Colombia’s Peso Holds Firm As Stocks Hit Records, But Crowding Risks Rise

Key Points

1. The peso stayed strong near 3,687 per dollar as government-related FX conversions and seasonal USD selling kept supply high.
2. Colombia’s MSCI COLCAP pushed to a new record around 2,287, powered by energy and banks, with heavy trading in the iCOLCAP ETF.
3. Both FX and equities look stretched on momentum signals, making the market vulnerable to a sharp reversal on politics, inflation, or a stronger U.S. dollar.

Colombia woke up to a familiar split screen: a firm peso and a red-hot equity market, both moving as if confidence were the base case.

The official TRM for Friday is 3,687.32 COP per dollar, after Thursday’s trade hovered around the high-3,600s and briefly stretched from roughly 3,665 to 3,712.

Activity was heavy, near 2,755 trades and about US$1.77 billion in turnover, consistent with a market driven by flows more than fear.

Two local forces dominated the narrative. First, traders kept focusing on the government’s external funding pipeline and the expectation that incoming dollars get converted into pesos, adding USD supply.

Second, early-year seasonality often brings corporate dollar selling ahead of tax obligations, reinforcing the same direction.

Strategists also flagged crowded long-peso positioning, plus inflation anxiety after the minimum-wage reset, and the usual election-year sensitivity to policy tone and Colombia–U.S. headlines.

Globally, risk sentiment steadied as oil fell more than 4% after comments that cooled immediate Iran escalation fears, while the dollar index remained near the 99-handle. In that environment, the peso’s next test is not today’s calm, but the first genuine risk-off jolt.

Stocks, meanwhile, looked almost unstoppable. The MSCI COLCAP ended Thursday up about 1.14% at roughly 2,287, with about COP 329.7 billion in volume.

Winners included Ecopetrol (+4.60%), Cemargos (+3.72%), Banco de Bogotá (+2.73%), PF Davivienda Group (+2.46%), and ISA (+2.43%).

The laggards list was shorter, but included Enka (-2.05%), BBVA Colombia (-1.32%), Grupo Argos Pref (-0.75%), Grupo Cibest (-0.64%), and PF Davivienda (-0.53%).

Technically, USD/COP is consolidating on the 4-hour chart (neutral RSI) while the daily trend still leans lower, and the weekly setup hints at an oversold dollar.

COLCAP momentum is far more extreme, with RSI readings deep in “overheated” territory on both 4-hour and daily views. That is good news for trend followers, and a warning for anyone arriving late.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombian markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Chile’s IPSA closed the same session.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Africa Intelligence Brief — January 16, 2026