Key Facts
- Softer US inflation drove Wednesday: core PCE prices rose 3.0% on the year in August, below the 3.3% forecast. Brazil’s Ibovespa jumped 1.37% and Argentina’s Merval 1.32%.
- Mexico was the region’s weak spot: the S&P/BMV IPC fell 1.38% to 64,214, while Chile’s IPSA lost 0.78% and Colombia’s COLCAP 0.38%.
- Colombia’s central bank surprised with a quarter-point rate rise to 12.25%, but the peso firmed 0.68% to 3,307.50 per US dollar.
- US stock futures were higher early on Thursday, with Nasdaq 100 futures up about 1.2% at 03:40 BRT; Brent crude for December traded near US$98 a barrel.
- Today brings factory surveys in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, Chile’s August economic activity and the US ISM index; US payrolls follow on Friday and Brazil votes on Sunday.
Today’s Focus
Latin America opens Thursday after a split session. Softer US inflation data lifted Brazil’s Ibovespa 1.37% to 186,340 and Argentina’s Merval 1.32%, while Mexico’s IPC fell 1.38% and Chile’s IPSA 0.78%. Colombia’s COLCAP slipped 0.38% after a surprise rate rise.
In Brazil the buying went to the big banks: Itaú Unibanco and Banco do Brasil each gained 4.7% and Bradesco 4.1%. Retailers also jumped, with Magazine Luiza up 12.5%.
The currencies were calm. The real firmed 0.76% to 5.174 per US dollar and the Colombian peso 0.68%, while the Mexican peso eased 0.12% to 18.0687 per US dollar. The dollar index was little changed, but the US 10-year yield still rose to 5.291%.
The read-through for Thursday: US stock futures point higher, but the region heads into a heavy calendar. US payrolls land on Friday and Brazil holds the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, 4 October.
What matters today. Whether Wednesday’s relief over US inflation holds through today’s factory surveys and the US ISM index, or whether higher US yields keep foreign flows cautious.
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 186,340 | +1.37% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,652 | -0.25% |
| USD/BRL | 5.174 | -0.76% |
| USD/MXN | 18.0687 | +0.12% |
| USD/CLP | 972.53 | -0.05% |
| USD/COP | 3,307.50 | -0.68% |
| USD/ARS | 1,525 | +0.01% |
Source: RT live market data, close of Wednesday 30 September 2026; USD/COP local close from Set-FX.
01 The overnight tape in one read
US stock futures were higher early on Thursday. At 03:40 BRT, Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 1.2%, S&P 500 futures about 0.5% and Dow futures about 0.1% from Wednesday’s settlement. On Wednesday the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the VIX volatility index rose 1.87% to 16.34.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.2 basis points to 5.291% on Wednesday despite the softer inflation data, after second-quarter US growth was revised up to 2.2%. That keeps pressure on valuations for Latin American equities and local-currency bonds. Brent crude for December delivery was near US$98 a barrel at 03:40 BRT, little changed from Wednesday’s US$98.03 settlement, and mainland China is closed for the Golden Week holiday until 7 October.
The evidence points to a selective opening: Brazil’s real and the Merval were firm on Wednesday, while Mexico, Chile and Colombia fell. Higher US yields may cap upside for local-currency debt, while firm oil prices support Petrobras and Colombia’s Ecopetrol. The variable to watch is Friday’s US payrolls report at 09:30 BRT: a strong reading could push yields and the dollar higher, tightening conditions for Latin America’s carry trade.
02 The board before the open
| Instrument | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 186,340 | +1.37% | Brazil rose; banks led |
| S&P/BMV IPC | 64,214 | −1.38% | Mexico fell most; peso slightly weaker |
| IPSA | 10,969 | −0.78% | Chile fell after weak industrial data |
| Merval | 2,819,323 | +1.32% | Argentina rebounded after eight down days |
| COLCAP | 2,549 | −0.38% | Colombia eased after surprise rate rise |
| USD/BRL | 5.174 | −0.76% | Real firmed; carry demand present |
| USD/MXN | 18.0687 | +0.12% | Peso flat to slightly weaker |
| DXY | 101.451 | +0.08% | Dollar little changed |
| Gold | US$4,156/oz | −0.70% | Gold slipped as yields rose |
| US 10Y | 5.291% | +4.2 bp | Higher US yields; tighter conditions |
The board shows a clear divergence: Brazil and Argentina gained in the last session while Mexico, Chile and Colombia fell. The real firmed enough to suggest foreign investors still treat Brazil as a regional carry-trade favourite; B3 data show a net foreign inflow of R$9.57 billion (US$1.85 billion) into Brazilian stocks in September up to the 28th.
