-softening peso meet a recount demand over tens of thousands of tally sheets before the August 7 handover. |
| Mexico | 3.6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Banxico sets rates today after inflation cooled to a multi-month low; the IPC’s sixth straight dip was about its miners, not the steady peso near 17.60. |
| Ecuador | 3.6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | A dollarized, oil-dependent budget tightens further as crude slides to a pre-war low near $70, with the security crisis grinding on. |
| Brazil | 3.4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | The regional outperformer as cheaper oil and record inflows cushion a 0.44% dip, though a weaker real and a US tariff clash still nag. |
| Chile | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Calm by regional standards, but the IPSA fell even as copper rose, and the top court trimmed Kast’s flagship school-security law. |
| Argentina | 2.4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Austerity still delivers surpluses, but an MSCI snub triggered a 4.25% Merval rout — the cost of a market that had run on the upgrade bet. |
Scale: 1 calm · 2 favourable · 3 mixed · 4 elevated · 5 severe. Pillars: politics, finances, security, markets, outside ties.
Updated weekly; drivers refreshed daily.
The mood ahead
If oil stays near $70 and today’s US inflation reading comes in soft, Brazil’s shelter trade can extend and the inflows that cushioned it keep coming. A dovish Banxico and a clean Colombian certification would let the market-friendly story reassert itself across the region.
If US inflation runs hot and the flight to safety hardens, the dollar pushes higher and presses the markets that had run furthest — Argentina, Colombia and, at the margin, Mexico. Thin political margins in Bogotá and Lima leave little cushion if the tide keeps running out.
What to watch — Banxico’s decision today, the US inflation gauge, Colombia’s recount, and whether Brazil’s refuge trade can outlast a firmer dollar. These are our editorial views, not investment advice.
The briefing · 12 things worth knowing
- Oil cracked to a pre-war low. US crude fell 3.92% to $70.34 and Brent 4.33% to $73.74, draining the war premium and easing the inflation outlook across the region.
- Brazil was the outperformer. The Ibovespa dipped just 0.44% to 170,507 as the banks offset Petrobras and Vale, and a record $4.1 billion of foreign money arrived in a single day.
- Argentina’s Merval crashed 4.25%. An MSCI decision to keep the country in its lowest tier triggered the region’s worst session, though the peso held flat near 1,479.
- Colombia fell a third straight day. The COLCAP dropped 3.24% to 2,271 and the peso finally softened as the losing side demanded a recount before the August 7 handover.
- Banxico decides today. Mexico’s central bank meets after inflation cooled to a multi-month low; our desk sees room for a cut, while much of the Street expects a hold at 6.50%.
- Mexico’s miners did the damage. Peñoles and Grupo México each fell more than 4%, dragging the IPC to a sixth straight loss even on friendly inflation data.
- Chile fell while copper rose. The IPSA slipped 0.88% on a weaker peso and global risk-off, even as copper gained more than 1% and lithium firmed.
- Chile’s top court trimmed Kast’s school law. The Constitutional Court struck down parts of ‘Escuelas Protegidas’ as the Senate advanced his ‘Reconstrucción Nacional’ reform.
- Bolivia leaned toward Washington. La Paz signed a $20 million anti-drug-trafficking deal with the United States as a 90-day state of emergency and IMF talks continue.
- The Dominican Republic taxed its giants. A new 30% tax on its largest firms was signed into law, a notable revenue grab in the Caribbean.
- Brazil renewed EV import perks. The government extended zero-tariff quotas worth about $463 million for knocked-down electric vehicles, reviving a fight with local automakers.
- The World Cup rolled on. Mexico advanced from Group A and Switzerland won Group B as the group stage reached its climax across North America.
Pipeline · business & sector watch
Energy. Oil’s slide to a pre-war low near $70 rippled in both directions: it pressed Brazil’s Petrobras and tightened Ecuador’s oil-dependent budget, even as it eased inflation for the region’s importers. The cheaper barrel is, for now, doing more healing than harm across Latin America.
Industry & metals. Copper rose more than 1% and lithium firmed, a reminder that the metals bankrolling the Andes still command demand even on a risk-off day. In Argentina, the ‘Súper RIGI’ regime advanced, aiming to pull mega-investment into frontier mining and energy.
Markets plumbing. MSCI’s refusal to upgrade Argentina deferred close to $1 billion of expected inflows and crashed its banks, a reminder of how much an index label can move. Mexico’s Banxico decision today will reset the region’s rate backdrop heading into July.
The week ahead
Five dates that move the region
Frequently asked questions
A global rush into the safety of the US dollar knocked equities across the region, but Brazil is a fuel importer, and oil’s collapse to a pre-war low near $70 eases its inflation and supports the case for lower rates. Foreign money kept arriving — a net $4.1 billion in a single day — so the Ibovespa fell just 0.44% to 170,507 even as Argentina and Colombia dropped hard.
Index provider MSCI kept Argentina in its lowest standalone tier and opened no path toward an emerging-market upgrade, dashing a bet that had carried its bank stocks higher. The Merval fell to about 3.11 million in the climax of a roughly 11% three-day slide, though the wholesale dollar held flat near 1,479, marking the move as an equity repricing rather than money fleeing the country.
Mexico’s central bank meets after inflation cooled to its lowest in months, with the IPC easing to 66,278 and the peso flat near 17.60. Our market desk reads the softer print as opening the door to a rate cut, though many external analysts still expect a hold at 6.50%, so the language will matter as much as the decision.
The COLCAP has now given back most of the rally that ran into the June 21 runoff, and on June 24 the peso softened for the first time in the slide — a shift from profit-taking toward broader caution. The losing candidate is demanding a recount across tens of thousands of tally sheets, leaving weeks of institutional uncertainty before the August 7 handover.
It depends on whether a country buys or sells crude. For importers like Brazil and Chile it eases inflation and supports growth, while for oil-dependent budgets like Ecuador’s and Venezuela’s the slide to a pre-war low near $70 tightens an already painful squeeze.
Read & watch
- WatchBanxico’s rate decision today and the US inflation gauge the Federal Reserve watches most closely.
- ReadThe Rio Times on Brazil standing apart as oil sank and a record day of inflows landed.
- ReadArgentina’s MSCI snub and the 4.25% Merval rout that followed.
- WatchColombia’s recount fight and a softening peso before the August 7 handover.
- WatchOil near a pre-war $70 and what it means for importers and oil budgets alike.
Companion: today’s Latin America Power Map (PDF) — our full daily dossier on who holds power across the region.
Sources & method. The market snapshot uses Wednesday, June 24 closes from The Rio Times’ market data (Ibovespa 170,507, IPC 66,278, IPSA 10,675, Merval about 3.11 million and COLCAP 2,271); USD/BRL (about 5.19), USD/MXN (about 17.60), USD/CLP (about 919) and USD/COP (about 3,434), plus Argentina’s wholesale dollar (about 1,479), are from our June 25 country stock-market wraps; the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow and WTI/Brent crude are from our June 25 Global Economy Briefing, with the $4.1 billion daily inflow figure from our Brazil coverage. The reporting draws on The Rio Times’ June 24–25 coverage: Brazil’s outperforming session and record inflows, Argentina’s MSCI snub and Merval rout, Colombia’s third straight fall and softening peso, Chile’s weaker peso beating firmer copper, Mexico’s sixth down day and the Banxico decision, Peru’s confirmed result and Chancay ruling, Bolivia’s state of emergency and US anti-drug deal, the Dominican Republic’s corporate tax, and the region’s World Cup notes. The 1–5 risk scores are The Rio Times’ own weekly read. This is editorial analysis, not investment advice.