Global Economy Briefing: January 16, 2026

Key Points

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• Europe’s inflation cooled again, reinforcing disinflation without a demand shock.

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• U.S. industry stayed firm, but homebuilder confidence weakened.

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• Brazil’s activity rebounded, while Canada’s housing starts jumped and portfolio inflows cooled.

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United States

\nIndustrial momentum held. Output rose 0.4% m/m in December and manufacturing rose 0.2% m/m. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.3%.
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\nThe soft spot was housing sentiment: NAHB fell to 37 from 39. Oil supply signals were steady (oil rigs 410; total 543).
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\nRead-through: goods are not collapsing, but housing remains rate-sensitive.
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Europe and UK

\nGermany confirmed lower inflation. CPI was 1.8% y/y with 0.0% m/m. HICP was 2.0% y/y with 0.2% m/m.
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\nItaly remained low and stable: CPI and HICP were 1.2% y/y with 0.2% m/m, and CPI ex-tobacco was 1.1% y/y. Bailey spoke for the BoE, keeping policy communication in focus.
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\nNet: disinflation is real, and it keeps the ECB/BoE in gradual mode.
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Latin America

\nBrazil surprised on activity. IBC-Br rose 0.70% m/m after −0.20%, signaling a stronger finish to 2025.
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\nPipeline inflation stayed benign: PPI fell 0.37% m/m after −0.47%. The IGP-10 rose 0.3% m/m, still modest.
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\nIndia’s reserves nudged up to $687.19B, keeping external buffers thick.
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Canada

\nHousing starts jumped to 282.4k from 254.6k, above expectations. Foreign purchases of Canadian securities slowed to C$16.33B from C$46.62B, while Canadians bought C$16.49B abroad after net selling previously.
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\nThat is a less supportive flow mix even as housing activity rose.
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Positioning and risk

\nCFTC showed rotation and caution. Gold length rose to 251.2k. Corn flipped to a net short (−33.4k) and soybeans length fell to 58.9k.
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\nEUR net length dropped to 132.7k and JPY swung to a net short (−45.2k). MXN longs eased to 103.6k.
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\nEquity index net shorts deepened (S&P 500 −122.1k). Read: less conviction in growth risk, more in hedges.
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What it means

\nThis was a “disinflation plus uneven growth” day. Europe’s lower inflation reduces global rate volatility. U.S. industry supports a soft landing, but housing remains a drag.
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\nBrazil’s activity rebound helps the regional growth story, especially with falling producer prices.
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\nCanada’s housing strength helps domestic demand, but weaker inflows bear watching.
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\nTilt: keep quality duration; favor U.S. services and selective industrials; add to Europe where margins benefit from lower input costs.
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\nIn LATAM, prefer Brazil carry on benign pipeline inflation but watch flows; keep a hedge bias given rising gold positioning.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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