The rise in the US 10-year yield — a key discount rate for global equities — is the main external drag. It helps explain why the S&P 500 slipped while the Nasdaq edged up 0.24%. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
186,340.46
+1.37%
+21.85%
183,827.59
168,310
167,142
—
IPSA
10,969.49
-0.78%
—
11,055.94
11,210
10,984
1,513,213,483
IPC MEX
64,214.36
-1.38%
+12.17%
65,110.57
66,121
65,405
108,886,187
MERVAL
2,819,323
+1.32%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
COLCAP
2,549.16
-0.38%
—
9.04
9.05
9.02
4,133
BVL PERÚ
60,410.88
-0.96%
—
—
—
—
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
USD/MXN
17.06
-0.24%
-8.58%
17.10
17.08
17.01
—
USD/CLP
913.98
+0.04%
-5.67%
913.65
915.11
906.68
—
USD/COP
3,140
+0.03%
-22.04%
3,139
3,141
3,105
—
USD/PEN
3.36
-0.66%
-4.82%
3.38
3.38
3.35
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
USD/UYU
40.27
+1.24%
+1.80%
39.77
40.27
40.23
—
USD/PYG
5,939
+1.68%
-19.54%
5,841
5,939
5,925
—
USD/BOB
11.64
-0.76%
+72.04%
11.73
11.72
11.64
—
USD/DOP
58.34
+1.25%
-3.44%
57.62
58.34
58.04
—
USD/CRC
445.92
+0.89%
-9.71%
441.97
448.50
445.92
—
03 What the data shows — banks led, retailers jumped
| Stock | Move | Turnover | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITUB4 | +4.7% | R$3,269m (US$632m) | Itaú; largest turnover, led the bank rally |
| VALE3 | +0.4% | R$1,667m (US$322m) | Vale; heavy flow, small gain |
| PETR4 | 0.0% | R$1,561m (US$302m) | Petrobras preferred; flat |
| MGLU3 | +12.5% | R$362m (US$70m) | Magazine Luiza; heavy turnover, retail rebound |
| TOTS3 | −3.5% | R$334m (US$65m) | Totvs; biggest Ibovespa loser |
| BHIA3 | +14.0% | R$31m (US$6m) | Casas Bahia; retailer surged on light volume |
| BRKM5 | +14.0% | R$23m (US$4m) | Braskem; petrochemicals, light volume |
| PCAR3 | +11.7% | R$32m (US$6m) | Pão de Açúcar; food retail jump |
The B3 table shows where the money went. Itaú traded R$3.27 billion (US$632 million), more than any other stock, and rose 4.7%; Banco do Brasil and Bradesco gained 4.7% and 4.1%. Vale and Petrobras drew heavy volumes but barely moved.
Retailers supplied the biggest percentage moves. Magazine Luiza rose 12.5% on R$362 million (US$70 million) of turnover. Casas Bahia and Braskem each jumped 14%, but on light volume, so those moves say less about broad demand.
04 Brazil and the currencies
The real firmed 0.76% to 5.174 per US dollar in the last session, a sign that carry-trade demand is still alive despite 5.3% US Treasury yields. Brazil’s 13.75% Selic rate has kept the real more resilient than several regional peers.
The Mexican peso eased 0.12% to 18.0687 per US dollar and the Chilean peso was little changed at 972.53 per US dollar. The Colombian peso firmed 0.68% to 3,307.50 per US dollar after the central bank’s surprise rate rise. Argentina’s official rate was steady at 1,525 per US dollar, and the Merval rose 1.32%.
Brazil’s next macro cue is the S&P Global manufacturing PMI at 10:00 BRT today, forecast at 46.5, which would signal continued contraction. August industrial production follows on Friday, on the same morning as US payrolls.
05 The regional setup
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +1.37% |
| Merval | Argentina | +1.32% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | −0.38% |
| IPSA | Chile | −0.78% |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | −1.38% |
The regional board split along local lines. Brazil and Argentina rose, while Colombia, Chile and Mexico fell. Mexico’s 1.38% drop was the steepest, with losses spread across heavyweights including América Móvil and Banorte.
