Global Economy Briefing, 24 September 2026: Firmer Dollar and a 5.116% US Yield Press Brazil’s Real
Global economy in one read: the US 10-year yield at 5.116% and a firmer dollar push Brazil’s real to 5.17, testing the 13.75% Selic path.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
Key Facts
- —The country. Brazil is the country this briefing leans on most. It has 213.6 million people, and President Lula da Silva has governed since 1 January 2023.
- —The money. The real ended 23 September at 5.1703 per US dollar, with the dollar up 1.36% on the day. Brazilians vote in the first round on 4 October 2026.
- —The background. Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the Copom, the central bank’s rate committee. It is 13.75% after a cut on 16 September 2026.
- —The news. On 23 September the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.116% and the dollar index to 101.184. Gold fell 1.72% to US$4,289 an ounce.
- —What is new. Our draft put Brazil’s IPCA-15 mid-month inflation reading on Thursday 24 September. The IBGE calendar sets it for Friday 25 September at 9:00 BRT.
- —What it means for you. A weaker real makes imported fuel, food, electronics and anything billed in dollars dearer. Wages paid in reais also buy less on a trip abroad.
- —The caveat. These levels are the 23 September close from our feed. Other providers logged gold nearer US$4,304, so read the last decimals as indicative, not official.
The Big Three
- US shares ease as yields keep pressure on risk The S&P 500 closed at 7,706, down 0.75%, with the Nasdaq off more than 1%. Higher-for-longer rate expectations keep equity valuations vulnerable and tighten financial conditions for emerging markets.
- Gold slides as the dollar and Treasury yields climb Spot gold fell 1.72% to US$4,289 an ounce while the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.116%. The dollar index firmed to 101.184, a mix that raises the price of external funding for Latin American borrowers.
- Brazil faces the classic dollar–Selic squeeze The real remains under pressure as a firmer dollar and elevated US yields complicate the BCB’s easing path. Friday’s IPCA-15 mid-month inflation print, due 25 September at 9:00 BRT, will shape how much room the central bank has to move.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable goods orders, August | — | 1.1% | Due Thursday |
| Durable goods ex transport | — | 0.4% | Due Thursday |
| 30-year mortgage rate | — | 6.95% | Showed firmness |
| Kansas Fed manufacturing index | — | 17 | Cooling expected |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany GfK consumer confidence | — | -26.6 | Seen falling to -27.4 |
| SNB policy rate | — | 0.00% | Hold likely |
| Riksbank policy rate | — | — | Decision due |
| Norges Bank policy rate | — | — | Decision due |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI | — | -0.4% | Est 0.53% MoM |
| Brazil IPCA mid-month YoY | — | 4.24% | Est 4.3% |
| Mexico interest rate | — | 6.5% | Hold expected |
| Mexico mid-month inflation | — | 3.26% | Seen rising to 3.37% |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,706 | -0.75% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 185,814 | -0.86% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1703 | +1.36% |
Global economy — Source: RT close, 2026-09-23. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Thursday, September 24, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | US | UN General Assembly | — | — |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 54 | 53.5 |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.7 | 52.5 |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55 | 54.9 |
| 04:00 | DE | New Car Sales | — | 23.8 |
| 08:00 | DE | Ifo Current Conditions | 89 | 88.5 |
| 08:00 | DE | Ifo Expectations | 89.3 | 89.1 |
| 08:00 | DE | Ifo Business Climate | 89 | 88.8 |
| 08:10 | US | Fed Williams Speech | — | — |
| 11:00 | BR | FGV Consumer Confidence | 86 | 84.7 |
| 11:00 | BR | BCB Inflation Report | — | — |
| 11:30 | CL | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | — | — |
| 12:00 | CL | Producer Price Index | 21 | 20.5 |
| 12:00 | MX | Mid-month Inflation Rate | 0.26 | 0.1 |
| 12:00 | MX | Mid-month Inflation Rate | 3.37 | 3.26 |
| 12:00 | MX | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate | 3.81 | 3.93 |
| 12:00 | MX | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate | 0.2 | 0.08 |
| 12:00 | MX | Economic Activity | 0.2 | -0.1 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Risk appetite loses altitude
US equities slipped as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.116% and the dollar index rose to 101.184. The Nasdaq fell hardest, down 1.13%, as expensive technology names feel the pull of higher discount rates.
