Costa Rica Heads Into A Low-Heat Election With Crime Fears And A Chaves Shadow

Key Points

• A Feb. 1 vote will pick Costa Rica’s next president and a 57-seat legislature, with security dominating public mood.
• A late-January CIEP-UCR poll put pro-government candidate Laura Fernández at the 40% threshold that can avoid a runoff.
• The race is shaped by President Rodrigo Chaves’ popularity and an opposition split across many parties.

Costa Rica goes to the polls on February 1 to choose a president and 57 lawmakers for the 2026–2030 term. The campaign has lacked the festive feel the country once celebrated. Many voters sound tired, cautious, and focused on public safety.

President Rodrigo Chaves is not on the ballot because Costa Rica bars immediate re-election. Even so, he dominates the debate. His ally, former minister Laura Fernández Delgado, is running under the Partido Pueblo Soberano.

A CIEP-UCR poll taken in mid-January placed her at the 40% line needed for a first-round win. The same polling cycle put Chaves’ approval near the high-50s, giving his camp a powerful megaphone in a quiet race.

The stakes are larger than a personality contest. If Fernández wins and the ruling movement secures major control of Congress, it could reshape the balance between the executive and watchdog institutions.

Supporters call it a chance to break gridlock and move faster. Critics warn it could weaken checks and balances that long made Costa Rica a regional outlier. Crime is the accelerant. Costa Rica has lived through its worst violence wave in modern history.

Rising violence hardens Costa Rica politics

The OIJ reported 873 homicides in 2025, only slightly below 2024, with 2023 still the record high. That reality is pushing voters toward tougher rhetoric and simpler promises.

Chaves’ government has tied its approach to El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. On January 14, Bukele joined Chaves in Costa Rica for a symbolic launch of the planned CACCO high-security prison, a $35 million project designed for about 5,100 inmates.

Backers see deterrence and capacity. Opponents see an imported model with heavy civil-liberty costs. Tensions have spilled into the campaign tone.

Several candidates and journalists describe intimidation fears, mostly online, and a harsher climate toward critics. Meanwhile, an alleged plot against Chaves has added volatility.

Authorities opened an investigation, while the named activist publicly denied involvement and disputed the evidence. With many parties and undecided voters, the final days will decide whether Costa Rica heads to a runoff or hands the governing camp a clearer mandate.

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