Mexico IPC Jumps 1.01% Ending Two-Day Slide on Televisa Rally

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — The Rebound With Narrow Leadership

IPC Mexico today enters Thursday’s session on stronger footing after the S&P/BMV IPC rose 1.01% on Wednesday, reclaiming the 21-day EMA and ending a two-session decline. This Mexico stock market report covers a day when one single stock — Grupo Televisa — accounted for an outsized share of the index move, while the tortilla sector delivered the most politically significant domestic-inflation headline of the month. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American equity markets.

The session structure was clean: the index opened lower at 69,016, traded down to 68,539 in the first hour, then reversed hard as institutional buyers stepped in around the Monday close level. From there, price ground higher in an almost linear fashion through the afternoon, printing 69,740 before easing modestly into the close at 69,634. The 70,000 psychological level was tested but not taken — consistent with the range-bound regime that has defined the IPC through early April.

Televisa’s 6.44% move to 10.75 pesos was the session’s headline. The sector leadership — Industrials, Consumer Goods & Services, Consumer Staples — confirms the rebound was a domestic positioning story: defensive names and nearshoring-linked industrials, not energy or materials. Ecopetrol and Pemex-adjacent names did not lead. For the IPC’s risk profile, the read-through is that Wednesday’s bounce was the mirror image of Tuesday’s oil-driven decline: when Brent fell from $99 back toward the mid-$90s, domestic-facing Mexican equities recovered the ground the oil-sensitive names had handed back earlier in the week.

03 Tortilla Hike — The Inflation Headline That Matters

Of every Mexican inflation data point the market tracks — INPC, Banxico’s core, subyacente — none carries the political weight of the tortilla price. On Wednesday, April 15, the Consejo Nacional de la Tortilla confirmed increases of 2 to 4 pesos per kilogram took effect nationwide, and did so over the explicit public objection of President Sheinbaum, who insisted there was “no reason” for a hike because corn prices sit at historic lows.

The tortilla sector’s response is economically correct: corn is not the binding constraint. Fuel, transport, electricity, and packaging costs are — and those have moved materially higher since the Hormuz blockade tightened Gulf crude differentials. Each of Mexico’s roughly 90,000 tortillerías sets its own price based on its own cost structure. The decentralized nature of the decision means a federal intervention short of direct price controls (which neither Sheinbaum nor Hacienda has signaled) is unlikely to reverse the move.

For markets, the tortilla hike is the cleanest retail-level signal that war inflation has reached the Mexican consumer through transport rather than commodities. Sheinbaum’s scheduled meetings this week with gasolineros, Pemex, Profeco, and the Agriculture Ministry will be watched closely: a fuel subsidy announcement would be bullish for consumer staples margins; a more confrontational posture toward tortillerías would raise medium-term policy risk for the entire food value chain.

04 Peso, Banxico and the USMCA Clock

The peso traded near 17.30 against the dollar through the session, holding the range that has defined Q1–Q2 2026. Banxico‘s policy rate at 6.75% — after thirteen cuts since early 2024 — still provides roughly 300 basis points of carry over the Fed, which remains the single largest mechanical support for the MXN. The combination of carry, record nearshoring-driven FDI, and Mexico’s position as the United States’ largest trading partner (15.5% of US trade flows vs 12.9% for Canada and 7.7% for China) is what keeps the peso anchored despite cyclical drags.

The policy clock is dominated by the July 2026 USMCA mid-term review. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard’s team continues to work through the 52 US trade demands tabled ahead of the review, while Mexico has placed countervailing tariffs on 1,400 Chinese imports. The Section 122 surcharge — 10% on non-USMCA-compliant Mexican goods — is still on the calendar, with a pending increase to 15%. If the surcharge expires in July without congressional renewal, it drops to zero: a scenario that would be materially bullish for nearshoring-linked names (automotive, industrial, logistics). CBP refunds from the overturned IEEPA tariffs are expected by late April, which should provide a small but visible flow tailwind for affected exporters.

05 Technical Analysis — S&P/BMV IPC Daily

From the chart: O:69,016.43, H:69,740.29, L:68,539.21, C:69,634.71 (+693.25, +1.01%). The session printed a bullish reversal candle with a lower wick that successfully tested the 68,598 Kijun-sen level before recovering. The close at 69,634 sits above the 21-day EMA (69,549), the Tenkan-sen (69,634), and back inside the Ichimoku cloud’s upper third — a mechanical signal that the short-term bearish transition suggested by the prior two sessions has been at least partially rejected.

RSI at 55.71 with signal at 54.36 is neutral but clearly turning up from the low-50s, giving the bounce room to extend before the indicator becomes a ceiling. MACD at 475.11 with signal at 279.73 (histogram 195.38) remains positive and is expanding — the MACD profile is in fact the strongest of any major LatAm benchmark heading into Thursday. Upper Bollinger Band resistance sits at 71,659; the measured move from Wednesday’s low back through the open implies fair value near 69,900–70,200 if the rebound continues. Key support band: 69,549 (21-EMA) → 68,948 (cloud edge) → 67,946 (lower cloud boundary) → 67,751 (50-day SMA).

06 Key Levels

07 Looking Ahead

Thursday’s test is whether the IPC can break through the 70,000 psychological wall. Wednesday’s high at 69,740 came within 260 points of the level; a follow-through session that clears it would put the February cloud-top resistance near the 71,000 zone into play. A reversal that loses 69,549 (21-EMA) on a closing basis resets the range bias, with 68,598 (Kijun-sen) as the next meaningful test.

The macro calendar is crowded. Sheinbaum’s scheduled meetings with gasolineros and Pemex will produce headlines that directly affect consumer staples, airlines, and transport names. The CBP tariff refunds from the IEEPA reversal are due by late April — a visible flow event for nearshoring exporters. And the July USMCA review remains the single binary catalyst that dominates the medium-term distribution: a clean renewal plus Section 122 expiry would be the single most bullish outcome for the IPC in 2026; a confrontational review would do the opposite.

Key dates: This week — Sheinbaum meeting with fuel distributors, Pemex, Profeco, Agriculture Ministry. Late April — CBP IEEPA-tariff refunds to affected exporters. June 11 — FIFA World Cup kickoff. July 2026 — USMCA mid-term review formal opening.

Related coverage:

Previous IPC report: Mexico’s IPC Falls 0.94% to 68,941 as Oil Drag Deepens

Tortilla and war inflation: From Hormuz to the Tortillería: How the Iran War Is Raising Mexican Food Prices

Economy guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Nearshoring, Banxico and the Peso

Plan México: Sheinbaum Opens First $540M Development Hub in Tlaxcala

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Published by The Rio Times.

Deep Dive

For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

Read More from The Rio Times

• Moody’s Cools Hopes for Mexico World Cup Windfall
• Santo Domingo Hosts the Centennial Caribbean Games This Summer
• What the Santo Domingo Merengue Festival Says About the Caribbean