Iron Ore’s Year-End Standoff: Tight Fines Meet Rising Stocks

Key Points

• SGX IODEX-linked 62% Fe traded around $107.15/t this morning, with roughly 11.27k contracts on the feed.
• Port inventories rose to 148.8 million tons, while mills’ finished-steel stocks fell to 14.5 million tonnes.
• Supply quirks support the floor, while 2026 steel controls and export rules shape the ceiling.

The SGX IODEX-linked 62% contract hovered around $107.15 a ton. Reuters in Asia put the January SGX benchmark near $103.95.

In China, the most-traded Dalian contract sat around 773.5 yuan a ton (about $110.40). Cash dashboards were still showing the prior print around $106.94 (as of Dec 24).

Overnight sentiment softened with the steel chain. Dalian coking coal and coke fell about 4.04% and 3.39%, and nearly half of coking-coal auction cargoes on Dec 25 reportedly failed to find buyers.

Mysteel still put inventories of five major carbon steel products at about 14.5 million tonnes by Dec 25, the lowest since late January.

The physical overhang is at the ports. Inventories stood at about 145.26 million tonnes by Dec 26, down 4.07% week-on-week, after about 145.5 million tons on Dec 19 (up 1.19% week-on-week).

That build has capped rallies. Navigate Commodities’ Atilla Widnell cited restricted supply of BHP’s Jimblebar and Jingbao fines, pushing buyers toward Rio Tinto Pilbara material and “dragged the whole complex higher.”

Policy is the medium-term limiter. Beijing has reiterated plans to regulate crude steel output and prohibit illegal new capacity during 2026–2030.

Japan’s steel lobby chief said China’s proposed 2026 export-licensing regime would not fix excess exports or restore prices. On supply, Vale cut its 2026 output forecast as the market also prepares for new African tons, including Simandou.

Outside China, India’s Jan–Oct imports topped 10 million tonnes, a six-year high. The VanEck Steel ETF showed net flows around +$4.24m over five days and +$27.18m over one month.

On the 4-hour chart, RSI is near 53.9 and MACD momentum is fading (histogram about -0.03; lines near 0.07 and 0.04).

Daily momentum is flatter but positive (RSI near 59.3; MACD about 0.48 vs 0.47), and the weekly bias remains up (RSI near 59.5; histogram about +0.17). Traders are mapping resistance around $107.2–$108.3 and support near $105.5–$106.0.

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