The US dollar remained steady against the Brazilian real on Thursday, influenced by Ptax rate determinations and US inflation data aligning with predictions.
This situation suggests the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates in June.
The spot dollar saw a marginal increase of 0.01%, closing at 4.9717 reals. Throughout February, the dollar experienced a 0.67% rise.
Meanwhile, the leading dollar futures contract on the B3 rose by 0.37%, reaching 4.9835 reals by late afternoon.
Early in the day, the dollar’s fluctuation intensified due to the Ptax rate dispute.
This benchmark exchange rate is set by Brazil’s Central Bank and affects future contract settlements.
Market participants engage in strategic moves to influence the rate to benefit their financial positions.
Investor maneuvers and protective dollar purchases before the US PCE index data drove dollar futures to peak at 4.9997 reals.
The US Commerce Department’s report on the PCE index showed a 0.3% increase for January, with a downward revision for December’s data.
This placed the annual PCE inflation rate at 2.4%, the lowest since early 2021.
These numbers, meeting economists’ forecasts, boosted prospects for a Fed rate cut in June, impacting US Treasury rates and the dollar’s value against other currencies.
Following the PCE release, the dollar momentarily dipped in Brazil, underscoring the market’s response to expected US inflation trends and potential Fed actions.
The post-Ptax period saw the dollar’s volatility settle, despite it regaining strength globally.
In February, Brazil’s Central Bank recorded a $2.317 billion negative foreign exchange flow, marked by financial outflows and commercial inflows.
Additionally, the Central Bank successfully rolled over currency swap contracts due in April, emphasizing the day’s strategic financial activities.