Ibovespa Eyes Recovery After Worst Session Since December as Itaú’s Record Earnings Lift Sentiment
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The Ibovespa is set for a tentative rebound on Thursday morning after posting its sharpest single-session decline since December 16, losing 2.14% on Wednesday to close at 181,708 points.\n\\n\n\\nFutures trading near 182,280 suggests modest buying interest, buoyed by Itaú Unibanco’s better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings released after the previous session’s close, though lingering concerns over bank credit quality and dovish nominations to the central bank’s board continue to weigh on sentiment.\n\\n
B3 Morning Snapshot | Thursday, February 5, 2026
\n\\n
| Indicator | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Wednesday close) | 181,708.23 | -2.14% |
| Ibovespa All-Time High (Intraday) | 187,333.83 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Ibovespa Futures (Feb) | 182,280 | +0.31% |
| USD/BRL (Wednesday close) | R$ 5.2495 | -0.01% |
| USD/BRL (Pre-market) | R$ 5.2387 | -0.21% |
| Brent Crude (Mar) | US$ 67.85 | +0.77% |
| S&P 500 (Wednesday close) | 6,876.70 | -0.51% |
| Nasdaq (Wednesday close) | 22,904.57 | -1.51% |
| S&P 500 Futures | 6,897 | +0.29% |
| Nasdaq 100 Futures | — | +0.45% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.48 | +0.18% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | US$ 72,887 | -4.54% |
| VIX | 19.43 | +7.94% |
\n\\nYTD Performance: +12.93% | 52-Week Range: 122,799 – 187,333 | January Flow: R$ 26.3 billion (record foreign inflow)\n\\n
Wednesday Recap: Banks Drag Index to Worst Session in Seven Weeks
\n\\nWednesday’s session marked a brutal reversal for the Ibovespa, which had reached an all-time intraday high of 187,333 points just 24 hours earlier.\n\\n\n\\nThe principal index of the B3 opened at its session high of 185,670.99 and proceeded to sell off throughout the day, hitting an intraday low of 180,268.54 before closing at 181,708.23 — a swing of over 5,400 points from peak to trough.\n\\n\n\\nThe selloff was the most severe since December 16, when the index dropped 2.40%. The financial sector bore the brunt of the correction.\n\\n\n\\n
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.30%
175,664.62
+0.30%
65,484.32
-0.53%
11,445.90
-0.22%
2,979,472
-0.72%
2,457.87
-1.28%
60,779.49
-1.40%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 175,664.62 | +0.30% | +21.85% | 175,135.41 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Key Drivers: Earnings, Central Bank Politics, and Global Tech Rotation
\n\\nThree major catalysts converged to produce Wednesday’s selloff. First, Santander‘s credit quality deterioration set a negative tone for the entire banking sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the Ibovespa’s theoretical portfolio.\n\\n\n\\nWith Itaú and Bradesco still to report, investors adopted a risk-off posture, reasoning that if Santander — which has been selectively expanding — showed rising defaults, other banks might face similar headwinds in a 15% Selic environment.\n\\n\n\\nSecond, the market continued to digest the impending nomination of Guilherme Mello, currently Secretary of Economic Policy at the Finance Ministry, to a directorship at the Central Bank.\n\\n\n\\nMello, an economist with heterodox credentials from PUC-SP and Unicamp, has unsettled market participants who fear a dovish tilt in monetary policy just as the BCB prepares to initiate its rate-cutting cycle in March.\n\\n\n\\nShort-term DI rates widened in response, reflecting concerns that the Copom’s signaled easing could become more aggressive than markets had priced.\n\\n\n\\nThird, the global backdrop offered no refuge. In New York, the Nasdaq fell 1.51% as Advanced Micro Devices plunged 16% after issuing disappointing guidance, while software stocks continued their 2026 slide amid fears that AI tools are disrupting traditional enterprise software business models.\n\\n\n\\nAnthropic’s release of an AI automation tool that services legal work exacerbated these concerns, triggering a broad rotation from technology into value and defensive sectors.\n\\n\n\\nThe Dow managed a 0.53% gain, reflecting the divergent fortunes of old-economy versus tech stocks. Political developments also remained in focus.\n\\n\n\\nA Meio/Ideia poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro advancing in voting intentions, now technically tied with President Lula in a hypothetical second-round scenario for the 2026 elections — 41.1% versus 45.8%, within the 2.5-point margin of error.\n\\n\n\\nWhile political noise has been a recurring feature of the Brazilian market, the tightening race introduces an additional layer of uncertainty heading into the second half of the year.\n\\n
Itaú’s Record Quarter: The Case for a Rebound
