Global Economy Briefing — August 25, 2026
Global economy: US yields eased as oil retreated and the dollar softened, keeping the Fed in focus ahead of Wednesday's PCE and Jackson Hole.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Global stocks limp into late August as yields stay high US stocks finished mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.28%, the Dow up 0.26% and the Nasdaq off 0.76%, as chip stocks sank on new US sanctions against Iran and the collapse of US–Canada trade talks. This keeps global financial conditions tight for Latin America, raising sensitivity of the real and local bond curves to any fresh bond sell-off.
- Yields ease as oil retreats, but the Fed’s bar for cuts stays high US 10-year yields eased to 4.701% as oil prices fell, unwinding part of last week’s supply-driven back-up toward 4.74%. Higher long-end yields raise the hurdle for aggressive Fed cuts, a key driver for capital flows into Brazil and other high-carry LatAm markets.
- Brazil’s Ibovespa rides external relief and Selic-cut hopes Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 0.51% to 171,907 points on Monday 24 August, its fourth straight gain, while the dollar edged up to R$5.153, as Vale and the banks led a commodity-and-value bid. Local futures now price room for more cuts after the August Copom meeting kept the door open, with the central bank’s Focus survey now seeing the Selic ending 2026 at 13.75%, one cut below the current 14.00%.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 close | 7,653, -0.28% | 7,674.37 | Tech drags, index holds above 7,600 |
| Dow Jones close | 53,417, +0.26% | 53,278 | Defensive names support blue chips |
| US 10-year yield | 4.701%, -0.74% | 4.736% | Yields ease but stay near recent highs |
| Gold spot | $4,662.68/oz, +1.04% | $4,608/oz | Haven flows return as VIX rises |
| VIX | 15.85, +4.76% | 15.13 | Modest fear pickup into month-end |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoxx Europe 600 weekly | -0.56% | previous week higher | Europe tracks global risk-off tone |
| DAX (context) | Softened late August | record area earlier | Ifo surveys and a two-year Schatz auction on tap |
| UK gilt yields (context) | Tracking US lower | elevated | Global bond calm helps UK duration |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil FGV consumer confidence | 88.6 est | 88.3 | Sentiment set to edge up |
| Mexico current account | $2,500m est | -$15,878m | Sharp swing to surplus expected |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,653 | -0.28% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 171,907 | +0.51% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1531 | +0.27% |
Global economy — Source: RT close, 2026-08-24. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Tuesday, August 25, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Index | 118.2 | 117.9 |
| 08:00 | DE | Ifo Business Climate | 87.2 | 86.6 |
| 08:00 | DE | Ifo Current Conditions | 87 | 86.5 |
| 08:00 | DE | Ifo Expectations | 87.5 | 86.7 |
| 09:30 | DE | 2-Year Schatz Auction | — | 2.78 |
| 11:00 | BR | FGV Consumer Confidence | 88.6 | 88.3 |
| 12:00 | US | Fed Barkin Speech | — | — |
| 12:55 | US | Redbook | — | 7.6 |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.8 | 442.4 |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 90.3 | 90.8 |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.62 | 0.628 |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -1 | -3 |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 7 | 5 |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 7 | 8 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Bond tremors keep risk appetite on a short leash
Wall Street ended mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.28% at 7,653 while the Dow added 0.26% to 53,417. The Nasdaq fell 0.76% to 25,980, confirming renewed pressure on rate-sensitive technology names.
Gold jumped 1.04% to $4,662.68 an ounce, a clear safe-haven bid while the VIX climbed 4.76% to 15.85. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.701%, down 0.74% on the day, offering some relief after last week’s bond rout.
For Latin America, this is the knife-edge: a softer long end helps carry currencies like the Brazilian real, but a dollar index near 98.7, close to its lowest since mid-May, has been the main tailwind for commodities. Brazil’s IPCA mid-month inflation reading due Wednesday will set the local tone against this global backdrop.
02 Fed cuts still priced, but the bar for bold moves is high
The downtick in the 10-year yield to 4.701% does not erase last week’s supply scare, when the benchmark closed at 4.74% on Friday and the 30-year held near 5.3%. Those levels remain close enough to keep the Fed on a cautious path.
Markets still price further cuts, but the balance has shifted away from the most aggressive easing packages. Resilient US growth and sticky core PCE near 3.3% year-on-year are stiff headwinds for dovish bets.
For Brazil, a slower and shallower Fed cycle caps how far the Selic can fall without hurting carry appeal. The real at R$5.1443 per dollar remains sensitive to any yield spike, as local traders learned during August’s swings.
03 LatAm watches inflation prints and soft-dollar windows
Brazil’s mid-month IPCA due Wednesday follows a 4.52% annual reading in July. A soft monthly print would still leave the twelve-month rate close to 4.5%, a rare deflationary month that could strengthen arguments for more Selic cuts.
Mexico’s current account is forecast to swing to a surplus of $2.5 billion from a prior deficit of roughly $15.9 billion. A healthy external balance would buffer the peso against global funding pressures.
The takeaway for foreign investors is that Latin America still offers nominal carry, but the margin of safety depends squarely on US yields staying below Friday’s peaks. Gold’s jump and the higher VIX are warnings that the calm is conditional.
What to watch today and this week
- Wednesday: Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI and consumer confidence; US PCE, durable goods and personal spending arrive before the Treasury 5-year auction
- Thursday: US jobless claims and advance goods trade balance; the Jackson Hole symposium opens; European bond auction results set global yield tone
- Friday: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote; month-end index rebalancing across LatAm equities
- Next week: Brazil formal CPI for August; US payrolls and ISM in early September; Mexico remittances data
- Ongoing: Any sustained move in the 10-year above 4.75% would pressure the real and local curves
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the 10-year Treasury yield matter for Brazil?
Higher US yields reduce the appeal of emerging-market carry trades, weakening demand for the real and local bonds.
What is the Selic rate path?
After August Copom kept the door open, private forecasts now see the 2026 terminal Selic at 13.75%, a quarter-point lower than earlier expectations.
How does a soft dollar help Latin America?
A weaker DXY index makes commodities cheaper for global buyers and reduces dollar debt burdens for regional corporates and governments.
Why did gold rise while stocks fell?
Gold’s 1.04% gain reflects safe-haven demand as the VIX jumped, suggesting investors are hedging against month-end and yield uncertainty.
What should investors watch in Brazil this week?
The IPCA mid-month reading will show whether the monthly decline is enough to cement expectations for another Selic cut.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.