Ecopetrol’s US$60 Oil Stress Test Reveals Colombia’s Budget Exposure

Key Points

• A Brent price near US$60 could cut Ecopetrol’s 2025 profit by about 40%, to roughly COP 8.9 trillion from COP 14.9 trillion.
• Estimates suggest each US$1 move in Brent shifts Ecopetrol revenue by about COP 0.8 trillion, and a stronger peso can deepen the hit.
• If cash flow shrinks, state transfers can fall fast, tightening Colombia’s 2026 fiscal math.

Brent’s slide toward US$59, after OPEC+ signaled higher output and analysts pointed to an oversupply near 500,000 barrels a day, looks like oil volatility. In Colombia it becomes a national balance-sheet story, because Ecopetrol links global prices to public finances.

Energy economist Sergio Cabrales estimates that if Brent holds around US$60, Ecopetrol’s 2025 profit could drop about 40% versus 2024, to roughly COP 8.9 trillion after COP 14.9 trillion last year.

Corficolombiana analysts use a blunt rule: every US$1 fall in Brent costs Ecopetrol about COP 0.8 trillion in revenue. Using 2024 operational revenue of COP 133.32 trillion, that points to a 2025 revenue hit near COP 10 trillion under lower oil prices.

The exchange rate is the second lever. The peso strengthened from about COP 4,180 per dollar in March to roughly COP 3,850 by mid-December, which means fewer pesos per export dollar.

Colombia’s Oil Revenue Sensitivity

One estimate says each 1% appreciation trims revenue by about COP 0.7 trillion and profit by COP 0.4 trillion. This is the story behind the story: Colombia’s oil exposure shows up in budget lines.

The Finance Ministry has penciled in Ecopetrol transfers of about COP 7.78 trillion, but analysts warn the gap could be about COP 2.68 trillion in a weaker oil-and-FX mix.

Projections also suggest transfers could slide toward COP 5.1 trillion in 2026 if Brent stays below US$62, reducing the contribution from about 0.4% of GDP to 0.3%.

President Gustavo Petro warned that US$55 oil would make many fields unprofitable. Analysts counter Ecopetrol’s breakeven is nearer US$50 for profit and about US$35 for EBITDA, meaning the pain would be uneven rather than total.

Ecopetrol is planning defensively: COP 22–27 trillion of 2026 investment and 730,000–740,000 boe/day, budgeted on Brent at US$60 and FX near COP 4,050. No details here were invented.