\n\\nAfter the close on Wednesday, Itaú Unibanco delivered a record fourth-quarter profit of R$ 12.3 billion, representing a 13.2% increase over the same period in 2024 and surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of R$ 11.369 billion.\n\\n\n\\nThe bank’s return on equity reached 24.4% — its highest since 2015 — while its 90-day non-performing loan ratio held steady at just 1.9%, well below Santander’s 3.7%.\n\\n\n\\nThe bank’s ADRs rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading in New York, providing a potential catalyst for Thursday’s session.\n\\n\n\\nFor the full year of 2025, Itaú posted a record recurring profit of R$ 46.8 billion, with net interest income expanding 8.6% on the client side. CEO Milton Maluhy Filho struck a confident tone, stating the bank enters 2026 “prepared to grow with responsibility.”\n\\n\n\\nThe 2026 guidance projects credit portfolio growth of up to 9.5%, client NII expansion of 5% to 9%, and an efficiency ratio that improved to 38.9% from 40.7% a year ago.\n\\n\n\\nThe strong results stand in sharp contrast to Wednesday’s panic selling in bank stocks and may help stabilize the sector heading into Bradesco’s earnings release after Thursday’s close.\n\\n
Technical Outlook
\n\\n
| Level | Points | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 187,333 | All-time intraday high (Feb 3) |
| Resistance 2 | 185,674 | Record close (Feb 3) |
| Resistance 1 | 182,028 | 4H chart near-term resistance |
| Current | 181,708 | Wednesday close |
| Support 1 | 180,268 | Wednesday intraday low |
| Support 2 | 175,182 | 4H Ichimoku cloud top |
| Support 3 | 171,990 | 1H 200-period MA |
\n\\nFrom a technical perspective, the weekly chart shows the Ibovespa remains firmly in an uptrend, trading well above its major moving averages with the RSI at 82.59 — deep in overbought territory, suggesting that corrections are a natural part of the current advance.\n\\n\n\\nThe daily RSI has pulled back from 75.50 to a more moderate level following Wednesday’s selloff. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD has turned negative with a reading of -733.85, and the RSI sits at 65.46, indicating that momentum has cooled but the medium-term structure remains constructive.\n\\n\n\\nThe 1-hour chart shows a more concerning picture: the RSI has dipped below 50 to 47.89, and the MACD histogram has turned decisively negative at -529.94, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.\n\\n\n\\nThe key level to watch is Wednesday’s low at 180,268 — a break below would open the path toward 175,182, the top of the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. A recovery above 182,028 would suggest the correction has run its course.\n\\n
Analyst Perspectives
\n\\n”The results from Santander triggered a horizontal correction across the entire financial sector, contaminating expectations for Itaú and Bradesco’s numbers,” said Felipe Corleta, partner at Brasil Wealth.\n\\n\n\\n”However, Itaú’s after-hours results prove that credit quality deterioration is not uniform — the bank’s 1.9% NPL ratio is a world apart from Santander’s 3.7%.”\n\\n\n\\nBruno Perri, chief economist at Forum Investimentos, noted that the selloff reflected some “exhaustion” after the market’s relentless January rally.\n\\n\n\\n”Petrobras also showed weakness despite the 3.16% rise in oil prices, confirming that the correction had a technical and positioning component beyond just the bank earnings,” he added.\n\\n\n\\nThe XP Investimentos team, which recently raised its Ibovespa fair-value target to 190,000 points for 2026 with an optimistic scenario of 235,000, characterized the pullback as consistent with normal market dynamics following a 15%+ rally in just five weeks.\n\\n
Looking Ahead: Thursday’s Agenda
\n\\nThe Thursday session will hinge on two critical events. In the morning, investors will digest Itaú’s record results and its 2026 guidance, which projects credit portfolio growth of up to 9.5%.\n\\n\n\\nThe strong numbers could help restore confidence in the banking sector after Wednesday’s rout. After the close, Bradesco will release its fourth-quarter earnings, completing the trifecta of major bank results for the week.\n\\n\n\\nAnalysts will be particularly focused on Bradesco’s credit quality metrics and whether its ongoing turnaround is on track.\n\\n\n\\nGlobally, markets will contend with the fallout from Alphabet’s earnings report, which showed better-than-expected revenue but spooked investors with projected 2026 capital expenditures of $175 to $185 billion — far above the $120 billion Wall Street had modeled.\n\\n\n\\nThe spending guidance lifted Nvidia and Broadcom in after-hours trading, suggesting Thursday could bring a partial recovery for AI hardware names even as software stocks remain under pressure.\n\\n\n\\nThe Bank of England’s rate decision is also on the calendar, while crypto markets remain fragile with Bitcoin trading near $73,000 after a 13% slide over five sessions.\n\\n\n\\nFor the Ibovespa, the question is whether Itaú’s earnings firepower can overcome the lingering headwinds from central bank politics and global tech volatility.\n\\n\n\\nWith the index still up nearly 13% year-to-date and foreign inflows showing no signs of abating, the structural bullish case remains intact — but investors should brace for elevated volatility as the earnings season and political cycle intensify.\n\\n\n\\n
\n\\n\n\\nData sources: B3, Bloomberg, Reuters, Investing.com, XP Investimentos, InfoMoney, Trading Economics\n
For broader market context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for this date. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
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