Poll: Bolsonaro Would Beat Lula, Moro and Doria in Presidential Election Scenarios

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – If the presidential elections were today, President Jair Bolsonaro would be reelected in any scenario. In the first round, the President would secure 30 percent of the vote, against 18 percent for former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and ten percent for ex-Minister Sérgio Moro. Ciro Gomes, with nine percent, Luciano Huck, with five percent, and João Doria, with four percent, also figured in the poll.

In the case of a second round dispute, Moro would be the candidate with the best chances of facing Bolsonaro. The ex-Minister stands with 35 percent of the voting intentions, and the President with 41 percent. Against Lula, Bolsonaro would get 43 percent of the vote, compared to 33 percent for the PT candidate. Against the governor of São Paulo, the president has a higher advantage, with 42 percent of voting intentions, and Doria with 21 percent.

The data are part of the most recent EXAME/IDEIA poll. Every two weeks, EXAME/IDEIA features exclusive opinion polls focused on the political scenario.

The overall poll numbers fluctuated within the error margin of three percentage points plus or minus from that recorded in the poll in late August. The new poll was conducted by phone with 1,200 people in all regions of Brazil between October 5th and 8th.

“Both polls scenarios are very similar. But I emphasize that in this round Bolsonaro holds a large majority among those who declare themselves evangelical (45 percent). He is also favored among the poorest (31 percent), mainly because of the emergency aid,” said Maurício Moura, founder of IDEIA.

The poll also stratified the votes by schooling and region. Bolsonaro wins in all scenarios, with the most significant advantage among those with only primary education (37 percent). By region, the highest margin is recorded in the North (38 percent), Midwest (35 percent) and Northeast (31 percent). The President’s recent visits to northeastern states are resulting in drawing votes from what was once a PT majority stronghold.

Analyzing income criteria, Bolsonaro also has a majority in all strata. The advantage is found in class C, where 31 percent said they would vote for him if the elections were held today. In classes A and B the President has 27 percent of voting intentions. Among the poorest, in classes D and E, he holds 24 percent.

In the poorest section of the population, following the President, Ciro Gomes and TV presenter Luciano Huck would be the most voted in the first round and would each get 18 percent of voting intentions.

Approval

The poll also wanted to know if voters are satisfied with the way the President governs. After a break in the upward trend, the Bolsonaro government’s approval rating rose again to 39 percent. Those who disapprove of the President’s management total 42 percent.

“This shows how the Brazilian population is highly split between supporters and those who do not support the government. Bolsonaro’s popularity shows that he is already in his second term and the opposition is highly diluted,” says Moura.

Source: Exame