Oil Tries To Rebound On Venezuela Shock, But Surplus Fears Still Rule The Tape

Key Points

• A fresh squeeze in Venezuela-linked shipping pushed crude higher early Monday, after a steep weekly drop.
• Traders still see a well-supplied 2026, with banks and agencies warning that supply growth may outrun demand.
• Charts show stabilization on the four-hour window, but the daily trend remains bearish unless key levels break.

Oil opened the week trying to claw back losses as Washington intensified pressure on Venezuelan crude flows. Reuters reported that Venezuela’s exports have fallen sharply after the U.S. seized a tanker and sanctioned shipping linked to Venezuelan oil.

Officials are also preparing additional ship interceptions. That headline revived a familiar 2025 theme: barrels do not need to disappear globally to move prices—only to look less reliable.

In early trade, Brent hovered near $61.4 a barrel and WTI around $57.7, both up roughly half a percent. The bounce came after a bruising prior week in which Brent and WTI fell more than 4%, ending Friday near $61.1 and $57.4, respectively.

The market had briefly popped midweek on the same Venezuela story, then slipped back as traders refocused on surplus expectations. Two quotes captured the tug-of-war.

Tsuyoshi Ueno of NLI Research Institute said optimism and caution around Russia–Ukraine peace talks have been swinging prices.

He warned that oversupply risks still dominate and that WTI could dip below $55 early next year without a sharper geopolitical jolt. Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates was blunter: the market is being weighed down by the supply situation.

On fundamentals, the International Energy Agency sees demand growth of about 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 in 2026, but its broader balance narrative has reinforced fears of a large oversupply next year.

JPMorgan’s commodities team expects surpluses to widen into 2026–2027, projecting supply growth outpacing demand.

U.S. data offered mixed texture: the EIA’s latest weekly report showed crude inventories down 1.8 million barrels to 425.7 million, while Baker Hughes reported 414 oil rigs, up one on the week.

In the background, Reuters flagged a fire alert at Imperial Oil’s 120,000 bpd Ontario refinery facility. Technically, both benchmarks look steadier on the 4-hour charts (RSI in the low-40s and MACD pressure easing), but the daily setup still signals a market that sells rallies.

For Brent, resistance sits around $61.6–$62.2, with support near $61.1 then $60.6. For WTI, support clusters near $57.4 then $56.8, with resistance around $57.7–$58.6. Until those ceilings break, the rebound looks more like relief than reversal.

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