Colombia’s Right Surges Before the Vote, Lifting the Market

COLOMBIA · ELECTIONS

Colombia’s right has surged in the final stretch before the May 31 presidential vote, with far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella overtaking his center-right rival and rewiring the runoff math, a shift the stock market greeted with its strongest two-day rally of the year.

Why Colombia’s Right Surged So Late

Colombia’s right spent most of the campaign divided between two candidates. In the final stretch, one of them pulled clearly ahead. Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right lawyer running on the Defensores de la Patria movement, has overtaken center-right senator Paloma Valencia as the main challenger to the left.

Pollsters agree on the direction. The Guarumo survey for El Tiempo called de la Espriella the candidate with the most momentum in the final weeks, reaching his best reading of the year. Invamer found him drawing support from centrist voters, an unusual reach for a hard-right contender.

Valencia, by contrast, has stalled since winning the right’s March primary. A month ago many analysts treated her as the likely runoff challenger. That assumption no longer holds.

How the Runoff Math Changed

Iván Cepeda, the senator carrying President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact coalition, still leads the first round in nearly every poll, with readings ranging from the high 30s to the mid 40s depending on the firm. He is not expected to reach the majority needed to win outright. That sends the contest to a runoff on June 21.

What changed is the runoff. As recently as April, Invamer showed Cepeda beating de la Espriella comfortably in a head-to-head, by about twelve points. The latest figures show that lead shrinking.

Two firms now show de la Espriella ahead. AtlasIntel, an online pollster, put him beating Cepeda by roughly eight points in a runoff, while Guarumo showed him narrowly in front for the first time. Other firms, including Invamer and the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, still give Cepeda the edge.

Why the Market Re-Rated

Investors read the shift as friendlier to markets. The MSCI COLCAP, Colombia’s main stock index, jumped 4.48% on Tuesday to 2,228.30, its strongest two-day run of the year, and closed back above its 200-day moving average. The index had fallen for weeks as the election loomed.

The logic is about the runoff, not any single result. A more competitive opposition raises the perceived odds of a change of economic direction, which equity investors have tended to favor. De la Espriella has pledged incentives for private investment and support for the mining and energy sectors.

Prediction markets have moved the same way. Polymarket, an international betting platform, has shifted toward de la Espriella as its favorite to win the presidency, slightly ahead of Cepeda. That gap with traditional polls, which still show Cepeda leading the first round, is itself part of the story.

The Catch: Rejection, Method, and Risk

The surge carries real caveats. De la Espriella is a polarizing figure, and surveys show far more voters reject him outright than reject Valencia. By that measure some analysts argued Valencia was the right’s more electable runoff card, even as he won the first-round contest within the right.

Method matters too. AtlasIntel, the firm showing the right strongest, samples online, while most others poll by phone or in person, which can produce different results. Colombia also restricts late polling, and a magistrate sought to block one survey’s release, so these are the last public readings before the vote.

Other risks remain live. The campaign has unfolded amid political violence, including the 2025 assassination of a presidential hopeful, and de la Espriella has alleged a plot against him. Turnout, vote transfers, and a large undecided bloc could still reshape the result.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Abelardo de la Espriella?

He is a prominent far-right lawyer running on the Defensores de la Patria movement, with Juan Manuel Restrepo as his running mate. He campaigns on a hard-line, anti-establishment, law-and-order platform.

Has the right united behind one candidate?

Not formally, but in practice de la Espriella has pulled ahead of Paloma Valencia as the strongest opposition contender in the final polls. Valencia, who won the right’s March primary, has stalled.

Is Cepeda still the favorite?

He leads the first round in nearly every survey but is not expected to win outright on May 31. The June 21 runoff is where the contest is now seen as competitive.

Why did Colombian stocks rise?

Investors read a more competitive opposition as raising the odds of a change of economic direction, which markets have tended to favor. The index gained 4.48% on Tuesday.

How reliable are these polls?

They agree on the direction but differ on the runoff outcome, partly because of different methods. Colombia restricts late polling, so these are the final public readings before the vote.

Connected Coverage

For more on the contest, see The Rio Times on the right-of-center split earlier in the race and our final-stretch polling roundup. We also covered the candidates’ closing campaign rallies.

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