Mexico and Canada Close Ranks Before USMCA Showdown
- Over 400 Canadian executives descended on Mexico this week in the largest bilateral trade mission in decades, with 1,000+ business meetings scheduled across Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara
- President Sheinbaum denied Mexico is preparing a “Plan B” if the USMCA collapses, insisting the trade deal will survive — but both countries are quietly building leverage ahead of the mandatory July review, where Trump holds most of the cards
- The two countries announced a joint economic action plan covering critical minerals, energy corridors, and supply chain security — sectors where both need alternatives to U.S. dependence
There is a particular choreography unfolding in Mexico City this week, and it is not subtle. More than 400 Canadian business leaders are meeting with Mexican counterparts in what Canada’s trade minister Dominic LeBlanc called the largest bilateral trade mission his country has organized “in decades, and probably ever.” President Claudia Sheinbaum met Tuesday with LeBlanc and senior cabinet officials from both countries, including Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard. The agenda: new investments, agricultural exports, critical minerals, and clean energy.
The timing is the message. In July, the three countries must complete the first mandatory review of the USMCA, the $2 trillion trade pact that replaced NAFTA in 2020. Trump has called the agreement “irrelevant” and suggested separate bilateral deals. His trade representative has signaled talks would be “more bilateral than trilateral.” The 25% tariffs imposed on non-USMCA goods from both countries last March remain in place, and additional duties on steel, aluminum, and vehicles have compounded the pressure.
Not a Plan B — officially
Sheinbaum was emphatic: there is no “Plan B.” The USMCA will survive, perhaps with modifications, because it benefits all three countries. But the actions tell a different story. In September, she and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed a three-year joint action plan covering energy corridors, infrastructure, and supply chain security. This week’s mission expanded that into concrete sectoral meetings — manufacturing, agriculture, clean technology, and creative industries. Ebrard said Canada and Mexico would present a joint bilateral strategy to their leaders in the first half of 2026.
The strategic logic is straightforward. Bilateral trade between Mexico and Canada has grown twelvefold since the original NAFTA, but both countries remain overwhelmingly dependent on the United States — which is precisely the vulnerability Trump exploits. By deepening their own economic ties, Mexico and Canada don’t replace the U.S. relationship, but they build leverage for the July review. As one Canadian business leader put it: both countries are stronger in the room together. Sheinbaum may not call it a Plan B, but the blueprints are already on the table. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexico affairs and Latin American financial news.
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