Firm oil prices should favour Colombia’s COLCAP and Brazil’s Petrobras, but the COLCAP still fell in the last session. Banco de la República’s surprise quarter-point rise to 12.25% weighed on shares sensitive to financing costs.
06 The technical picture
The Ibovespa is the most interesting chart: it has gained in two straight sessions, yet remains 6.2% below its 52-week closing high of 198,657 from 14 April. That leaves room for momentum buyers if the real holds firm.
Mexico’s IPC sits closer to its 52-week low than its high. At 64,214 it is 10.3% below its 52-week closing high of 71,601 from 11 February. That gives Mexican equities more upside potential but also makes them sensitive to any deterioration in US trade or rate sentiment.
The US 10-year yield’s rise is the key external technical signal. If yields keep climbing, Latin American equity valuations face more pressure; firm oil prices should cushion the commodity-heavy boards.
07 Wednesday’s data, one by one
Our Wednesday edition flagged Brazil’s fiscal data, Chile’s labour and output figures, US jobs and inflation, Colombia’s unemployment and rate decision, and three Fed speakers. Here is how each landed.
Brazil fiscal data, 08:30 BRT. The public sector posted a primary deficit of R$10.0 billion (US$1.9 billion) in August. The nominal deficit was R$115.9 billion (US$22.4 billion), wider than the R$109 billion (US$21 billion) expected, and gross debt rose to 82.9% of GDP against an 83.1% forecast. Producer prices rose 0.36% on the month against a forecast fall. The real still firmed.
Chile, 09:00 BRT. Unemployment rose to 9.6% in the June–August quarter, above the 9.5% expected. Industrial production fell 5.7% on the year in August, worse than forecast, and copper output was 12.8% lower. Retail sales grew 3.4% on the year. The IPSA fell 0.78%.
United States, 09:15 to 10:45 BRT. ADP counted 90,000 private jobs in September, above the 70,000 expected. August PCE inflation was 3.4% on the year against the 3.7% we flagged, and core PCE 3.0% against 3.3%. The Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8. The inflation miss was the day’s main driver for Latin American stocks.
Colombia, 12:00 and 15:00 BRT. Unemployment rose to 9.4% in August from 8.6% a year earlier. The central bank then surprised the expected hold with a quarter-point rise to 12.25%; the board voted four for the rise, two for a hold and one for a half-point increase.
Fed speakers. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari were scheduled after the US close; Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, also on our list, speaks today instead. Markets kept their focus on the PCE data, a day after New York Fed President John Williams said one further rate rise may be appropriate late this year.
08 What to watch
- Peru and Chile, 05:00 and 08:30 BRT: Peru’s September inflation (4.7% expected on the year) and Chile’s August economic activity index, forecast at −0.4% on the year after −1.5%
- Factory surveys: Mexico business confidence at 09:00 BRT; Brazil’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI at 10:00 BRT (46.5 expected); Mexico’s PMI (50.0) and Colombia’s Davivienda PMI (52.9) at 12:00 BRT
- United States: Weekly jobless claims at 09:30 BRT and the ISM manufacturing index at 11:00 BRT (55.0 expected), plus speeches by Fed officials including Barkin, Waller and Williams
- Argentina, 17:00 BRT: September tax revenue
- Friday and Sunday: US payrolls (about 90,000 expected) and Brazil’s August industrial production on Friday; the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, 4 October
Background: Latin American Markets Open Quietly Before Mexico Rate Decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main signal from the overnight tape for Latin America?
US stock futures were higher early on Thursday after softer US inflation data, but the US 10-year yield rose to 5.291% on Wednesday, which keeps conditions tight for emerging markets.
How did Brazil’s market perform in the last session?
The Ibovespa rose 1.37% to 186,340, led by banks such as Itaú Unibanco and Banco do Brasil, which gained 4.7% each. Magazine Luiza jumped 12.5%.
Why did Mexico and Chile slip while Brazil gained?
Mexico’s IPC fell 1.38% with losses across its heavyweights, and Chile’s IPSA lost 0.78% after weak industrial and jobs data. Brazil’s rally was concentrated in banks.
What should investors watch on Thursday?
Factory surveys in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, Chile’s economic activity index and the US ISM manufacturing index. US payrolls follow on Friday and Brazil votes on Sunday.
Source: RT live market data, close of Wednesday 30 September 2026; official S&P/BMV IPC close from BMV; COLCAP close from BVC.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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