Iron Ore Market Briefing: Technical Consolidation Around $99/MT Amid Supply-Demand Balance
Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China (TSI) futures are trading in a narrow range around $99-100 per metric ton as of May 29, 2025 morning, reflecting continued market stability amid mixed demand signals from China.
The Singapore Exchange (SGX) TSI Iron Ore CFR China futures have shown modest volatility overnight, with prices consolidating near recent levels.
Market Performance: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 2.2% from the start of May to $99.73 per ton as of May 23, 2025, despite experiencing a 2.3% decline over the previous week.
Meanwhile, Singapore Exchange prices slightly decreased to $98.25 per ton, marking a 0.05% drop for the month and a 3.1% decline for the week.
Overnight Activity: Seaborne iron ore prices edged higher in recent sessions, with the most-traded June contract on SGX gaining $0.25 per tonne from the previous settlement price of $99.40 per tonne.
Trading activity remained steady as market participants balanced stable supply conditions against cautious demand outlook.
Fundamental Analysis
Demand Dynamics: Chinese steel demand continues to face headwinds from a sluggish construction sector recovery and lackluster macroeconomic indicators.
However, demand has been supported by high rates of hot metal production, driven by rising steel prices and improved steelmaking margins.
A Shanghai-based analyst noted that downstream steel demand remains resilient due to soaring Chinese steel exports, as exporters rush to capitalize on the 90-day pause in US-China tariffs that took effect on May 14.
Supply Conditions: Major iron ore suppliers maintain steady production levels, with Australian Pilbara shipments continuing at around 16.5 million tons per week and Brazilian exports showing no significant disruption.
Combined inventories at Chinese ports stand at 138 million metric tons, well above the 135 million ton threshold that could trigger panic buying.
Inventory Levels: Chinese mill inventories have dropped to an average of 28 days’ consumption, down from 35 days in early March. This shift has reduced the urgency for bulk purchasing, keeping price movements contained within a narrow trading range.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators suggest iron ore futures are breaking above short-term moving averages, with resistance at $99.65 and support at $98.49. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 60, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
The MACD has turned positive, suggesting some short-term momentum, though longer-term indicators remain cautious.
Key technical levels show:
- 5-Day Moving Average: $101.39 (+0.91%)
- 20-Day Moving Average: $104.09 (-5.30%)
- 50-Day Moving Average: $102.93 (+2.64%)
- Critical Support: $95.40
Market Outlook and Analyst Commentary
Short-term Forecast: Analysts expect iron ore prices to remain within a $95-105 per ton range in the near term, with future dynamics dependent on macroeconomic signals from China and trade negotiations with the US.
Market participants noted that while high hot metal production supports demand short-term, upside potential remains capped by uncertainty over steel demand in coming months.
Medium-term Projections: Moody‘s anticipates iron ore prices to stay between $80-100 per ton over the next 12-18 months, driven by weak Chinese demand and ample global supply.
BMI Country Risk and Industry Research analysts maintain an average annual price forecast of $100 per ton for 2025.
Seasonal Factors: The approaching dull season for steel demand could affect construction activity due to warmer weather in northern China and the rainy season in southern regions.
Additionally, seaborne iron ore supplies are expected to increase as miners typically ramp up shipments during May and June.
Trading Activity and Market Sentiment
Trading volumes on SGX remain steady with open interest at 277,590 contracts, signaling ongoing but cautious participation. ETF flows show little movement, reflecting the market’s wait-and-see approach as traders await fresh Chinese economic data.
The market’s current balance reflects stable supply conditions, cautious demand patterns, and technical uncertainty, with any decisive directional move likely dependent on fresh signals from China, the world’s largest iron ore consumer.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
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| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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