Copper’s Record Surge Breaks, but Tight Supply Still Sets the Tone

Key Points

• Copper hit a new high near $11,952/ton, then slid more than 3% as a tech-led selloff hit risk assets.
• Supply disruptions and inventory distortions are keeping buyers active despite China demand unease.
• ETFs and physical holdings show investors remain involved, even as short-term signals cool.

Copper started Monday with Friday’s reversal still dominating talk: a jump to a record near $11,952 per metric ton, followed by a sharp pullback as liquidation spread across commodities. Early trade had LME three-month copper back in the mid-$11,000s per ton.

In the U.S., COMEX copper was around the mid-$5.3s per pound and a tracked CFD snapshot showed about $5.40/lb. In China, the main SHFE copper contract was near 92,290 yuan a ton.

The near-term debate is macro versus metal. China worries—especially around property and softer demand signals—have made traders cautious at record levels.

But the physical story remains tight, with mine disruptions and constrained concentrate supply limiting downside. ING’s Ewa Manthey said supply problems should “keep a floor under prices around the $11,000/t level.”

Flow effects are amplifying the squeeze. When the COMEX–LME spread opens, dealers say metal can be drawn into the U.S., tightening availability elsewhere and lifting regional premiums even if the headline price wobbles.

Copper Momentum Pauses as Flows Persist

For traders, it is another session where discipline beats slogans. Financial demand is still showing up. CPER, a U.S. copper futures ETF, has posted recent net inflows, and COPX, a copper-miners equity proxy, has also attracted fresh money.

Sprott’s physical copper vehicle has accumulated close to 10,000 tons and remains sharply higher this year. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Daan de Jonge said, “Investors will buy copper-related assets such as ETFs,” while Macquarie’s Alice Fox said bullishness is being driven by “the narrative around tight supply.”

Technicals now point to a pause. LME volumes in recent snapshots were in the low-thousands of lots, and SHFE warehouse stocks were cited as slightly higher on the week.

On your charts, the 4-hour RSI has slipped below 50 and MACD has rolled over, while the daily RSI remains in the high-50s with MACD still positive. Resistance sits around $5.41–$5.42/lb, with support near $5.32 and then $5.19–$5.20.

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