Iron Ore Futures Hover Near $99 as China Demand Signals Remain Mixed

Iron ore futures traded around $99.25 per metric ton on Tuesday morning according to Singapore Exchange data. The TSI 62% Fe CFR China Index Futures showed modest volatility after Monday’s session closed near current levels.

Technical indicators paint a cautious picture for the commodity. Price action remains below both 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating bearish momentum persists.

The Relative Strength Index sits near 60, showing neutral conditions without overbought or oversold signals. MACD indicators appear to flatten, suggesting fading bullish momentum from previous sessions.

Bollinger Bands display narrow ranges, pointing to reduced volatility in recent trading. Support levels emerge at $98.49 and $98.00, while resistance builds around $99.65 and $100.48.

These technical boundaries frame the current trading range as markets await fresh catalysts. Chinese steel demand continues to weigh on sentiment. Real estate investment fell 10.1% year-on-year through the first nine months of 2024.

New construction starts contracted 22.2% during the same period. These figures reflect ongoing challenges in China’s property sector, the world’s largest iron ore consumer.

Steel mills have shifted purchasing patterns toward just-in-time buying strategies. Mill inventories dropped to 28 days of consumption from 35 days in early March. This change reduces bulk buying urgency and limits price volatility in both directions.

Supply conditions remain stable across major exporters. Australian Pilbara shipments continue at approximately 16.5 million tons weekly. Brazilian exports show no significant disruptions.

Combined inventories at Chinese ports reached 138 million metric tons, exceeding the 135 million ton threshold that typically triggers aggressive restocking. zzzzzUBS analysts maintain their $100 per ton average forecast for 2025.

Iron Ore Outlook Weakens on China Demand Uncertainty

The investment bank projects prices declining to $95 per ton in 2026 and $90 per ton in 2027. These estimates reflect expectations of moderate surplus conditions developing over the medium term.

Trading Economics data shows iron ore decreased 3.44% since the beginning of 2025. The commodity reached an all-time high of $219.77 in July 2021 but has faced persistent headwinds from Chinese demand concerns.

Open interest on SGX futures stands at 277,590 contracts, indicating steady but cautious market participation. ETF flows remain minimal, reflecting the current wait-and-see approach among institutional investors.

Market participants focus on upcoming Chinese manufacturing data for clearer direction signals. Steel production trends and property sector indicators will likely drive near-term price movements.

The current technical setup suggests continued range-bound trading until fundamental catalysts emerge from China’s economic data releases.

Trading volumes maintain steady levels across major exchanges, though decisive directional moves await fresh demand signals from the world’s largest iron ore consumer.

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