Mexican IPC Pulls Back From 70K on Liberation Day Anniversary

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — 70,000 Rejection Triggers Sharp Reversal

The IPC Mexico today gave back Tuesday’s entire 1.59% gain and more, falling approximately 2.6% to the 67,900 area in a session that confirmed the 70,000 psychological barrier as the dominant near-term resistance. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Mexican stock market and Latin American financial markets.

The reversal was decisive: after Tuesday’s bullish session that saw the index touch 69,928 — just 72 points below 70,000 — Wednesday’s sellers emerged aggressively, pushing the IPC back below the 68,810 mid-range level and toward the 50-day moving average near 67,345. The session’s timing on the one-year anniversary of Liberation Day added a symbolic catalyst for profit-taking, as media coverage revisited the economic damage caused by tariffs and reminded markets of the persistent uncertainty in U.S. trade policy.

Grupo Mexico, América Móvil, and Walmex — the same heavyweights that led Tuesday’s rally — were among the session’s biggest decliners. The swift round-trip from 69,928 to approximately 67,900 in under 48 hours is characteristic of a market that wants to go higher but lacks the fundamental conviction to sustain a breakout above major resistance.

03 Liberation Day Anniversary — One Year Later

April 2, 2026 marked exactly one year since Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs imposed a 10% baseline levy on imports from most countries, with higher rates targeting 60 nations. Mexico and Canada were largely exempt under the USMCA, but the broader trade shock reverberated through global supply chains. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026, and the government is now processing an estimated $166 billion in refunds to more than 330,000 businesses.

For Mexico, the trade landscape has evolved significantly. The USMCA exemption means roughly 84–85% of Mexican exports enter the U.S. tariff-free. However, Section 232 tariffs on steel (50%) and aluminum remain in force, and the administration has signaled intent to pursue Section 301 investigations as an alternative tariff tool. The USMCA review under Article 34.7 — set for mid-2026 — will determine whether the agreement is extended to 2042, maintained with annual reviews, or allowed to expire in 2036. Mexico’s own tariffs of up to 50% on non-treaty imports (primarily Chinese goods) are part of its Plan México strategy to align with Washington’s supply chain security agenda.

04 Technical Analysis — IPC Daily

The IPC is trading near 67,900, having fallen sharply from Tuesday’s close of 69,702. The index is now testing the 50-day moving average near 67,345, a critical support level. The upper Bollinger Band at 70,093 confirmed itself as resistance when the index failed at 69,928 on Tuesday, and the rejection has been forceful. Below the 50-day MA, the next support cluster is at 66,846–66,854, followed by the 200-day moving average at 63,756.

The MACD remains positive at 429.44 but the histogram at −237.97 and signal at −667.41 show rapidly decelerating momentum — the bullish signal from Tuesday has been reversed in a single session. The RSI at 58.91 from Tuesday will have declined significantly, likely toward the 50 neutral zone. A secondary oscillator at 42.35 confirms the weakening momentum. The key takeaway: the failed breakout above 70,000 followed by a sharp reversal is a classic “bull trap” pattern that often leads to further consolidation or a deeper pullback before the next genuine attempt at the highs.

05 Key Levels

06 News in Focus

SCOTUS Tariff Refund Saga Continues

One year after Liberation Day, the fallout continues. The Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling declared IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional in a 6-3 decision, and the Court of International Trade ordered CBP to refund duties on all unliquidated entries. The government has estimated $166 billion was collected from over 330,000 businesses during the IEEPA tariff period. The refund process is ongoing and represents a significant one-time boost for importers, though the Trump administration quickly replaced the voided tariffs with a 10% across-the-board levy under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24 and scheduled for 150 days.

USMCA Review Looms as Central Risk

The mid-2026 USMCA review under Article 34.7 is Mexico’s most consequential trade event of the year. The review will determine whether the agreement is extended to 2042 or enters a phase of annual renewals. Mexico retains strategic advantages — proximity, industrial ecosystem, and 73% of U.S. trade-related GDP shared between Canada and Mexico — but Washington has signaled concerns about regulatory delays, restrictions in energy and lithium sectors, telecom monopolies, and Mexico’s trade relationship with China. President Sheinbaum’s imposition of up to 50% tariffs on Chinese imports through Plan México is a clear signal to Washington that Mexico intends to stay aligned.

Growth Outlook Increasingly Fragile

The IPC’s inability to sustain gains above 69,000 reflects the underlying tension in Mexico’s economic data. Banxico cut 25bp to 6.75% on March 26 citing economic weakness, but inflation at 4.63% remains stubbornly above target. January’s economic activity index fell 0.9% month-over-month — its worst performance since late 2024 — and manufacturing contracted 3%. GDP growth forecasts range from the IIF’s pessimistic 0.9% to the government’s optimistic 2.3%, with Banxico at 1.6% and the OECD at 1.4%. The Pemex April debt cycle (US$6.4 billion due) adds fiscal risk, and the 2026 World Cup provides a rare bright spot for tourism-driven growth.

07 Global Context

The Liberation Day anniversary provided a global moment of reflection on trade policy’s impact. U.S. manufacturing employment fell by approximately 100,000 jobs in the year since the tariffs, contradicting their stated goal. The auto sector has been particularly affected, with U.S. automotive imports at their lowest since February 2022 and tariff payments frequently exceeding $5 billion per month. For Mexico specifically, the peso’s weakness past 18 per dollar reflects the narrowing Banxico–Fed rate differential and broader EM risk-off sentiment driven by Middle East tensions and oil price volatility. Brent above $92 supports Pemex revenues but complicates Banxico’s inflation fight.

08 Looking Ahead

The IPC’s sharp reversal establishes the 70,000/70,093 zone as a confirmed double-top resistance. The immediate downside target is the 50-day moving average at 67,345 — a close below this level would open a deeper correction toward 66,846 and potentially the 200-day MA at 63,756. A hold above 67,345 would suggest the index is consolidating within its recent range rather than breaking down.

Key events ahead: the next Banxico decision (May), where markets will parse the central bank’s assessment of whether the March cut was a one-off or the start of a renewed easing cycle; the USMCA review timeline and any signals from U.S. Trade Representative regarding Section 301 investigations; the April Pemex debt settlements; and the monthly inflation data. The Section 122 replacement tariffs (10% across-the-board) are scheduled to expire on July 24 — their extension or replacement will be a major positioning event for Mexican exporters and the peso.

This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.

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