Gold dropped 1.72% to US$4,289 an ounce, a sharp reversal for a metal that had been sheltering investors. The VIX rose 6.83% to 15.18, still tame but no longer flat.
For Latin America, the mix is unforgiving. A firm dollar and US yields near 5.1% raise the cost of external funding while making local carry trades less attractive, a direct headwind for the real and for Brazilian risk assets.
Brazil’s currency has been trading near R$5.15 per US dollar. That level leaves the BCB with less room to cut the Selic from 13.75% if imported inflation starts to bite.
02 The Fed’s shadow remains long
No Federal Reserve rate decision lands Thursday, but speeches from Fed officials and a heavy data calendar keep policy expectations live. Durable goods orders, jobless claims and housing data are due. The article’s table gives 1.1% as the prior headline durables reading and 0.4% as the prior ex-transport reading; no consensus is published.
A firm durable goods core reading would reinforce the view that the US economy can absorb restrictive policy; a soft print would revive bets on earlier easing. Either outcome can move the dollar and Treasury yields.
The seven-year note auction and a slew of Fed commentary, including Williams and Hammack, add event risk. For Brazil, every tick higher in US real yields forces local assets to work harder to attract capital.
The BCB National Monetary Council meeting and the central bank’s quarterly Inflation Report arrive Thursday. Investors will read both against a global backdrop where the Fed’s shadow is long and the dollar is strengthening.
03 A crowded policy corridor
Thursday is dense with central-bank decisions: the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank all announce policy, with Banxico following in the evening. Markets expect Banxico to hold at 6.5% even as Mexican inflation edges higher.
Brazil releases its IPCA-15 mid-month inflation index on Friday 25 September, with the monthly rate seen at 0.53% and the annual pace at 4.3%. The prior monthly print was negative, so a rebound here would test the BCB’s comfort with further Selic cuts.
Chile publishes monetary policy meeting minutes, Argentina reports economic activity and Colombia reports business confidence. These releases matter less as standalone data than as clues to how much policy space Latin America retains while US rates stay high.
A stronger dollar, gold’s retreat and climbing Treasury yields all point to tighter global financial conditions. Latin American policymakers now face a stark choice: follow their own disinflation paths or defend currencies against an unforgiving external environment.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: US durable goods orders, Fed speeches, Banxico rate decision at 13:00 Mexico City time, the BCB quarterly report and Germany GfK consumer confidence.
- Friday: CFTC positioning data for BRL, MXN, gold, S&P 500 and crude; Baker Hughes rig count.
- Next week: Watch Fed speakers and US inflation expectations for the next move in Treasury yields and the dollar; monitor Brazil’s real and Selic path.
- Ongoing: Track Brazil’s real near R$5.15, the 13.75% Selic, US 10-year yield above 5%, commodity prices and emerging-market capital flows.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did US stocks fall?
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.116%, making bonds more attractive relative to equities and raising the discount rate on future earnings.
What does the stronger dollar mean for Brazil?
A firmer dollar pushes the real weaker and increases imported-inflation risk, limiting the BCB’s room to keep cutting the Selic from 13.75%.
Why is the Mexico rate decision important?
Banxico is expected to hold at 6.5% even as inflation ticks up. A surprise cut or hawkish tone would move the peso and Mexican local bonds.
What should I watch on Thursday?
US durable goods orders, Banxico’s decision at 13:00 Mexico City time and the BCB quarterly report are the key event risks.
How does gold’s drop fit the picture?
Gold slid 1.72% to US$4,289 as real yields climbed, suggesting investors are rotating away from non-yielding havens into cash or short-dated Treasuries.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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