Global Weekly Economy Briefing: December 8–12, 2025

This was a “rates down, growth mixed” week. The clearest macro pivot came from the Fed cutting its policy rate to 3.75% on Wednesday, December 10.

Outside the US, central banks mostly stood pat, and the data painted an uneven map: Europe’s inflation looked contained, China’s trade surplus surged, and Australia’s labor market softened.

Two cross-currents mattered most. First, goods and trade were more resilient than many expected (Germany’s industry, China’s exports).

Second, household-facing momentum looked patchier (UK monthly GDP, Japan sentiment, Australia jobs).

Positioning data pointed to a market still cautious on US equities, while adding exposure in a few commodity and EM pockets.

United States

The Fed cut rates to 3.75% on December 10 from 4.00%. Job openings stayed high at 7.67M (October), while initial jobless claims rose to 236K (December 11).

Treasury demand was tested, with the 10-year auction at 4.175% and the 30-year at 4.773%. Energy data showed a crude draw of -1.812M barrels but a large gasoline build of 6.397M barrels.

What it means: The Fed is leaning toward a softer growth path, but labor indicators still argue against “all-clear” easing.

Europe and UK

Germany delivered a strong industrial print (+1.8% m/m in October) with CPI steady at 2.3% y/y in November.

France inflation stayed low (0.9% y/y), while Spain ran hotter (3.0% y/y). Credit markets stayed focused on front-end pricing, with short auctions around the low-2% area.

The UK looked weaker: October GDP was -0.1% m/m, construction fell -0.6% m/m, and the trade deficit widened to -22.54B.

What it means: The euro area is stabilizing around “low inflation, fragile growth,” while the UK is flirting with stagnation.

Asia ex-China

Japan’s tone was soft: Economy Watchers fell to 48.7, and the Reuters Tankan dropped to 10. Yet industrial production rose 1.5% m/m (October), and producer inflation held at 2.7% y/y.

Australia kept rates at 3.60% but then reported a -21.3K job decline, with unemployment at 4.3%. Korea’s unemployment edged up to 2.7%. Singapore reserves rose to $400.0B.

What it means: Asia looks like “policy on hold, data mixed,” with Australia flashing the clearest demand warning.

China

China was the week’s big trade story. November exports rose 5.9% y/y and imports 1.9% y/y, pushing the trade surplus to $111.68B. Inflation stayed low at 0.7% y/y, while PPI remained negative at -2.2% y/y.

Credit turned sharply higher: new loans were 390.0B and total social financing 2,490.0B in November, while M2 growth was 8.0% y/y.

What it means: External demand is helping, but the price backdrop is still disinflationary, so policy support via credit is doing more of the lifting.

Latin America

Mexico’s inflation re-accelerated: CPI rose 3.80% y/y and 0.66% m/m, with core at 4.43% y/y. Industrial production improved on the month (+0.7% m/m) but stayed negative y/y (-0.4%).

Brazil’s inflation eased to 4.46% y/y, and the central bank held rates at 15.00% on December 10.

Activity signals were mixed: services slowed (2.2% y/y in October), autos fell sharply m/m in November (production -11.6%, sales -8.5%), while retail sales improved (0.5% m/m in October). FX flows were BRL 4.709B ($872M).

What it means: Mexico is back in an inflation-management phase, while Brazil is holding a very restrictive stance as growth cools unevenly.

Africa

South Africa delivered a steadier set of prints. Retail sales rose 2.9% y/y (October). Mining output jumped 5.8%, while gold output fell -1.2% y/y.

Manufacturing was modestly positive (1.0% m/m; 0.2% y/y). Business confidence climbed further to 132.3 (November).

What it means: South Africa’s near-term momentum looks more cyclical than structural, but the tone is better than earlier in the year.

Bottom line

The week reshaped the global map into three buckets: the US is easing into slower growth, Europe is steady but fragile, and China is leaning on credit while trade helps.

For markets, the Fed cut lowers the bar for risk-taking, but the mix of sticky labor resilience, uneven consumer demand, and heavy sovereign issuance keeps volatility close.

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