Latin America Power Index: Methodology
The Rio Times Latin America Power Index measures the power resources of 14 Latin American countries. This note documents the October 2026 edition (version 2026.10): the indicators, sources, transformations, weights and the alignment rule, so that every score can be reproduced from the published data.
What the index measures
Power here means the resources a state can bring to bear: the size and momentum of its economy, the capacity of its state to govern and keep order, its military means, the resources that carry it into the 2050s, its reach beyond its borders and its integration into the world economy. The index does not measure how well a government is doing in the polls.
Pillars, indicators and sources
Economic weight, weight 25%
Size and momentum of the economy: GDP at market prices and in purchasing-power terms, growth, exports, reserves.
- GDP, current prices, US$ bn (2025): IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; Cuba: UN ECLAC; log scale.
- GDP, purchasing power parity, international $ bn (2025): IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; log scale.
- Real GDP growth, % (2025): IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; Cuba: UN ECLAC; linear.
- Exports of goods and services, US$ bn (2025): World Bank, World Development Indicators (October 2026 release); log scale.
- International reserves incl. gold, US$ bn (latest month) (2026): National central banks; IMF International Financial Statistics; log scale.
State capacity & security, weight 20%
Ability of the state to govern, finance itself and keep order: government effectiveness, rule of law, corruption, democracy, credit rating, debt, inflation, homicide and organised crime.
- Government effectiveness, WGI estimate (-2.5 to +2.5) (2025): World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2026 update; linear.
- Rule of law, WGI estimate (-2.5 to +2.5) (2025): World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2026 update; linear.
- Corruption Perceptions Index (0 to 100) (2025): Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2025; linear.
- Liberal Democracy Index (0 to 1) (2025): V-Dem Institute, V-Dem dataset v16 (March 2026); linear.
- Sovereign credit rating, long-term foreign currency (2026): S&P Global Ratings, latest rating action; linear.
- General government gross debt, % of GDP (2025): IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; linear, lower is stronger.
- Consumer price inflation, annual average, % (2025): IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; log scale, lower is stronger.
- Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2019-2025): National statistics offices and police (2025); UNODC (latest year otherwise); log scale, lower is stronger.
- Criminality score (1 to 10, higher = more organised crime) (2025): Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, Global Organized Crime Index 2025; linear, lower is stronger.
Military means, weight 15%
Defence spending and armed forces personnel.
- Military expenditure, US$ m (2025): SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, April 2026; log scale.
- Armed forces personnel incl. paramilitary, thousands (2020): World Bank, World Development Indicators (from IISS, The Military Balance); log scale.
Future resources, weight 15%
The resources that carry power into the 2050s: population outlook, human development, oil and lithium reserves.
- Population in 2050, m (projection) (2050): UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant; log scale.
- Human Development Index (0 to 1) (2023): UNDP, Human Development Report 2025; linear.
- Proven crude oil reserves, bn barrels (2024): OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025; log scale.
- Lithium reserves, thousand tonnes (2025): US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026; log scale.
Diplomatic & cultural influence, weight 15%
Reach beyond borders: international tourism, soft power, contributions to UN peacekeeping.
- International tourist arrivals, m (2025): National tourism authorities and statistics offices, 2025; log scale.
- Global Soft Power Index score (0 to 100) (2026): Brand Finance, Global Soft Power Index 2026; linear.
- Uniformed personnel in UN peacekeeping (2026): UN Peacekeeping, contributions by country, February 2026; log scale.
Economic relationships, weight 10%
Integration into the world economy: trade openness and foreign direct investment.
- Trade, % of GDP (2025): World Bank, World Development Indicators (October 2026 release); linear.
- Foreign direct investment inflows, US$ bn (2025): UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2026 data (UNCTADstat); log scale.
Calculation
The Rio Times Latin America Power Index measures the power resources of 14 Latin American countries with 25 indicators in six pillars, all taken from primary sources in their latest published edition: the IMF, the World Bank, SIPRI, the UN, UNDP, UNCTAD, USGS, Transparency International, V-Dem, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, S&P Global, UN Tourism and national tourism statistics, and Brand Finance.
Each indicator is oriented so that a higher value means more power, size measures are taken in logarithms, and every indicator is scaled from 0 (weakest of the 14) to 100 (strongest). A pillar is the average of its indicators; the index is the weighted average of the pillars: Economic weight 25%, State capacity & security 20%, Military means 15%, Future resources 15%, Diplomatic & cultural influence 15%, Economic relationships 10%.
No editorial judgement and no artificial-intelligence model enters the score. The index changes only with a new data edition; the daily signals on this page are news, not score changes. Alignment groups follow a published membership rule (US security frameworks and BRICS); UN voting orders the countries within each group, and trade shares are shown as evidence.
Robustness
With equal weights for the six pillars, 2 of the 14 countries change rank. Missing values are left out of the pillar average; a pillar needs at least half of its indicators, and pillar scores that rest on incomplete data are marked ‡ in the index table.
Known limits and indicators left out
Three candidate indicators are not scored because they do not cover the region evenly. Copper reserves: the US Geological Survey itemises only Chile, Peru and Mexico. Diplomatic networks: the Lowy Institute Global Diplomacy Index covers 6 of the 14 countries. Military equipment counts: no open, licence-free source covers all 14 countries on one definition.
Two caveats apply to the military pillar. The World Bank series on armed forces personnel (latest year 2020) includes paramilitary forces, so countries with large gendarmeries or national guards appear stronger than an active-duty count would show. SIPRI publishes no defence spending for Venezuela and Cuba; their military score rests on personnel alone and is marked ‡. Costa Rica and Panama have no armies and score accordingly.
Alignment rule
The alignment groups on the Power Map follow a membership rule. Closer to Washington: part of a US security framework (US major non-NATO ally or the Shield of the Americas) and not in BRICS. Closer to Beijing: BRICS member, partner or applicant and in no US security framework. Hedging: both, or neither. Within each group countries are ordered by a political score: UN General Assembly voting coincidence with the United States (30%) and memberships (70%; ties with Taiwan count towards Washington). Trade shares with the United States and China are published as evidence and are not scored, because trade dependence is not political alignment.
Business lens
For companies, banks and investors the Power Map adds a business lens: for each country the sovereign rating, growth, inflation, public debt, foreign direct investment and the shares of the United States and China in its goods trade, with strengths and warning signs on fixed thresholds. Strengths: investment-grade rating, a top-three rank among the 14 in a pillar, real growth of 3.5% or more. Watch: rating below investment grade or default, contraction, inflation of 10% or more, public debt of 80% of GDP or more, a homicide rate of 20 per 100,000 or more, an organised-crime score of 7.5 out of 10 or more, incomplete data. All values from the dataset of this edition.
Data and citation
Download the core scores (rank, index and the six pillar scores per country): CSV · JSON. Licence: CC BY 4.0, attribution required. Country dossiers and the edition report are for members; the full dataset with every value, year and source comes with an institutional licence.
Cite as: The Rio Times (2026). Latin America Power Index, October 2026 edition (version 2026.10). https://www.riotimesonline.com/latin-america-power-map/
Editions and responsibility
The index is compiled by the Rio Times Power Desk; editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. A new edition is published when the main source datasets are updated (at least each quarter); every edition keeps its version number and its data file. Corrections are listed here with date.