Economic Pulse: Latin America’s Week Ahead

As December unfolds, Latin America’s economic landscape takes center stage. From Brazil’s GDP to inflation figures across Colombia, Chile, and Peru, the region braces for a week of crucial economic indicators.

These reports will shed light on the health of various economies and their trajectories as 2024 draws to a close.

Brazil

Brazil’s economic landscape shows mixed signals as 2024 draws to a close. The country’s inflation outlook for 2024 has stabilized at 4.63%, slightly above the government’s 3% target tolerance ceiling.

However, analysts have raised their inflation forecast for 2025 to 4.34%, marking the sixth consecutive increase. The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been revised upward to 3.17%, indicating a positive economic trajectory.

In October, Brazil’s annual inflation rate climbed to 4.76%, the highest in a year. This increase was primarily driven by rising food and beverage prices (6.65%) and housing and utilities costs (6.12%). The central bank has responded to these inflationary pressures with two interest rate hikes this year.

Colombia

Colombia’s inflation rate continues its downward trend, easing to 5.41% in October 2024, the lowest reading since November 20212. This marks the fourth consecutive month of slowing inflation, falling below market expectations of 5.71%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined by 0.13%, the first decrease since November 20212.

The country’s inflation rate is expected to reach 5.50% by the end of the current quarter, with projections of 4.00% in 2025 and 3.50% in 20262. These figures suggest a gradual return to the central bank’s target range.

Chile

Chile’s inflation rate unexpectedly accelerated to 4.7% in October 2024, up from 4.1% in September. This increase was driven by rising prices in housing and utilities (3.1%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.2%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices surged by 1%, marking the strongest rise since March 20235.

The country’s core inflation rate also increased, with core consumer prices rising by 0.2% in October. These figures indicate persistent inflationary pressures in the Chilean economy.

Peru

Peru’s core inflation rate stood at 2.74% in September 2024, showing a slight decrease from the previous month’s 2.96%. The country’s inflation rate is projected to reach 3.50% by the end of the current quarter, with long-term expectations of around 3.00% in 2025.

The trend suggests a relatively stable inflationary environment compared to some of its regional counterparts.