Silver Breaks To Fresh Records As ETF Money And Tight Supply Trump Thin Year-End Liquidity
Key Points
- Silver surged to around $68.9/oz and briefly tagged record territory near $69.44/oz as investors chased momentum and rate-cut expectations.
- ETF inflows and a stubborn supply deficit are reinforcing the rally, even as dealers warn that thin holiday trading can magnify reversals.
- Charts show a powerful uptrend, but momentum gauges are stretched, making the next pullback as important as the next high.
Silver started the week in full sprint, trading near $68.9 an ounce around 07:45 UTC after an overnight push into record levels.
The session range was roughly $67.17 to $69.45, and spot printed a new peak near $69.44 in early European hours. The move capped a strong seven-day run: from about $63.87 on Dec. 16 to roughly $68.95 by Dec. 22, a gain of around 8%.
The rally has two engines. One is macro: markets have leaned harder into 2026 rate-cut expectations, helping precious metals as real yields cool and the dollar loses momentum.
The other is specific to silver: persistent talk of a supply deficit and rising industrial pull, tied to AI-linked data-center buildouts, solar installations, and electric vehicles.
Adding a policy tailwind, silver’s inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list has helped frame the metal as more than a hedge. Positioning and plumbing matter, too.
Parts of the physical market have periodically tightened, with attention on London liquidity and how much vaulted metal is tied up through ETFs.
In New York, COMEX silver futures activity stayed heavy: CME data for Dec. 19 showed about 104,667 contracts traded and open interest near 158,126. Another market snapshot put same-day volume around 41,000 contracts.
ETF demand has been loud. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) reported 16,066.24 tonnes (about 516.54 million ounces) in the trust as of Dec. 19, with about 42.61 million shares trading that day.
Weekly flow estimates pointed to roughly $272.9 million into SLV, while abrdn’s SIVR showed about $322.79 million of net inflows over five days (as of Dec. 18).
Technically, the trend is undeniable. Daily RSI sits near 78.8 and the 4-hour RSI near 74.4, both signaling stretched momentum. MACD remains strongly positive on both timeframes.
The market’s first test is whether it can hold above $67.1–$67.3 on dips, with mid-$66s as the next line. Resistance is now the record band around $69.4–$69.5. Dealers’ warning is simple: year-end liquidity can make both breakouts and pullbacks look bigger than they are.
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