Guyana Economy Grew 33.3% in First Half of 2026, Ali Says

A Startling Growth Number

Guyana’s economy grew 33.3 percent in the first half of 2026, President Irfaan Ali said at a press conference Monday. The figure covers overall real GDP, which includes the country’s fast-expanding offshore oil sector.

Ali also said the government has raised its full-year growth forecast to 20.8 percent. That is a sharp jump from the 16.2 percent projection the government gave in January, according to Reuters.

Guyana Times and other local outlets reported the figures Monday and Tuesday. NCN Guyana, the state broadcaster, carried similar numbers from the same press conference.

Where the 33.3% Comes From

Oil and gas output grew 41.3 percent in the first half of the year, according to the figures Ali presented. Mining and quarrying overall grew 40.7 percent, with gold mining up 11.3 percent and bauxite up 7.3 percent.

Other mining activity, including sand, stone, manganese and diamonds, grew 40 percent. Agricultural sectors also expanded, with sugar output up 19.3 percent and rice up 4.4 percent.

Forestry grew 15.4 percent and fishing grew 4.1 percent over the same period. Services expanded a more modest 7.2 percent, and manufacturing grew just 3 percent.

Those numbers show growth concentrated heavily in extractive industries rather than the broader economy. Oil, gas and mining together explain most of the headline 33.3 percent figure.

The Smaller, More Telling Number

Strip out oil, and Guyana’s non-oil economy grew 10.1 percent in the first half of 2026. That is still a strong growth rate by global standards, but far below the 33.3 percent headline figure.

The non-oil forecast for the full year sits at just 10.2 percent, according to the same announcement. Economists typically treat non-oil growth as a better gauge of how ordinary Guyanese are faring.

The International Monetary Fund said in July that Guyana’s growth was “not being driven by oil alone.”

Its mission projected average non-oil growth of about 7 percent a year over the next five years. That estimate is lower than the 10.1 percent pace Guyana reported for the first half of 2026.

The gap suggests this year’s non-oil performance may be running ahead of the IMF’s medium-term baseline. That could change once slower-growing sectors catch up, or once oil-linked construction spending eases.

How This Compares With Recent Years

Guyana’s economy grew 19.3 percent in all of 2025, according to Finance Minister Ashni Singh. That made 2025 already one of the strongest growth years anywhere in the world.

The IMF put 2025 non-oil growth at about 14 percent, driven mainly by construction. Guyana’s non-oil economy has now expanded for six straight years since a contraction in 2020, the IMF said.

Back in June, Ali told an audience at Guyana’s International Building Expo that first-half growth was tracking “over 35 percent.”

The 33.3 percent figure released in September came in close to, but slightly below, that earlier estimate. Guyana’s growth forecasts have swung considerably within a single year before.

The jump from a 16.2 percent January forecast to a 20.8 percent September one illustrates that pattern. New oil output can move Guyana’s headline numbers faster than most other economies.

Questions About the Source

Guyana Times and other outlets attributed the 33.3 percent figure directly to President Ali’s remarks at Monday’s press conference. It was not immediately clear whether the number came from a published Bureau of Statistics report or preliminary Finance Ministry estimates.

Guyana’s Ministry of Finance typically issues a Mid-Year Report each year with detailed, sector-by-sector GDP data. Rio Times did not find that report publicly posted as of Tuesday.

Until it appears, the 33.3 percent figure should be treated as a government estimate rather than a finalized, audited statistic.

Kaieteur News reported in late August that Guyana was set to drive Caribbean growth even as the wider region struggled. That reporting was consistent with the direction, if not the exact size, of Monday’s announcement.

What It Means for Ordinary Guyanese

Ali said Monday that Guyana is “on the rise and on the move” both regionally and globally. He added that “every household” should see improvement in daily life as the economy grows.

Not all coverage has been as upbeat. Local broadcaster HGPTV published a report this year questioning whether fast GDP growth was translating into lower living costs for Guyanese families.

Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund, which holds oil revenue for future use, held more than US$4 billion in assets earlier this year. That fund is meant to convert today’s oil wealth into longer-term savings for the country.

Guyana received roughly US$761 million from its Stabroek offshore block in the first quarter of 2026 alone. That single quarter’s revenue underscores how central the offshore block has become to state income.

What Comes Next

Guyana’s government is expected to publish fuller GDP data later this year, likely through a Mid-Year Report from the Finance Ministry. That document should clarify the methodology behind the 33.3 percent figure.

Oil output is set to keep climbing as new offshore projects come online in the coming years. That trajectory makes further large swings in Guyana’s headline growth numbers likely, analysts say.

Whether non-oil growth of around 10 percent can be sustained will matter more to most Guyanese than the oil-inflated headline rate. Economists will be watching that non-oil figure closely when official data is finalized.

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