The Rio Times · Chile Market Report
Morning Edition · March 24, 2026 · Covering March 23 Session
The Big Three
1
The IPSA was the odd one out in Latin America, falling 0.49% to 10,227.64 while every other major regional index rallied on Trump’s ceasefire signal. La Tercera reported that the Chilean market “decoupled from the trend,” flipping from positive to negative territory during the session. This is the fourth consecutive loss, totaling a 3.76% decline over the streak. The index briefly touched 10,421 before reversing to close near the session low of 10,225.
2
The peso told the opposite story, surging 1.83% to CLP 910.16 per dollar — the strongest single-session gain in weeks. Infobae reported the move from Friday’s 927.10, driven by copper’s rally (+3.20% to $5.45/lb on Comex futures) and the broad dollar selloff following the Trump announcement. La Tercera noted the peso strengthened in line with greater global risk tolerance and copper support. The equity-FX divergence suggests the IPSA’s decline was driven by domestic positioning flows rather than macro fundamentals.
3
The BCCh publishes its Informe de Política Monetaria (IPoM) this week — the first under President Kast. With swap rates having surged last week on rate-hike speculation, the IPoM’s inflation projections and forward guidance will be the most consequential event for Chilean markets this quarter. The oil crash below $100 eases one key inflation input, but copper at $5.45 introduces a complex cross-current: positive for the trade balance but potentially inflationary if it feeds through to domestic demand.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| S&P IPSA | 10,227.64 | −0.49% |
| USD/CLP | 910.16 | −1.83% |
| Copper (Comex futures) | $5.45/lb | +3.20% |
| Brent Crude | $99.94 | −10.92% |
| BCCh TPM | 4.50% | IPoM this week |
| S&P 500 | 6,580.25 | +1.13% |
02 Equities
The Chile stock market IPSA today was Latin America’s worst performer despite a global risk-on session that lifted Wall Street 1.13% and the Argentine Merval 1.93%. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Chilean stock market and Latin American financial markets. The decoupling signals domestic selling pressure — likely linked to pre-IPoM positioning and the continuation of FTSE rebalancing flows that hammered the index on Friday.
| Top Gainers | Chg |
| Latam Airlines | +2.1% |
| Mallplaza | +1.5% |
| Parque Arauco | +1.2% |
| Enel Chile | +0.8% |
| CCU | +0.5% |
| Top Losers | Chg |
| SQM-B | −3.2% |
| CAP | −2.8% |
| Cencosud | −2.1% |
| Falabella | −1.9% |
| Bci | −1.5% |
SQM-B continued its slide on heavy volume as lithium sentiment remains weak despite copper strength. Latam Airlines was the session’s main gainer, benefiting from the oil crash that slashes jet fuel costs and peso strength that boosts dollar-denominated revenue. The retail names (Cencosud, Falabella) continued to weaken on inflation concerns and consumer sentiment.
03 Currency
The peso surged 1.83% to CLP 910.16 — its best session since mid-March and a sharp reversal from Friday’s 927.10. The move was driven by three converging forces: the 11% Brent crash eases Chile’s oil import bill, copper futures rallied 3.20% to $5.45/lb on Comex (the spot price in London lagged at $5.39, down 1.09%), and the DXY fell 0.5% on the Trump ceasefire announcement. The equity-FX divergence is notable: the peso is pricing in the global relief while the IPSA is absorbing domestic selling pressure.
04 Technical Analysis
Four consecutive down sessions have pushed the IPSA to 10,227.64, its lowest close since early March. The MACD histogram at −7.64 is barely negative but the signal lines at −137.68 and −145.32 remain deeply bearish. RSI at 40.89/36.52 is approaching oversold territory. The 200-day SMA at 9,564 sits 6.5% below, confirming the primary uptrend holds. The 10,039 level is the critical near-term floor — a breach would accelerate selling toward the 200-day SMA.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 10,493 | 50-day EMA |
| Resistance 1 | 10,444 | 20-day EMA |
| Monday Close | 10,227.64 | March 23, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 10,039 | March low zone |
| Support 2 | 9,564 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
Chile is the clearest beneficiary of lower oil among the four LATAM markets — as a net importer, the Brent crash to $99.94 directly eases the trade deficit and inflation pressure. Copper at $5.45 provides an additional tailwind for the peso and fiscal revenue. Yet the IPSA’s inability to rally alongside these positives suggests that pre-IPoM hedging and residual FTSE rebalancing outflows are dominating short-term flows. The IPoM will determine whether the rate-hike pricing that emerged last week was warranted or an overcorrection.
07 Looking Ahead
The IPoM is the week’s dominant event. If the BCCh treats the oil shock as transitory and maintains its easing bias, the IPSA should catch up to the peso’s move and rally. If the IPoM signals a hawkish shift or rate hike, the four-session losing streak could deepen toward 10,039. Trump’s five-day ceasefire window and copper’s trajectory are the external swing factors. President Kast’s initial policy actions — spending cuts, faster permitting — continue to support structural confidence but cannot offset the near-term macro uncertainty.
08 Verdict
Bias: BEARISH near-term, but macro improving. Four straight losses and decoupling from the global rally confirm selling pressure. However, the peso’s 1.83% surge and copper at $5.45 signal that macro conditions are improving beneath the surface. The IPoM is the catalyst that reconciles the equity-FX divergence. A close above 10,444 upgrades to Neutral. Below 10,039 targets 9,564.
Related: Latin America Markets | Chile News | Brazil Economy