Iron Ore Slides to New Lows as China Demand Falters and Technicals Signal Downtrend

Iron ore prices continued their decline in the last 24 hours, with the SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China Index Futures dropping to $94.95 per ton as of early June 3, 2025, according to official Singapore Exchange data.

This marks a fall of $0.30, or 0.31%, from the previous session, extending a downward move that began in late May. The price now trades below the psychologically important $95 level, a threshold that has repeatedly acted as key support throughout 2025.

The latest chart data show a clear bearish technical picture. The price has broken below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, which now all sit above current levels. This breakdown confirms a strong downtrend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to fall but remains above oversold territory, indicating persistent negative momentum without yet reaching extreme levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative, with the signal line below zero, confirming that bearish momentum dominates.

Bollinger Bands have widened as volatility increased, and price candles now consistently touch or breach the lower band, underscoring strong selling pressure. No significant volume spike has accompanied the move, suggesting steady but not panicked selling.

Fundamental factors reinforce the technical weakness. Chinese steel demand remains subdued as the property sector continues to struggle.

Official steel production data show only modest growth, and blast furnace utilization rates have stabilized at lower levels, reflecting cautious sentiment among Chinese mills.

Inventories at Chinese ports remain high, with the latest figures showing 146.85 million tons, up 28% year-on-year. This oversupply weighs on prices, as steelmakers switch from restocking to just-in-time purchasing.

On the supply side, Australian and Brazilian shipments remain stable. Earlier disruptions from cyclonic weather have faded, and no new supply shocks have emerged.

However, Rio Tinto’s ongoing quality downgrade of Pilbara Blend fines from 61.6% to 60.8% Fe through September 2025 forces steelmakers to buy more ore to meet requirements, but this has not offset the broader demand weakness.

Macroeconomic data from China remain lackluster. The latest Purchasing Managers Index readings point to contraction in manufacturing, while fixed asset investment growth has slowed.

Heavy industry investment, which previously supported steel demand, now shows signs of plateauing. Market participants have not reported any major ETF inflows or outflows, and trading volumes remain steady, reflecting a wait-and-see approach.

Analysts expect prices to remain under pressure unless Chinese demand rebounds or significant supply disruptions occur. The $94.75 level now acts as immediate support, with further downside possible if current trends persist.

Iron ore’s slide below $95 highlights the market’s sensitivity to Chinese demand and the absence of bullish catalysts. The technical and fundamental landscape both point to continued caution for traders and producers in the days ahead.

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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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